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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by -1.12% to settle at 1,50,027, pressured by rising oil prices and escalating inflation concerns amid stalled US-Iran negotiations. A lack of progress in diplomatic talks has heightened fears of prolonged energy supply disruptions, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. While gold typically acts as an inflation hedge, rising interest rate expectations reduce its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset. Market participants are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision, with expectations of a hold but a potentially hawkish tone. On the demand side, physical markets showed mixed signals. China’s gold imports via Hong Kong rose 3.5% month-on-month to 47.866 metric tons in March, reflecting resilient demand, while total imports surged nearly 25%. The People’s Bank of China continued its buying streak for the 17th consecutive month, taking reserves to 74.38 million troy ounces. In India, gold premiums rose to over two-and-a-half-month highs due to tighter supplies, partly caused by delays in import authorisations. However, retail demand remained subdued despite the Akshaya Tritiya festival. Globally, central banks remained net buyers, adding 25 tons in the first two months of the year. Meanwhile, India’s gems and jewellery exports declined 3.3% in FY2025/26, with shipments to the US dropping sharply by 45%, reflecting trade disruptions and weaker demand. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 5.44% to 9,192, indicating new short positions entering the market. Gold is currently supported at 1,48,540, with a break below likely to test 1,47,050 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1,51,660, and a move above could push prices towards 1,53,290 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147050-153290.

* Gold plunged as surging oil prices and stalled US-Iran negotiations intensified inflation concerns.

* President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to resolve the two-month conflict.

* China's March net gold imports via Hong Kong rise 3.5% from February

Silver

Silver prices declined by -1.85% to settle at 2,37,345, weighed down by rising inflation concerns linked to escalating US-Iran tensions and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated crude oil prices have strengthened expectations that central banks may maintain a tighter monetary stance for longer. While precious metals typically benefit from inflationary environments, the prospect of higher interest rates reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. Markets are now closely tracking the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, with expectations of a pause but a more hawkish tone. On the macro front, US labor data indicated moderate stability, with private sector job additions averaging 39,250 per week in early April, slightly lower than the previous period, suggesting a gradual cooling in hiring momentum. Meanwhile, China’s silver demand remains a key supportive factor. Imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the historical average, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic (PV) sector ahead of policy changes. This robust demand has pushed domestic Chinese silver prices above global benchmarks, encouraging arbitrage-driven inflows. Additionally, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, indicating ample global inventory levels despite strong regional demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest sharply declining by -70.9% to 2,251, indicating significant unwinding of existing long positions. Silver is currently finding support at 2,32,620, with a break below potentially testing 2,27,890 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2,41,665, and a move above could push prices towards 2,45,980 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 227890-245980.

* Silver dropped as ongoing US-Iran tensions boosted crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears.

* US private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending April 11, 2026

* Fed is poised to hold rates steady, possibly in Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, with markets parsing signals on future policy.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 4.16% to settle at 9,485, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, has significantly constrained Middle East exports, fueling bullish sentiment. However, gains were partially capped after the United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+, raising concerns over cohesion within the producer alliance. The disruption has intensified fears of a major supply shock, with projections indicating energy prices could rise sharply in 2026. Fundamentally, the market remains highly sensitive to supply risks despite emerging demand concerns. The International Energy Agency has warned of an unprecedented supply shock, while Citi projects Brent prices could spike to $150 per barrel if disruptions persist. At the same time, S&P Global has reduced its 2026 demand growth forecast by 700,000 barrels per day due to the economic impact of the conflict, with Q2 demand expected to weaken. Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed mixed signals, with crude stocks rising by 1.9 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined sharply, indicating resilient downstream demand. OPEC has also revised down its Q2 global demand estimate to 105.07 million bpd, although it expects recovery in the second half of the year. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising sharply by 29.3% to 15,909, indicating new long positions entering the market. Crude oil is currently supported at 9,214, with a break below potentially testing 8,943 levels. On the upside, resistance is seen at 9,702, and a move above could extend gains towards 9,919 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8943-9919.

* Crude oil gained as stalled efforts to end the Iran war kept ‌the Strait of Hormuz largely closed, constraining Middle East supplies.

* IEA has warned of a potential unprecedented supply shock, alongside growing risks of a slowdown in global demand.

* UAE decides to exit OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled lower by -1.53% at 257.5, pressured by expectations of mild weather conditions that are likely to suppress both heating and early cooling demand, allowing continued above-normal storage injections. Seasonal dynamics remain a key bearish driver, with the market transitioning through the spring refill phase amid subdued consumption patterns. On the supply side, output trends have shown some moderation, offering partial support. Average production in the U.S. Lower 48 states declined to 110.1 bcfd in April from 110.4 bcfd in March, with daily output slipping to a multi-week low of around 108.3 bcfd as lower spot prices prompted producers to scale back activity. However, this supply adjustment has been insufficient to offset the impact of weak demand and robust storage builds. Inventory data continues to reinforce a bearish near-term outlook. U.S. natural gas storage rose by 103 bcf for the week ended April 17, significantly exceeding both market expectations of 94 bcf and the five-year average injection of 64 bcf. Total stockpiles reached 2.063 tcf, standing 7.4% above last year and 7.1% above the seasonal average, indicating ample supply availability. Looking ahead, the EIA projects production to rise to record levels in 2026, while demand is expected to soften before recovering in 2027, keeping the broader market well-supplied. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 15.97% to 30,005, signaling new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is seen at 254.7, with a break potentially testing 251.9. On the upside, resistance is placed at 261.1, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 264.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 251.9-264.7.

* Natural gas eased on expectations mild weather will allow energy firms to keep injecting more gas than usual into storage.

* However, downside seen limited amid a drop in output in recent weeks and near-record liquefied natural gas exports.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 110.1 bcfd so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March.

Copper

Copper prices declined by -1.51% to settle at 1277, pressured by a stronger dollar, persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and concerns over slowing global economic growth. Weakening demand signals from China, the largest consumer, further weighed on sentiment, while inflation risks and cautious central bank outlooks added to market pressure. On the fundamentals, supply-side dynamics offered some support despite bearish macro cues. Global smelters entering scheduled maintenance in Q2 have tightened refined supply, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped sharply by 16.3%, indicating improving physical demand conditions. Additionally, pre-holiday restocking ahead of China’s Labor Day provided short-term support. However, this was offset by rising inventories on the Comex exchange, which hit a record 603,745 short tons due to arbitrage-driven inflows into the U.S. From a broader perspective, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects a refined copper surplus of 96,000 metric tons in 2026 and 377,000 tons in 2027, reflecting slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Global mine output is expected to grow moderately, though disruptions in key regions like Chile and Indonesia may limit upside. China’s imports fell 10.9% YoY in March, while refined output rose 8.7%, indicating a shift toward domestic supply strength. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by -1.2% to 12,140, suggesting position unwinding amid price weakness. Immediate support is seen at 1261.1, with a break below potentially testing 1245.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1295.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1314.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1245.1-1314.5.

* Copper prices fell due to a stronger dollar, concerns about global economic growth and fears over inflation.

* The Middle East uncertainty and softer activity in top metals consumer China weigh on the demand outlook for copper.

* Anglo American reported Q1 2026 copper production of 170,400 tonnes, up 1% year on year.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by -1.3% to settle at 341.8, pressured by news that Swedish miner Boliden plans to resume production at its Garpenberg mine in Q2, easing some supply concerns. However, losses remained limited as near-term supply tightness continues to underpin the market amid constrained raw material availability. Fundamentally, the market reflects a mixed supply scenario. LME inventories have been trending lower, while the narrowing Cash-3M contango indicates a tightening physical market structure. Treatment charges (TCs) for zinc concentrate have continued to decline, signaling restricted feedstock availability for smelters. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also dropped by 1.8%, and port inventories of zinc concentrate fell sharply by 12,100 mt week-on-week, reinforcing the tight supply backdrop. Although ongoing mine disruptions support prices, some relief is expected from the restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project. On the demand side, improving industrial activity in China offers some support, but broader sentiment remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and concerns over global economic growth. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a market surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January, though lower than last year, while Goldman Sachs expects a small surplus in 2026 before potential deficits emerge beyond 2027 as supply growth slows. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by -0.9% to 1,877, indicating position unwinding. Immediate support is seen at 339.4, with a break below potentially testing 336.9. On the upside, resistance is placed at 345.5, and a sustained move above could push prices toward 349.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 336.9-349.1.

* Zinc prices dropped as Swedish miner Boliden said production at its Garpenberg zinc mine will be resumed in the second quarter.

* Zinc price has already risen too high, expects another slight correction before it starts to rise again in the medium term - Commerzbank

* Falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined sharply by -2.58% to settle at 366, primarily driven by profit booking after a recent rally fueled by supply disruptions in the Middle East. Despite the correction, underlying fundamentals remain supportive as the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns over prolonged supply constraints from key producing regions. From a supply perspective, the market continues to reflect tightening conditions. The LME cash aluminium contract moved to a premium of $66 per ton over the three-month benchmark, a significant shift from the pre-war discount of $12, indicating strong near-term demand. Production disruptions in the UAE and Bahrain, coupled with a 6% decline in Gulf output in March, have intensified supply concerns. Japanese port inventories fell 7.4% to 279,800 tons, while premiums surged to an 11-year high of $350–$353 per ton, highlighting tight physical availability. JP Morgan forecasts a substantial 1.9 million ton deficit in 2026, with prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ton. However, some balancing factors emerged as Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 0.5%, and China’s production increased 2.7% YoY to 3.85 million tons in March. Imports also rose 6.9% YoY, reflecting strong domestic demand amid elevated prices. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 8.43% to 3,253, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is seen at 361.4, with a break below potentially testing 356.8 levels. On the upside, resistance is placed at 373.1, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 380.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 356.8-380.2.

* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices rose as the continued blockage of Hormuz threatens a Middle Eastern supply.

* LME cash aluminium contract at a premium of $66 over the three-month benchmark compared with the pre-war discount of $12.

* Aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell to 279,800 metric tons at the end of March, down about 7.4% from the previous month.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower by -0.52% to settle at 16,016, pressured by a sharp rise in arrivals across key mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli. Accelerated selling by farmers to meet liquidity needs for the upcoming Kharif sowing season has created a temporary supply glut. Additionally, increased inflow of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric has triggered aggressive discounting for average-quality produce, while ongoing Middle East tensions have disrupted export logistics and delayed buying activity, removing the earlier weather-driven risk premium. However, downside remains cushioned by underlying supply tightness and quality concerns. Arrivals in parts of Maharashtra and Telangana are still below normal for the peak season, while issues like rhizome rot have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” varieties. Farmers and stockists in key regions such as Sangli and Nizamabad continue to hold back quality stocks, anticipating higher prices. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season, tightening supply buffers. Export demand remains stable, with Apr–Feb 2026 shipments rising 1% YoY, while imports have declined sharply by 40%, indicating reduced dependence on overseas supply. Additional support stems from EU demand for IPM-certified turmeric and steady buying from Bangladesh, alongside lower production estimates at 1.140 million tonnes. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down by -0.54% to 16,680, indicating continued unwinding of long positions. Immediate support is seen at 15,872, with a break below likely to test 15,726 levels. On the upside, resistance is placed at 16,182, and a move above could push prices towards 16,346 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15726-16346.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.

* The absence of fresh weather disruptions during the post-harvest phase has effectively removed the "weather risk premium."

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15662.85 Rupees dropped by -0.94 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices recovered by 1.14% to settle at 20,320, supported by short covering and concerns over crop quality. Weather disruptions, including thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan, have damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears of reduced availability of premium “A-grade” produce. Unseasonal rains across North-West India also delayed drying and processing, creating a temporary supply gap and supporting prices despite otherwise ample availability. However, the upside remains capped due to persistent supply pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at elevated levels of around 28,500 bags, indicating a continued supply glut. Fresh crop inflows from Rajasthan and faster harvesting due to favorable weather have resulted in a supply spike. Farmers are actively offloading stocks to meet liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, maintaining selling pressure. On the fundamental side, production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat output down nearly 27% due to reduced acreage and yields. Globally, lower production estimates in China (70–80 thousand tons) and stable supply from other origins provide some support, though exports remain weak with Apr–Feb shipments down 15% YoY, despite a 39% month-on-month rise in February. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by -2.66% to 8,469 while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 20,090, with a break below likely to test 19,870 levels. On the upside, resistance is placed at 20,450, and a move above could push prices towards 20,590 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19870-20590.

* Jeera gains as recent thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged the standing crop at the harvest stage.

* Sudden unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed the drying and processing of the new crop, creating a temporary supply gap

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20712.3 Rupees gained by 0.36 percent.

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