MCX Crude oil May is likely to rise towards Rs.9300-Rs.9450 level as long as it stays - ICICi Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to slip towards $4640 level amid firm dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Further, prices may slip as investors are worried that stalled peace talk between US and Iran may trigger a renewed escalation in Middle East, possibly delaying long-term diplomatic resolution. Moreover, ongoing blockage in Strait of Hormuz, refueled concerns over rising inflation and monetary tightening across major economies. Additionally, investors will remain cautious ahead of monetary policy across major economies, where central banks are likely to keep policy rates unchanged. More focus will be on statement to get cues on interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, expectation of disappointing economic data from US may cushion sharp fall in prices
* MCX Gold June is expected to face resistance near Rs.153,000 level and slip towards Rs.150,000-Rs.149,000 level.
* MCX Silver July is expected to slip towards Rs.242,000-Rs.240,000 level as long as it stays below Rs.252,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected to trade with negative bias amid firm dollar and pessimistic global market sentiments. Market sentiments are hurt as US-Iran peace negotiation stalled, leaving shipping blocked in Strait of Hormuz. Iran has given new proposal to resolve the war and US is reviewing it but President Donald Trump is not happy as it did not address Iran’s nuclear program. Additionally, copper may face headwinds from inflation concerns as it may prompt tighter monetary policy in major economies, alongside growth risk that may hurt demand for industrial metal. Meanwhile, sharp fall in prices may be cushioned on prospect of stronger demand in China and restocking activity ahead of labor day holiday.
* MCX Copper May is expected to slip towards Rs.1280 level as long as it stays below Rs.1310 level. A break below Rs.1280 level prices may be pushed towards Rs.1275-Rs.1270 level
* MCX Aluminum May is expected to rise towards Rs.380-Rs.382 level as long as its stays above Rs.372 level. MCX Zinc May is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs.350 level and slip towards Rs.340 level
Energy Outlook
* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with positive bias as hopes of diplomatic breakthrough is fading as efforts to revive talks stalled and both nations shows little sign of softening. US officials said President Donald Trump is not happy with the latest proposal from Iran to end the war, as it avoid addressing nuclear program. Additionally, prices may rally on supply concerns as shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, remained limited. Moreover, ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon looks fragile as Israel carried out strikes in eastern Lebanon. Further, investors will remain cautious ahead to policy decisions from key central banks this week, including the Fed, ECB, and BOJ
* MCX Crude oil May is likely to rise towards Rs.9300-Rs.9450 level as long as it stays above Rs.8700 level.
* MCX Natural gas May is expected to rise towards Rs.265-Rs.270 level as long as it stays above Rs.252 level.
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