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Gold

Gold prices declined by 1.08% to 1,19,646 as optimism over progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations reduced its safe-haven appeal, while investor attention shifted to the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The framework of a potential trade deal between both nations is expected to be reviewed later this week by Presidents Trump and Xi, which could further influence bullion sentiment. Meanwhile, at the LBMA annual gathering, participants forecasted gold prices to average around $4,980 per ounce over the next 12 months, though Citi and Capital Economics trimmed their outlooks. Economic data from the U.S. painted a mixed picture—the Dallas Fed business activity index slipped to -9.4, its weakest since May, while the revenue index fell to -6.4, signaling softening economic momentum. ADP data showed private businesses added an average of 14,250 jobs per week in recent weeks. On the physical front, Indian gold demand remained subdued as buyers awaited further corrections despite festive buying during Dhanteras and Diwali, with dealers quoting premiums of up to $25 per ounce. Conversely, Chinese and Singaporean demand improved modestly amid lower rates. Swiss gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tons, while shipments to India rose to 15.2 tons. Technically, gold is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 1.05% to 12,871. Support lies at 1,18,145, below which prices could test 1,16,650, while resistance is seen at 1,20,620, and a breakout above may open the path toward 1,21,600 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 116650-121600.

* Gold slipped as hopes for progress in U.S.–China trade talks dimmed its safe-haven allure.

* The US federal government shutdown entered its twenty-seventh day, extending one of the longest funding standoffs in history.

* Investors' focus tipped over to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week.

Silver

Silver prices gained 0.68% to 1,44,342 on short covering after recent declines, as optimism over U.S.–China trade progress initially weighed on safe-haven demand. Market focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut following weak U.S. inflation data. The ADP National Employment Report showed private businesses created an average of 14,250 jobs per week in the past month, while the Dallas Fed index fell to -9.4, signaling weakening business activity. Meanwhile, large silver flows from the U.S. and China to London eased a liquidity squeeze in the global spot market, which had earlier pushed London silver prices to a rare premium over U.S. Comex futures. According to the LBMA, London vaults held 24,581 tons of silver worth $36.5 billion by end-September. Investment demand remains robust, with global silver ETP holdings reaching 1.13 billion ounces by June 2025—just 7% below the 2021 peak—valued at over $40 billion. Retail investment trends diverged regionally: Europe continued a modest recovery from a low base, while India’s demand grew 7% YoY, reflecting bullish price expectations. The global silver deficit is projected to narrow 21% to 117.6 million ounces this year, driven by higher supply and steady industrial demand of around 680.5 million ounces. Technically, silver is under short covering, with open interest down 1.42% to 20,084. Support is at 1,40,855, below which prices may test 1,37,370, while resistance is at 1,46,275, and a move above could see prices testing 1,48,210 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 137370-148210.

* Silver recovered on short covering after prices dropped as progress in US-China trade negotiations dampened demand.

* Private businesses in the US created an average of 14,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending on October 11, 2025.

* The Dallas Fed's general business activity index dropped 3.8 points from the previous month to -9.4 in October of 2025

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices fell 1.99% to 5,330 as concerns about a potential supply glut deepened following reports that OPEC+ may raise output again in December. The producer alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, is reportedly considering a modest production hike to regain market share, overshadowing optimism from progress in U.S.–China trade talks ahead of a high-level meeting later this week. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil remained in focus, aiming to constrain Russian exports without triggering a price spike. The IEA raised its global supply growth forecast and trimmed demand estimates, citing subdued economic activity, while noting oil use would grow around 700,000 barrels per day annually through 2026. According to EIA data, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Cushing hub inventories fell 703,000 barrels, refinery runs dropped 1.2 million barrels per day, and utilization rates slid to 85.7%. The EU’s new sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and ongoing Ukrainian strikes on refineries also added to market uncertainty. OPEC+ production increased by 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd, narrowing the projected 2026 deficit to 50,000 bpd from 700,000 previously. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 0.13% to 14,151. Support is at 5,273, below which prices could test 5,215, while resistance is at 5,407, and a breakout above may push prices toward 5,483 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5215-5483.

* Crude oil fell amid concern about a supply glut following signals from OPEC+ that it may raise output again.

* IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth this year following the decision by the OPEC+ group to hike production

* US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil remained in focus.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices fell sharply by 3.67% to 341.6, weighed down by steady production levels and ample storage inventories, which eased supply concerns ahead of the winter season. U.S. output has remained near a three-week high of around 108 bcfd, supported by robust production earlier this year that helped build inventories 5% above seasonal averages. The latest storage data showed a larger-than-expected injection of 87 bcf for the week ended October 17, exceeding the 83 bcf forecast and the historical norm, reflecting mild weather and subdued heating demand. Weather forecasts across the U.S. continue to indicate mostly normal temperatures through mid-November, limiting immediate demand, though slightly colder conditions later in the month may boost consumption. On the positive side, LNG export flows averaged 16.6 bcfd so far in October — a new record — up from 15.7 bcfd in September, underscoring strong overseas demand. According to the U.S. EIA, both production and consumption are expected to reach record highs in 2025, with dry gas output projected at 107.1 bcfd and domestic use at 91.6 bcfd, alongside rising LNG exports to 14.7 bcfd. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, as open interest surged 33.42% to 17,001 lots while prices dropped by 13. Support is seen at 338.2, below which prices may test 334.7, whereas resistance lies at 347, with a move above potentially pushing prices toward 352.3 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 334.7-352.3.

* Natural gas fell pressured by steady production and comfortable storage levels.

* US output holds around 108 bcfd, keeping supply conditions ample.

* Storage levels 5% above seasonal average, easing winter supply concerns.

Copper

Copper prices slipped 0.18% to 1,009.1 as investors stayed cautious ahead of the key meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where trade and technology issues are expected to dominate. Optimism around a possible trade deal supported sentiment but was offset by caution ahead of major central bank policy decisions, including an anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Despite the mild decline, copper remained supported by persistent global supply disruptions, with Freeport-McMoRan cutting its sales forecast after an accident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, alongside production issues at Codelco’s El Teniente and several African sites. Supply-side tightness has been a key factor, with Shanghai exchange inventories falling 4.9%, while China’s copper output dropped 2.7% month-on-month in September. However, imports of copper concentrate fell 6.2% in the same month following Grasberg’s export license expiry and a fatal mudslide that forced force majeure. Still, year-to-date, China’s copper concentrate imports rose 7.7%, while refined copper imports jumped 14.1% in September. The ICSG projects a global refined copper surplus of 178,000 tonnes in 2025, turning into a 150,000-tonne deficit in 2026, as usage is expected to rise faster than mine output in the medium term. Technically, copper is under fresh selling, with open interest up 0.78% to 8,117. Support lies at 1,000.9, below which prices may test 992.7, while resistance is seen at 1,014.4, and a move above could lead prices toward 1,019.7 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 992.7-1019.7.

* Copper dropped as investors turned cautious ahead of the closely watched meeting between US President and Chinese President.

* Trump said he feels optimistic about reaching a deal with China after trade negotiators agreed on a framework covering key issues.

* Markets also awaited policy decisions from major central banks this week, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut interest rates again.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose 0.54% to 300.35 as easing U.S.–China trade tensions and renewed optimism over global growth boosted buying interest. Officials from both nations reportedly finalized a trade framework for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to review this week, which could suspend additional tariffs and Chinese export controls, lifting sentiment across industrial metals. Adding to the positive tone, China’s industrial profits grew at their fastest pace in nearly two years in September, signaling a potential rebound in demand from the world’s top metals consumer. On the supply side, LME zinc inventories dropped to 37,050 tons, the lowest since March 2023, and down over 80% since mid-April, tightening the market. The cash-to-three-month premium surged to a record $338.74 per ton, reflecting near-term supply stress. Despite a 6.3% rise in mined output, global refined zinc production fell over 2% this year due to smelter curbs in Japan and Kazakhstan—exacerbated by the closure of Toho Zinc’s Annaka plant. Meanwhile, Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans a 6.6% cut in zinc output for the second half of FY2025/26. On the other hand, Ivanhoe Mines reported record production of 57,200 tons in Q3 from its Congo operations. Technically, zinc is under fresh buying momentum, with open interest rising 12.44% to 2,503. Support lies at 297.1, below which prices could test 293.8, while resistance is seen at 302.2, and a move above may lift prices toward 304 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 293.8-304.

* Zinc gained as signs of easing trade tensions between the China and the U.S. and hopes for stronger growth

* LME zinc stocks warehouses at 37,050 tons, the lowest since March 2023 and down more than 80% since the middle of April.

* Worries about supplies on the LME market pushed the premium for the cash zinc contract over the three-month forward to a record high $338.74 a ton.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.17% to 271.05, tracking firm LME trends as prices climbed above $2,870 per tonne in October — the highest in over three years — supported by tight near-term supply and robust long-term demand prospects. China reaffirmed its stance on controlling metal overcapacity, maintaining its 45 million tonnes annual aluminium output cap, which may be breached later this year. Supply disruptions also lent support, with Century Aluminium’s Iceland smelter curtailing two-thirds of output following an electrical failure and Alcoa announcing the closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to declining bauxite grades. Meanwhile, aluminium demand remained buoyant amid growing electrification and data center expansion, while easing U.S.–China trade tensions further improved sentiment. On the supply front, global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% YoY to 6.08 million tonnes in September, according to IAI data. Japanese port stocks increased 1.8% MoM to 341,300 tonnes, whereas Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 3.2%, highlighting regional tightness. China’s aluminium imports surged 35.4% YoY in September to 360,000 tonnes, while exports slipped slightly to 521,000 tonnes, reflecting shifting domestic demand. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying momentum with open interest rising 11.85% to 3,955 lots. Support is seen at 269.3, below which prices may test 267.3, while resistance is likely at 272.3, and a move above could push prices toward 273.3 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 267.3-273.3.

* Aluminium gained tracking LME prices rose past $2,870, the highest in over three years amid tight supply.

* Troubles for key refineries also pressured supply, with one of two potlines in Iceland's Grundartangi smelter being suspended.

* Alcoa announced it will shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating bauxite or grades.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.52% at 15,042 as adverse weather conditions in key growing states—Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka—continued to affect crop yields. Continuous rains in Erode have not only increased arrivals from these regions but also triggered disease outbreaks, making preservation difficult due to high humidity. Prices were further supported by reports of heavy rainfall in Nanded, Maharashtra, which damaged around 15% of the crop area. Meanwhile, turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, and with minimal new arrivals, tight supply conditions are reinforcing market firmness. Despite this bullish tone, upside potential remains somewhat limited as favourable rains during the sowing season have encouraged a 15–20% increase in turmeric acreage, with total area reaching 3.30 lakh hectares for 2024–25—10% higher than the previous year. At Duggirala market, new crop arrivals are fetching a premium due to superior quality, keeping daily trade volumes steady at 1,000–1,200 bags. Overall, market activity remains brisk with more than half of the new crop already traded. On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–August 2025 rose 3.31% year-on-year to 80,156 tonnes, supported by steady overseas demand. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell by 2.81% to 11,755 while prices surged 512. Turmeric finds support at 14,780, and a break below could test 14,520, whereas resistance is seen at 15,350, with a move above likely pushing prices toward 15,660.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14520-15660.

* Turmeric gained as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Also, due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14489.35 Rupees gained by 0.71 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.45% at 20280, supported by level buying amid low arrivals during the Diwali holiday period, which slowed market activity. However, gains remained limited due to weak export demand post the retail season. Sentiment improved slightly after the GST Council lowered the GST rate to 5%, a move expected to support FMCG exports and domestic consumption. Despite this, overall demand remains muted as foreign buyers continue to stay inactive and existing stock levels are sufficient to meet current export needs. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the 2025 season is estimated between 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing area. Gujarat’s output is projected at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce 48–50 lakh bags. On the global front, production in China, Turkey, Syria, and Afghanistan is also slightly lower due to adverse weather conditions. Jeera exports during Apr–Aug 2025 dropped by 17.02% year-on-year to 85,977 tonnes. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by -3.9% to 3,030 while prices rose 90 rupees. Support is seen at 20,000 and below that at 19,720, while resistance is likely at 20,580, with a move above opening the door for 20,880 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19720-20880.

* Jeera prices gained on level buying amid low arrivals.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* The farmers still have about 20 lakh bags of cumin.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19990.25 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

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