Jeera trading range for the day is 19160-19580 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold yesterday remained almost unchanged, settling at 108,981, as investors balanced mixed US economic data supporting expectations of rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims surged by 27,000 to 263,000, marking the highest level since October 2021, signaling potential labor market weakness. However, consumer prices in August rose by 0.4%, doubling July’s gain and slightly exceeding forecasts, pushing annual inflation to a seven-month high of 2.9%. This came after an unexpected drop in producer prices earlier in the week, adding complexity to the market outlook. Geopolitical tensions also played a key role in supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal. Heightened unrest in the Middle East, Poland’s interception of Russian drones, and President Trump urging EU tariffs on China and India to pressure Russia kept demand firm. China’s gold reserves increased to 74.02 million fine troy ounces by the end of August, reflecting continued central bank purchases. However, physical demand in major Asian hubs softened due to record high prices. Dealers in India and China offered steep discounts of $12-$16 per ounce to stimulate buying, compared to smaller discounts or premiums last week. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down -2.48% at 16,588 lots, and the price remained unchanged. Immediate support lies at 108,635, with a test of 108,290 possible on further weakness. Resistance is seen at 109,255, and a sustained move above could see gold testing 109,530, suggesting consolidation amid mixed fundamentals.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 108290-109530.
* Gold prices held steady as investors weighed a wave of US economic data.
* Geopolitical developments are further bolstering gold’s safe-haven appeal.
* President Donald Trump recently called on the EU to impose tariffs on China and India to pressure Russia over the Ukraine conflict.
Silver
Silver yesterday settled up by 1.4% at 126,938 as investors processed fresh US economic data reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims jumped by 27,000 to 263,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021, while consumer prices rose by 0.4% in August, doubling July’s pace and slightly surpassing forecasts. This lifted annual inflation to a seven-month high of 2.9%, adding complexity to the Fed’s future moves. The release came on the heels of an unexpected decline in producer prices earlier in the week, further fueling expectations of easing monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions continued to bolster silver’s safe-haven appeal. US President Trump called on the EU to impose tariffs on China and India to pressure Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, while Poland reported intercepting Russian drones during a large-scale attack in western Ukraine. On the industrial front, robust demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics kept the physical silver market tight amid supply constraints. China’s solar cell exports surged by over 70% in H1 2025, driven by shipments to India, supporting near-term physical offtake. Silver ETP investments saw significant inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, surpassing total inflows of last year. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest up by 7.64% at 18,583 lots. Immediate support is at 125,280, with a possible test of 123,620 on further weakness. Resistance stands at 127,920, and a sustained move above this could push prices toward 128,900, reflecting continued bullish momentum amid positive fundamentals.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 123620-128900.
* Silver rose as investors digested fresh US economic data that reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
* Weekly jobless claims jumped by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
* At the same time, geopolitical tensions continued to underpin safe-haven demand for precious metals.
Crude Oil
Crude oil yesterday settled down by -1.65% at 5529, weighed by concerns over weakening U.S. demand and broad oversupply that overshadowed risks to production from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China are expected to surge in October, with Aramco shipping around 1.65 million barrels per day, up from 1.43 million barrels per day in September. Meanwhile, investors were cautious ahead of President Trump’s comments on Russia, after questioning Moscow’s breach of Polish airspace, and urging the EU to impose tariffs on China and India, major Russian crude buyers, as a pressure tactic. U.S. inventory data added to the bearish sentiment as crude stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a 1 million-barrel draw. Gasoline and distillate inventories also rose sharply, with distillates increasing by 4.7 million barrels, far exceeding the anticipated 35,000-barrel rise. OPEC’s monthly report remained optimistic about global demand growth, asserting that economic growth remains solid in the second half of 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -8.63% to 9288 lots. Immediate support is at 5485, with a further test of 5441 likely if bearish momentum continues. Resistance stands at 5600, and any break above could drive prices toward 5671, reflecting potential short-term recovery amid volatile market fundamentals.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5441-5671.
* Crude oil prices fell pressured by concerns over softening U.S. demand and broad oversupply
* OPEC made no changes to its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next
* OPEC's report showed that in August OPEC+ raised crude output by 509,000bpd.
Natural Gas
Natural gas yesterday settled down by -2.61% at 260.7, weighed by weak LNG export demand and robust storage builds. Government data revealed a storage injection of 71 bcf for the week ending September 5, significantly exceeding market expectations of 68 bcf, and well above the five-year average of 56 bcf. Compared to last year’s build of 36 bcf during the same period, the current inventory surge underscores persistent oversupply pressures. Although early September saw output from the Lower 48 states dip slightly to 107.3 bcfd, it remained close to the record 108.3 bcfd posted in August. Additionally, gas flows to LNG export plants averaged 15.6 bcfd so far in September, down from 15.8 bcfd in August, reflecting softening export demand. Despite forecasts for warmer weather and stronger consumption, abundant inventories continue to weigh on market sentiment. U.S. storage now holds levels 6% above the five-year average but remains 1.1% below last year’s figure, indicating a generally well-supplied market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that natural gas production and demand will hit record highs in 2025, with dry gas output rising to 106.6 bcfd and domestic consumption increasing to 91.5 bcfd. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest rose by 15.6% to settle at 31,067 lots. Immediate support stands at 257, with further weakness likely pushing prices toward 253.3. On the upside, resistance is now seen at 267.7, and a sustained move above could drive prices toward 274.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 253.3-274.7.
* Natural gas dropped due to weak LNG export demand and robust storage.
* Government data showed a larger-than-expected 71 bcf storage build, compared with 36 bcf a year earlier.
* Despite forecasts for warmer weather and stronger demand, abundant inventories continue to pressure the market.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 0.63% at 913, driven by growing concerns over supply disruptions and falling LME inventories. The suspension of Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine has heightened fears of tighter supply, while canceled warrants and declining stock levels signal persistent market scarcity. LME-registered copper inventories declined to 155,050 tons from 157,950 tons a week earlier, with significant cancellations noted in South Korea, suggesting increased metal withdrawals from the market. On the fundamentals, the global copper surplus shrank considerably to just 36,000 metric tons in June, down from 79,000 tons in May. For the first half of 2025, the surplus stood at 251,000 tons, considerably lower than the 395,000-ton surplus recorded in the same period last year. Production data showed mixed trends: Chile’s state-owned Codelco and BHP’s Escondida mine posted production increases of 6.4% and 7.8% respectively, while Collahuasi’s output dropped 27.2%. Meanwhile, China’s strong import appetite underpinned the market, with Yangshan copper premiums rising by 1.8% to $58 per ton, marking a three-month high. China’s copper concentrate imports grew by 8% in August to 2.76 million tons, further supporting near-term physical demand, even as overall copper imports fell 11.5% from July. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 1.83% to settle at 6,017 lots. Immediate support stands at 908.4, with a further test of 903.8 likely if bearish momentum persists. On the upside, resistance is now seen at 915.6, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards 918.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 903.8-918.2.
* Copper gains as mine disruptions and falling LME inventories tighten supply.
* The suspension at Freeport-McMoRans Grasberg mine has intensified fears of further shortages
* Chile's state-owned Codelco, and BHP's Escondida mine both posted year-on-year increases in production in July.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 0.87% at 279.1, supported by tightening supply amid concerns over availability in the global market. LME-registered zinc stocks continued their sharp decline, dropping nearly 75% since mid-April to 50,825 tons. Cancelled warrants signaled that another 15,375 tons are set to exit the LME system, further pressuring market supply. This has resulted in a backwardation scenario, where the cash contract trades at around $18 a ton premium over the three-month forward, reflecting the urgency in physical demand. On the production front, China’s zinc ingot output surged to 626,200 metric tons in August, marking a three-year high, driven by production resumptions at several smelters in South China. However, September output is expected to decline slightly to 609,800 metric tons, though the downside appears limited due to potential capacity cuts by miners and refiners. Adverse weather, especially heavy rains, also impacted smelter operations in South China, tightening supply further. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a reduction in the global zinc market deficit to 27,200 metric tons in June from 31,400 tons in May. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.2% last week, reflecting localized supply adjustments. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 5.47% to settle at 3,682 lots. Support is now seen at 277.3, with a further test of 275.4 if prices slip. Resistance lies at 280.2, and a breakout above this level could drive prices toward 281.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 275.4-281.2.
* Zinc rises as LME warehouse stocks fall nearly 75% since mid-April to 50,825 tons.
* Cancelled warrants or zinc earmarked for delivery indicate another 15,375 tons are due to leave the LME system.
* Zinc sees backwardation as LME cash trades ~$18/ton above three-month forward on supply concerns.
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.88% at 260.05, driven by supply concerns and strong speculative interest. The imposition of a 50% tariff on aluminium imports by US President Trump forced key Canadian producers to divert shipments away from the US market. Notably, Canadian aluminium exports to the US fell from 95% in Q1 to 78% in Q2, reducing market availability. A significant development in Guinea saw Alumina losing all its mining licenses, with all leases transferred to a state-run company, potentially impacting ore supply for major producer Emirates Global Aluminum. Despite a global supply surplus in June—with production at 6.0944 million tons against 5.9113 million tons of consumption—tightened supplies amid speculative buying and robust physical demand supported the price rise. Additionally, Japanese premiums softened to $98-$103 per ton for October-December shipments, reflecting subdued demand, though the overall tight supply outlook countered this effect. China’s aluminium exports surged to 542,000 tons in July from 489,000 tons in June, while imports jumped by 38.2% year-on-year to 360,000 tons in the same month. The growing trade activity highlights strong domestic and export demand. Technically, the market shows fresh buying momentum with open interest rising by 4.75% to settle at 4,434 lots. Support now stands at 256.3, potentially testing 252.4 if bearish pressure builds. Resistance lies at 262.2, and a further breakout could push prices toward 264.2, reflecting a bullish outlook amid tightening supply.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 252.4-264.2.
* Aluminium prices rose amid threats to supply.
* Aluminium stocks in the LME to plunge by nearly 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 in the first third of the month.
* Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $98-$103 per metric ton for October-December.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 12,592 amid increased acreage driven by favourable rains during the current sowing season. However, the downside was limited as heavy rainfall in key growing regions, especially in Nanded, damaged around 15% of standing turmeric crops, raising concerns over overall crop yield. The IMD forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in September across parts of South India added to growers' anxiety. On the production front, dry weather conditions presently support timely planting, and preliminary estimates suggest that turmeric acreage may increase by 15-20% due to other crop options offering lower profitability. The area under turmeric for the 2024-25 season stood at 3.30 lakh hectares, 10% more than the prior season. In key markets such as Duggirala, fresh crop arrivals are witnessing strong buyer interest, with new stock commanding a price premium over older inventories due to superior quality. Export data shows a 3.12% increase in turmeric exports during April-June 2025 at 47,949.56 tonnes compared to the previous year. However, June exports fell by 7.93% YoY and by 28.21% MoM. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by -2.03% to 16,890 lots. Key support is seen at 12,460, with a further test of 12,326 if bearish pressure continues. Resistance lies at 12,750, and a breakout above this could target 12,906 in the short term.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12326-12906.
* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.
* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.
* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13205.65 Rupees gained by 0.41 percent.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.17% at 19,350, pressured by weak domestic and export demand following the retail season. The decline was largely attributed to subdued activity from foreign buyers and the conclusion of the retail buying period. However, the downside was limited as support emerged from the recent GST council decision to lower the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to boost FMCG exports and domestic demand. Traders reported that current export business is being fulfilled from existing stock, while supply remains comfortable and demand remains tepid. Farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, though only about 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by season-end, leaving a significant carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to mirror last year's levels, supported by good sowing conditions. Estimates suggest cumin production in India this year at around 90-92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Jeera exports during April-June 2025 dropped by -19.57% YoY to 59,247.76 tonnes. June exports rose by 10.26% YoY to 16,322.06 tonnes but fell sharply by 29.67% MoM from May 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest gained 12.5% to settle at 2,754 lots, while prices fell by 230. Support is now seen at 19,250, with a further test of 19,160 likely. Resistance is placed at 19,460, and a sustained move above could target 19,580 in the near term.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 19160-19580.
* Jeera dropped due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* However downside seen limited after GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19560.8 Rupees dropped by -0.13 percent.
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