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Gold

Gold yesterday settled higher by 0.76% at 1,27,210, hitting a fresh record high as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted safe-haven demand. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted a subdued labor market but noted signs of a firmer economic trajectory, reinforcing views of an imminent 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with another reduction likely in December. Heightened geopolitical concerns, after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at cutting trade ties with China, further supported the metal’s rally. Physical gold demand in India remained resilient despite soaring prices, with jewellers and investors buying actively ahead of the festive season. Indian dealers quoted premiums up to $15 per ounce over official domestic prices, compared to $9 last week. Conversely, demand in top consumer China was subdued post-holiday, with discounts of $48–$60 per ounce to attract buyers. In Hong Kong and Singapore, gold traded in a narrow band from small discounts to $1.30 premiums, while in Japan, it was at par to a $1 premium. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tons, the highest since May 2024, while shipments to India also rose to 15.2 tons, underscoring solid Asian demand. Technically, gold is under fresh buying momentum, with open interest rising 1.64% to 15,905 contracts as prices gained 954. Immediate support lies at 1,26,370 and 1,25,530, while resistance is seen at 1,27,895, with a breakout likely to test 1,28,580.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 125530-128580.

* Gold hit $4200/oz and on MCX 1,27,740, extending its rally to another record high amid ramped up bets of additional US monetary easing.

* President Trump accused China of “economically hostile” actions after Beijing halted soybean imports and warned of retaliatory cooking oil embargoes.

* US government shutdown continues, with officials warning of growing economic impact.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled higher by 1.69% at 1,62,206, supported by a historic short squeeze and tightening liquidity in the London market, which forced traders to cover short positions amid soaring lease rates that jumped over 30%. The sudden surge in rollover costs made it expensive to hold short bets, adding further upward pressure on prices. Strong physical demand from India also contributed to the rally, as buyers rushed to secure supplies amid earlier shipments diverted to New York on tariff concerns. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding a potential Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts this year continued to underpin precious metals. Investment sentiment remained robust, with global silver ETP holdings rising to 1.13 billion ounces by mid-2025—just 7% below the 2021 peak—while their total value crossed a record $40 billion in June. Indian retail investment demand climbed 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reflecting strong price optimism. Meanwhile, the global silver deficit is projected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces this year as demand dips slightly and supply expands. Industrial demand is expected to remain steady after hitting a record in 2024, while coin and bar demand is forecast to rebound 7% after last year’s steep decline. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest falling 5.06% to 25,557 contracts. Immediate support lies at 1,60,460 and 1,58,720, while resistance is seen at 1,63,240, with a breakout likely to test 1,64,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 158720-164280.

* Silver rebounded above $52/oz and on MCX above 1,60,000, near record highs as a global supply crunch fueled a historic rally.

* Severe supply tightness in London triggered a short squeeze, sending lease rates above 30%.

* Indian demand remains strong, with some mutual funds suspending silver ETF inflows amid shortage fears.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled lower by 1.68% at 5,145 as investors reacted to concerns over a potential supply surplus and renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted that the global oil market could face a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, significantly higher than earlier estimates, amid rising output from OPEC+ and sluggish demand growth. The ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute, with both nations imposing new port fees on cargoes, raised fears of disrupted freight flows and weaker economic activity, further dampening oil demand prospects. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected record-high domestic oil production at 13.53 million barrels per day this year, up from 13.23 million bpd in 2024, signaling ample supply ahead. EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels last week to 416.5 million barrels, exceeding expectations, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased—adding pressure on prices. Refinery utilization slipped to 91.4%, and crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined slightly by 271,000 barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ raised output by 630,000 barrels per day in September to 43.05 million bpd, maintaining its optimistic demand outlook but acknowledging a narrowing supply deficit. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 10.32% to 10,006 contracts. Crude oil finds support at 5,100 and 5,056, while resistance is seen at 5,216, with a breakout above potentially testing 5,288.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5056-5288.

* Crude oil dropped as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's prediction of a supply surplus in 2026.

* Trade tensions between the U.S. and China can curtail demand.

* IEA said that the global oil market could face a surplus next year of up to 4 million barrels per day.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell by 2.04% to 263.9 yesterday, pressured by forecasts for milder weather and weaker near-term demand. Updated weather models indicated warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the U.S. through late October, delaying the onset of the heating season. According to NatGasWeather, significant cooling is unlikely before the final week of the month, keeping heating-related consumption subdued. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, slightly lower than September’s 107.4 bcfd and well below August’s record of 108.0 bcfd, data from LSEG showed. The earlier surge in supply allowed robust storage builds, with inventories now standing 4% above seasonal norms. U.S. utilities injected 80 billion cubic feet into storage for the week ended October 3, exceeding expectations of a 76 bcf build, bringing total stockpiles to 3,641 bcf — 23 bcf higher than a year ago and 157 bcf above the five-year average. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remained strong, averaging 16.3 bcfd this month, supported by the restart of Berkshire Hathaway’s Cove Point terminal. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected record-high gas output and demand in 2025, with production reaching 107.1 bcfd and consumption climbing to 91.6 bcfd. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, as open interest declined by 4.69% to 38,989 contracts. Natural gas has support at 260.6 and 257.2, while resistance is seen at 268.5 and 273 on the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 257.2-273.

* Natural gas prices dropped weighed down by forecasts for milder weather and lower demand in the coming days.

* Gas production averaged 106.4 bcfd so far in October, down from September’s 107.4 bcfd

* U.S. natural gas output and demand will both rise to record highs in 2025 - EIA

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.23% to 991.7 yesterday, pressured by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions that clouded the global demand outlook. However, losses were limited amid expectations of further stimulus from China, the world’s largest metals consumer, after September data showed persistent deflationary pressures and ongoing property sector weakness. The premium for LME cash copper over the three-month contract eased to $32 per ton, down sharply from a recent high of $227, as traders adjusted short positions ahead of contract rollovers. On the supply side, disruptions in major producing nations such as Chile and Indonesia continued to support prices. Chile’s Codelco reported its weakest monthly output in over two decades, while production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine remained restricted following a fatal accident. Copper stocks across major exchanges totaled around 556,000 tons, with nearly half held in U.S. Comex warehouses, reflecting a regional surplus. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 57,000-ton global refined copper surplus in July and projected a 178,000-ton surplus for 2025, followed by a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026 as demand growth accelerates. China’s copper concentrate imports fell 6.2% in September to 2.59 million tons due to export disruptions from Indonesia, though overall imports this year are up 7.7%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 6.92% to 6,123. Copper has support at 985.8 and 979.7, while resistance is seen at 999.3 and 1006.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 979.7-1006.7.

* Copper dropped as escalating US-China tensions darkened the global demand outlook.

* In the latest flare-up, President Trump threatened Beijing with a cooking oil embargo in response to China’s soybean boycott.

* On the supply side, persistent disruptions in Chile and Indonesia continued to tighten global output.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.48% to 289.9 yesterday as escalating U.S.-China trade tensions weighed on demand sentiment for industrial metals. The premium for LME cash zinc over the three-month contract narrowed sharply to $75 a ton from $202 earlier, indicating easing tightness, although low global inventories continue to support volatility. LME zinc stocks have dropped steeply from 230,000 tons in January to just around 48,825 tons, the lowest since May 2023, reflecting an 80% drawdown so far this year. Meanwhile, Chinese producers are reportedly preparing to sell more metal overseas to capitalize on stronger international prices, raising concerns about potential oversupply. However, limited domestic inventories and the possibility of production cuts in China could restrict major downside. Japan’s Mitsui Mining & Smelting announced its refined zinc output will fall 6.6% year-on-year in the second half of FY25/26 due to smelter closures, while treatment charges have rebounded to $87.5 per ton, signaling a modest recovery in smelter margins. On the other hand, record zinc output of 57,200 tons from Ivanhoe Mines’ Congo operations in Q3 adds to the global supply outlook. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global zinc market recorded a surplus of 30,200 tons in July after a deficit in June, with a cumulative surplus of 72,000 tons in the first seven months of 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.03% to 2,757. Zinc has support at 288.2 and 286.4, while resistance is seen at 292 and 294.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 286.4-294.

* Zinc dropped as trade tensions between the United States and China, escalated, risking demand growth for the metal.

* The premium for the LME cash zinc contract against the three-month fell to $75 a ton from Monday's $202.

* Tight zinc stocks in the LME-registered warehouses – currently at their lowest level since early 2023

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped by 0.36% to 262.65 yesterday amid renewed U.S.-China trade tensions that dampened demand sentiment for growth-sensitive base metals. The decline followed concerns that escalating trade frictions could weaken global manufacturing activity. However, downside remained limited as supply-side risks and steady demand provided underlying support. Chinese authorities have trimmed their annual base metal output growth target to 1.5% for 2025–26, aligning with the aluminium production cap of 45 million tonnes—likely to be breached this year—under Beijing’s anti-overcapacity campaign. On the supply front, Alcoa’s decision to close its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia due to deteriorating ore grades and Guinea’s revocation of all bauxite mining licenses—affecting Emirates Global Aluminium—added to global supply concerns. Meanwhile, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global aluminium deficit of 119,900 tonnes in July and nearly 985,300 tonnes for January–July 2025, signaling a tightening market. China, the world’s largest producer and consumer, exported 521,000 tonnes of aluminium and products in September, slightly down from August, while imports in August surged 12.9% year-on-year to 320,000 tonnes. Goldman Sachs projected aluminium prices could ease to $2,350 per tonne by late 2026 amid potential demand moderation. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping 11.98% to 2,836. Prices have support at 261.5 and 260.4, while resistance is seen at 264.2 and 265.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 260.4-265.8.

* Aluminium prices dropped pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and prospects of rising output.

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Donald Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October.

* Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium price forecast, projecting LME to fall to $2,350 per metric ton in Q426 from $2,700 currently.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.51% at 13,906 as prices found support from reports of crop damage caused by recent heavy rainfall in key growing regions. In Nanded, around 15% of the standing turmeric crop area has been affected, tightening supply concerns in the near term. Stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no new arrivals for the past two days, further lending firmness to market sentiment. However, upside remained capped due to an expected increase in acreage, supported by favorable rains during the sowing season. IMD’s forecast of normal to below-normal rainfall in parts of South India also raised concerns about yield prospects. On the production front, dry weather is facilitating timely planting, with turmeric acreage for the 2024–25 season rising by nearly 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares compared to last year. Strong buying interest at the Duggirala market is sustaining prices, with new crop arrivals fetching a premium due to superior quality. Around 50–55% of the total new crop has already been traded, with daily volumes between 1,000–1,200 bags. Turmeric exports during April–July 2025 rose by 2.29% year-on-year to 63,020 tonnes, supported by strong overseas demand, while July exports grew 9.31% month-on-month. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 6.86% to 11,835 lots while prices gained 70. Turmeric now has support at 13,686, with further weakness possible to 13,464, while resistance is seen at 14,094; a break above could push prices toward 14,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13464-14280.

* Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* While upside capped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13646.05 Rupees gained by 0.52 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled flat at 19,130 as weak export demand following the end of the retail season kept prices steady. Traders noted that foreign buying interest has slowed considerably, with current export needs being met from existing stocks. The market is also under pressure from comfortable supplies, as farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded before the season ends—leaving a large carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. However, prices found some support after the GST Council reduced the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to benefit FMCG exports and boost domestic consumption in the coming months. On the supply front, India’s current season production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing. Gujarat’s output is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Meanwhile, lower production in key global producers like China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan may limit downside risks. Despite this, India’s jeera exports during April–July 2025 declined by 19.8% year-on-year to 73,026 tonnes, reflecting sluggish overseas demand. July exports also fell 20.8% from last year, further highlighting weak global interest. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest surged 18.61% to 3,576 lots, even as prices remained unchanged. Jeera now has support at 19,010 and 18,890, while resistance is likely at 19,240, with a breakout above potentially taking prices toward 19,350.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18890-19350.

* Jeera prices settled flat due to weak export demand

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18770.5 Rupees dropped by -0.41 percent.

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