IGI Logo

Below on Jeera Futures Surge Amid Supply Concerns and Export Challenges By Amit Gupta Research Support,Kedia Advisory

Jeera futures are on the rise, gained nearly 8.50% in last 4 session to settled at 57650, due to renewed buying amidst tight supplies at the physical market, driven by anticipation of the new crop still five months away. While stockists capitalize on recent price falls, concerns linger over subdued exports, with seasonal patterns indicating a continued downturn. Unfavorable weather conditions in key jeera-producing states have significantly increased prices this year, with expectations of doubling cultivation. The Indian festive season is poised to boost domestic demand, providing additional support.

The jeera market is navigating a complex landscape of supply and demand dynamics. Unpredictable weather patterns have disrupted cultivation, leading to a reduction in stock against expectations. The upcoming festive season in India could further strain supplies as domestic demand surges. However, the subdued export scenario poses a challenge, limiting the potential for excessive price gains. The delicate balance hinges on factors like upcoming sowing conditions, geopolitical discussions on cumin exports, and the resilience of key importers like Bangladesh and Pakistan. China's involvement in cumin exports introduces an additional layer of uncertainty, with indications of sufficient stocks but delayed deliveries. The global cumin market is delicately poised between potential spikes in demand and the risk of oversupply. As the Indian cumin market interacts with international players, especially in Singapore, predictions suggest that high-quality cumin prices are likely to remain above $125 per bag, potentially reaching $145 by the year-end, subject to market fluctuations.

In conclusion, the jeera market's trajectory is contingent on factors such as upcoming sowing conditions, geopolitical discussions on exports, and global demand patterns. While current technical indicators show retracement and resistance levels, the market's true trajectory will unfold based on the delicate interplay of these multifaceted elements.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer