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Bullion Outlook

* Spot gold is expected to face the hurdle near $2650 and move lower towards $2600 amid strong dollar and growing prospects of slowdown in rate cuts. Further, forecast of better than expected economic numbers from US could check its upside. US GDP numbers is likely to indicate steady growth in the economy. Further, sticky inflation numbers could again hurt rate cut prospects which would weigh on the bullions. Meanwhile, global trade war concerns may limit he downside in the yellow metal.

* Spot gold has been trading under the 20 day EMA at $2650, which would act as key resistance for price. Further closer of OI in ATM and OTM put strikes indicates downside in price. MCX Gold February is expected to decline towards 75,200 as long as it remains under 76,600.

* Spot Silver is likely to face the hurdle near 100 day EMA at $30.60 and move towards $29.80. MCX Silver March is expected to move towards 89,200, as long as it trades below 92,000. 

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to move in a tight range amid mixed set of factors. Strong dollar amid diminishing bets of December rate cut would check the upside in the base metals. Where as depleting inventory levels in SHFE and LME and improved premiums along with TC charges could provide some support to the base metals. Now the focus will remain on key economic numbers which could bring more clarity.

* MCX Copper December is expected to find the floor near 800 and move higher towards 814. A move above 814 would open the doors towards 818.

* Aluminum is expected hold firm amid supply concerns after key suppliers from Russia indicated slowdown in production amid higher Alumina prices. MCX Aluminium December is expected to hold the support 241 and push the price towards 246.

Energy Outlook

* NYMEX Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure amid growing bets of a cease fire in the Middle East region. In a latest report, Israel has agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, which is most likely to take effect on Wednesday. Downside in oil prices are likely to be contained amid improved refinery demand and depleting inventory levels. Further, growing prospects of delay in OPEC+’s planned out-put hike would also provide some support to oil price.

* On the data front, fresh addition of OI in OTM calls indicates price to face stiff resistance near $70. Further closer of OTM put strikes indicates prices to dip towards $67.  MCX Crude oil December is likely to face the hurdle near 5950 and  weaken oil price towards 5700.

* Natural gas December future is expected to consolidate in the band of 286 and 305. A move above 305 would open the doors towards 314. Forecast of cooler weather in US would provide support to prices.

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