COMEX Gold futures ended lower last week, snapping a four-month winning streak amid early strength in the U.S. dollar index - Axis Securities Ltd
The Week That Was
• COMEX Gold futures ended lower last week, snapping a four-month winning streak amid early strength in the U.S. dollar index. The dollar’s rally in the first half of the week pressured gold prices, though a pullback in the latter half helped gold recover some losses. However, renewed U.S.-China tensions added fresh downside pressure late in the month. Traders are now closely watching upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data and dollar index movements for further cues.
• COMEX Silver futures dipped to $33.20 per ounce in the final trading session of May’25 but still posted a 1.3% monthly gain. The market grappled with renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade policy following President Trump’s accusation that China violated a recent tariff truce, though no details were provided. Geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment, even as economic data remained steady. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose by 0.1% in Apr’25, aligning with expectations. Investors now await further economic signals for direction.
• NYMEX Crude oil futures declined over 1% to $60.3 per barrel, posting a second straight weekly loss amid rising trade tensions and OPEC+ uncertainty. Key producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia may push for a larger-than-planned output hike to regain market share. President Trump’s accusation that China broke a recent trade deal further weighed on sentiment. Markets now look to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for direction..
• COMEX Copper futures eased to around $4.65 per pound, retreating from a four-week high amid concerns over slowing demand and fresh supply inflows into North America. The International Copper Study Group reported a Q1 surplus of 289,000 tons, up from 268,000 tons last year, driven by increased South American output. Despite this, LME futures remain in backwardation, signalling tight near-term supply. Shipments to the U.S. have accelerated to preempt potential tariff actions by President Trump.
MCX Gold
Technical Outlook:
MCX Gold slipped 1.50% last week, trading within a broad range of Rs 98,000 to Rs 92,000. The price is nearing its 20-day SMA on the daily chart, and a close below this level may invite further downside. The daily RSI is forming lower lows, indicating weakening momentum. This suggests bearish sentiment could persist in the short term.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Gold below Rs 95,000, with a stoploss above Rs 97,000 and targets of Rs 92,500 and Rs 91,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 95,875
MCX Silver
Technical Outlook:
MCX Silver declined by 1% last week and has been alternating between gains and losses over the past five weeks, while maintaining a structure of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. The 20-week SMA continues to act as a key support during each pullback. However, the weekly MACD remains in a bearish crossover, signalling caution. Overall, the price action suggests a sideways to mildly positive bias in the near term
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Silver above Rs 98,500, with a stop-loss below Rs 96,000 and targets of Rs 1,01,500 and Rs 1,03,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 97,015.
MCX Crude
Technical Outlook:
MCX Crude Oil declined by 1% last week, continuing to trade within a downward sloping trendline channel on the weekly chart. Despite the broader weakness, the daily MACD has shown a bullish crossover, hinting at improving short-term sentiment. This indicates potential for a rebound if momentum sustains. Immediate resistance is placed around Rs 5,500, while strong support lies near Rs 5,000. A breakout from the channel will be crucial for a decisive trend shift.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 5,500, with a stop-loss below Rs 5,300 and targets of Rs 5,800 and Rs 5,900.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 5,203.
MCX Copper
Technical Outlook:
MCX Copper closed on a flat note but continues to maintain a higher high, higher low structure on the weekly chart. The price has been consolidating in a tight range between Rs 870 and Rs 850 over the past few sessions. On the daily chart, MACD holds a bullish crossover, and the price remains above the 20-day SMA, indicating sustained bullish momentum. A breakout above Rs 870 could trigger further upside
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 870, with a stoploss below Rs 840 and targets of Rs 910 and Rs 930.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 861.
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