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Nifty :25245

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

* Indian equity benchmarks extended the gains on second day amid potential ceasefire between Isarel and Iran. The Nifty settled at 25245 up 0.80%. Sequential improvement in market breadth over the past two days with an A/D ratio of 3:1, points to growing bullish sentiment and broader market support. Midcap and Small cap indices closed on a positive note 0.44% and 1.49% respectively. Sectorally, barring Nifty PVT Bank, all sectors closed in green, where, Consumer Durables, IT and Auto outperformed.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty started the day with a gap up , and witnessed higher-high-low throughout the session where intraday pullbacks were bought into. This resulted into the formation of Inside bar with a positive close, signaling uptrend is intact.

* Key point to highlight is that, Nifty closed above 25200 and it is the strongest close since one-month. Nifty maintained the higher-highlow structure with positive market breadth indicate a further uptrend from the current levels. This makes us to revise our target to 25800 levels which could achieve in the month of July which is the implied target of the consolidation from (25200-24500). Meanwhile, 24500 will act as strong support. Going ahead, we expect volatility to subside and sector rotation will be in play. Hence, we advise any dips should be used as a buying opportunity. Following observations are important to watch out for which would provide cushion to the market:

* a) Cool off in India VIX.

* b) Declining crude oil prices.

* c) Further weakness in US Dollar index and US yields.

* d) Bilateral Trade Agreement between India and US.

* Structurally, the index is witnessing shallow retracement as over past five weeks it merely corrected 3% of preceding six week's rally (15%), indicating robust price structure that is helping index to set the stage for next leg of up move.

* On the broader market front, the Nifty Small cap index closes above previous swing high making higher-high-low formation and both the Mid cap and small cap indices are trading 3% and 5% from its alltime high indicating robust price structure. The current rally is backed by improvement in the market breadth as currently % stocks of Nifty Midcap and Small cap 100 universe are trading above 77% and 61% of 50/ 200 days SMA that augurs well for durability of ongoing up move.

* The key support threshold of 24500 for the Nifty is based on lower band of past five weeks consolidation coincided with 50% retracement of recent rally (23935-25222) and 50-day EMA.

Nifty Bank : 56621

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

* The Bank Nifty extended the gains for straight second day and closed on a positive note, amid ceasefire between Israel and Iran . The index settled at 56 ,621 , up 0 .28 % . The Nifty Pvt Bank index underperformed the benchmark, closed on a flat note at 28126 , down 0 .03 % .

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty started the day with a gap up opening, after the initial up move which got restricted in the vicinity of 61 .80 % retracement of the decline from (56862 -56276 ) and traded within 261 points narrow range throughout the session . This resulted into the formation of Inside bar with a positive close, signaling breather .

* Despite geopolitical issues Index majorly sustained above 20 -day EMA since April indicating upward momentum to continue . Oil prices fell sharply declined 15 % from Monday’s top of $80 and currently sustaining below $68 mark indicating positive momentum to continue . Bank Nifty maintained the higher -high -low structure with positive market breadth indicating uptrend is intact . All these factors indicate that index will close above 57049 levels and eventually open the gate towards 58800 levels in the month of July which is the implied target of the consolidation from (56098 -53483 ) . While, strong support is placed at 55000 , which coincides with lower consolidation zone . Any, decline from current levels would offer incremental buying opportunities

* Structurally, the Bank Nifty is witnessing an elongation of rallies followed by shallow retracements, signifying a robust price structure . The April months up -move of 14 % is stronger compared to the March month’s 9 % rise . Additionally, the declines are becoming shallower, with the April months decline being 4 . 6 % versus 5 . 4 % in March 2025 after recent 7 % upmove and decline of 3 % we expect same rhythm to continue .

* Mirroring the benchmark the PSU Bank index also witnessed a range bound trade within 38 points indicating breather . The index broke out from an eleven -month falling trendline on 19th May and, since then, has been forming a higher -high -low structure on weekly which is intact, indicating uptrend is intact . While the Bank Nifty is trading > 1 % below its all -time high, whereas the PSU Bank index is still trading ~16 % below its all -time high, presenting a compelling case for a catch -up move . Meanwhile, immediate support on the downside is placed at 6 ,700 , which is the 38 .20 % retracement of the rally from 7th April 2025 to 9th June 2025 coincided with 50 - day EMA .

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