India Strategy : Exit polls suggest anti-incumbency in Delhi by JM Financial Services Ltd
Exit polls by 12 polling agencies suggest an anti-incumbency against the ruling AAP in Delhi assembly election. BJP expected to gain clear majority of 38 seats out of 70 seat assembly. Poll promises in the run up to the election revolved around cash transfer schemes by AAP which was countered by corruption allegation by the BJP while matching the cash transfer schemes of the AAP. Congress restricted to just one eat as per the exit polls. Results will be declared on 8th Feb.
Exit poll results suggest anti-incumbency: Exit polls (based on the average of 12 polling agencies) after the single phase election in Delhi suggests anti-incumbency against the party in power i.e. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The BJP led National Demographic alliance (NDA) is expected to claim clear majority by 9 out of 12 polling agencies, with an average 38 seats in the 70 seat assembly election. Exit polls expect Congress (INC) to get restricted to just one seat on an average. It is pertinent to note that exit poll results have accurately predicted the actual results in the previous assembly election in 2020, in favour of AAP.
Lower voter turnout amidst continued cash transfer promises: In the run up to the election, the ruling AAP announced various schemes such as ‘Mahila Samman Yojana’ providing monthly allowance of INR 2,100 to women and INR 18,000 to priests. The BJP’s campaigned mainly highlighted corruption by the AAP government, however they promised to continue the on-going schemes (including free electricity upto 200 units) of the AAP government along with matching the monthly allowance to women. The Congress on the other hand had promised to provide a universal health insurance worth INR 2.5mn and a higher monthly allowance of INR 2,500 to women. Voter turnout fell from 62.59% in 2020 elections to 60.44% in 2025.
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