India`s Cotton Imports Surge as Domestic Output Shrinks by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India's cotton imports for the 2024-25 season are projected to more than double to 33 lakh bales, up from 15.20 lakh bales last year, driven by a significant decline in domestic production. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its production estimates downward to 291.30 lakh bales, citing poor yields in Maharashtra. Imports till March-end already reached 25 lakh bales, with consumption projected to remain flat at 315 lakh bales. The lower output has also impacted export figures, now forecast at 16 lakh bales—down from 28.36 lakh bales the previous year. Stocks are tightening, with closing inventory expected at 23.49 lakh bales, lower than the previous year's 30.19 lakh bales.
Key Highlights
* Cotton imports for 2024-25 revised up to 33 lakh bales.
* Domestic production drops to 291.30 lakh bales due to Maharashtra losses.
* Exports projected lower at 16 lakh bales, down from 28.36 lakh.
* Consumption remains steady at 315 lakh bales for the season.
* Closing stocks seen dipping to 23.49 lakh bales by September-end.
India's cotton market is witnessing significant shifts, with imports for the 2024-25 season expected to more than double to 33 lakh bales of 170 kg each, a sharp increase from 15.20 lakh bales in the previous year. This surge in imports comes amid a notable decline in domestic production, exerting upward pressure on prices and tightening supply.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its domestic output estimate down to 291.30 lakh bales from an earlier 295.30 lakh bales. The drop is largely attributed to Maharashtra, where the crop is estimated to fall short by 5 lakh bales. However, Telangana offered a slight cushion with a 1 lakh bale increase.
As of March-end, India had already imported 25 lakh bales, and the total cotton supply, including imports and opening stocks, reached 306.83 lakh bales. Meanwhile, domestic consumption is expected to remain flat at 315 lakh bales for the season, with 170 lakh bales already consumed by March.
In contrast, cotton exports are forecasted to decline sharply to 16 lakh bales, down from 28.36 lakh bales the previous year. The reduced production and higher import dependency have also impacted inventory levels, with closing stocks projected to shrink to 23.49 lakh bales by September 2025, from 30.19 lakh bales last year.
This combination of falling production, steady consumption, and lower exports signals a tightening cotton market for India, possibly influencing global cotton trade dynamics as well.
Finally
India’s rising cotton imports reflect deeper issues in domestic production, setting the stage for tighter markets and potential volatility in prices.
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