India rupee likely to weaken at open; durability of RBI support hinges on oil
The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker on Friday after a rally in the previous session was spurred by likely Reserve Bank of India intervention, with traders doubtful that the support can last without relief from oil prices.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicates the rupee will open in the 91.64 to 91.68 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 0.6% higher at 91.60 on Thursday.
The previous session's rally in the rupee ran counter to the underlying trend, with traders pointing to a familiar RBI playbook of aggressive dollar sales before the local market opens.
Most bankers doubt the recovery will prove durable, noting that similar RBI-driven moves in the past have tended to fade. Without a shift in key drivers-particularly softer oil prices-the currency’s underlying bias is still seen tilted toward weakness, they said.
"These kind of interventions change the tone temporarily. They usually do not alter the broader trend without the support of other factors,” a currency trader at a bank said.
"Right now, oil is the key variable for the rupee and across assets. Without relief there, the rupee will remain under pressure."
Oil prices have surged this week on worries that the escalating Iran war could severely disrupt supplies.
Traders say the market has been highly volatile, remaining highly sensitive to conflict-related headlines and to developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude pushed past $86 a barrel for the first time in just under two years before dipping back to around $84. A senior White House official said the U.S. Treasury Department may take action in the oil futures market to combat rising energy prices.
For the week, Brent is up about 16%.
Meanwhile, risk sentiment remained tentative after U.S. equities dipped on Thursday. The dollar index hovered near the 99 handle, while Asian currencies were mixed.
