India Exim Bank forecasts India`s merchandise exports to amount to US$ 111.9 bn and non-oil exports to US$ 97.8 bn for Q1 of FY2027
Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports at US$ 111.9 bn, witnessing a marginal (0.3%) year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, while non-oil exports are forecasted at US$ 97.8 bn, growing by 3.5%, during Q1 (April-June) of FY2027. Non-oil and non-gems and jewellery exports are projected at US$ 90.4 bn, with an y-o-y growth of 2.9% during the same quarter.
The non-oil exports growth could be as a result of increasing geographical diversification of exports, supported by timely policy interventions, including targeted emergency credit support. Favourable prospects arising from recently concluded trade negotiations with select countries, are expected to sustain growth in non?oil export segments. India’s positive export outlook could be driven by expected pick up in global demand and exchange rate movements. However, there are persistent downside risks emanating from global economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and continued volatility in international commodity markets.
Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports, non-oil exports and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the second quarter of FY 2027 (i.e., July-September 2026) would be released during the first fortnight of August 2026.
The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising Dr. Satyananda Sahoo, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai; Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy, Director, Madras School of Economics, Chennai; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram.
As part of its continued research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise, non-oil exports, and non-oil and non-gems & jewellery exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.
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