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After a sharp decline last week, the index witnessed a phase of pause and consolidation within the 23800–23500 range. However, the recent pullback towards the 23800-zone lacked conviction, as prices slipped below the 5 DEMA level of 23680, indicating underlying weakness. From a price action perspective, the formation resembles a “Falling Three” continuation pattern, suggesting the potential for further downside if the 23500-support cluster is breached again. Momentum indicators continue to remain subdued, with RSI hovering near 46, reflecting weak strength, while ADX has started to rise from lower levels and is approaching the 25 mark. A sustained move above this level could confirm strengthening of the prevailing trend, which currently remains bearish. A decisive break down below 23500, followed by a breach of the 23250- pattern support, may accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 23150–23000 gap support zone, which is likely to act as a crucial near-term base. In the absence of strong intraday reversal signals, the broader bias is expected to remain cautious to negative. Traders are advised to adopt a stock-specific approach and avoid aggressive long positions unless a clear daily reversal emerges or the index reclaims the 24080 level (50 DEMA). Until such confirmation is seen, a cautious short-on-rise strategy may be considered, with focus on lower support levels.

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