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Nifty : 25790

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Indian equities benchmark breaks its five-day losing streaks to close on a strong note ahead of India-US trade talks set for Jan 13. Nifty settled the day at 25790 up 0.42%. Broader market ended flat with Nifty midcap ended flat and Smallcap decline 0.5%. Sectorally, barring Realty and Pharma, all other indices closed flat to positive wherein Metals remain the top outperformer.

Technical Outlook:

* The index opened the week on a flat note and extended its decline in the first-half however, the index has displayed a faster retracement, with the entire decline being swiftly recovered during the subsequent up-move in latter half of the session. The daily price action formed strong bullish candle with lower shadow, indicating responsive buying interest from oversold territory.

* Index has staged a strong rebound from the 50% retracement of its prior sharp up-move(24605-26325) a level that also aligned with 100-day EMA, reinforcing significance of this support zone. Going ahead, holding above Monday’s panic low of 25473 would keep pullback options open. Failure to do so would lead to extended correction wherein strong support is placed at 25300. A decisive close above the previous session’s high would confirm resumption of uptrend and head towards millstone of 26100.

* Looking ahead, volatility is expected to stay elevated in the coming week amid geopolitical uncertainties, the commencement of the Q3 earnings season, and awaited clarity on the US–India trade deal.

* Structurally, Since Oct 2025, index has arrested multiple intermediate corrections in 3-4%. Subsequently, such correction offered incremental buying opportunity followed by gradual positive recovery in subsequent weeks. In the current scenario, the index has already corrected ~3.4% that hauled daily stochastic oscillator in oversold territory, indicating limited downside. Hence, one should avoid aggressive selling at current levels and focus on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong fundamentals as key support is placed at 25300 being 200 day-EMA and 61.8% retracement of preceding up-move (24580-26325)

* On the broader market front, Midcap index found supportive efforts from 50 % retracement of Sept-Nov rally placed around 58700 (which has been held on multiple occasions in last two months) that coincided with 100 days EMA, highlighting prevailing uptrend is intact. Going ahead, follow through strength to hammer like candle would reignite bullish momentum in the midcaps

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 100-day EMA

* Levels: Buy near 80% retracement of Monday upmove (25573- 25899)

Nifty Bank : 59450

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty ended the day on a marginally positive note, at 59450 up 0.5%. Nifty PSU Bank Index relatively outperformed up 0.8%

Technical Outlook:

* Index opened the week on a subdued note, however supportive efforts emerged around 50-day EMA. As a result, the daily price action formed hammer like candle carrying lower shadow, indicating buying demand emerging from lower levels.

* In line with our view Index rebounded from the lower band of the rising channel coinciding with 50-day EMA, indicating strong support base. Going ahead, a follow through strength above previous session high would indicate resumption of up move and resolve higher towards 60400.

* Structurally, since October2025, Index has consistently arrested intermediate corrections in the vicinity of 50-day EMA. Mirroring this historical behaviour, the index has once again respected this key support and staged a strong rebound, indicating the probability of a similar constructive price resolution ahead.

* Nifty PSU Bank Index rebounded after taking support at 20- day EMA and 50% retracement of current up move (8230- 8856). Going ahead follow through strength above todays high will challenge recent high of 8850.

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 50-day EMA

* Levels: Buy near 61.8% retracement of Monday upmove (59128-59811)

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