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Nifty

Despite persistent intraday weakness, the index respected the Bullish Hammer swing low and closed above the critical 24500 support zone. However, the failure to close above the 20-DEMA (24630) reflects underlying weakness and warrants caution. A sustained breakdown below 24500, particularly if accompanied by a daily RSI close below 50, could confirm a channel breakdown, opening downside potential towards 24185 (50-DEMA) or 23700 (200-DEMA). Options data reinforces a rangebound structure, with significant OI build-up at 24500 (puts) and 25000 (calls). Interestingly, the Put-Call Ratio suggests oversold conditions, increasing the probability of a technical bounce early in the week. Key levels to watch for a Bullish trigger is a close above 24830 to revive positive momentum and open the path toward 25000, followed by 25180 as a major resistance and sentiment gauge. While a bearish trigger could be a Sustained breach of 24500 which may initiate a deeper corrective move. Since it is a rangebound setup with inflection trigger points, until a decisive breakout occurs, contrarian long trades near 24600 may be explored with a strict stop-loss below 24450. However, aggressive positioning should be avoided until confirmation emerges on either side.

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