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Eli Lilly launches Mounjaro in India

Eli Lilly has introduced Mounjaro (also known as Zepbound) in India for the management of obesity and diabetes.

* Better priced vs. Semaglutide: The product is priced at INR 3,500 for the 2.5 mg vial and INR 4,375 for the 5 mg vial, respectively. This makes the total monthly cost for weight management range from INR 14,000 to INR 17,000. In comparison, the imported cost of Novo's Wegovy/Ozempic can range from INR 30,000 to INR 80,000, depending on the source of import.

* Mounjaro has higher efficacy: Mounjaro/Zepbound is considered a better product than Novo's Wegovy/Ozempic, as it has demonstrated an average weight reduction of 20%, compared to 13% for Novo's product. Novo was expected to launch its product in India next year but may do so sooner.

* Semaglutide patent expiry in Mar’26: The Wegovy patent is set to expire in March 2026, which may lead to the entry of many generic players into the market. We believe this will likely reduce the cost of treatment by 50-70%. Currently, gliptin and gliflozin combinations used for diabetes management cost between INR 400 and INR 1,800 per month, depending on the dosage

* Negative for insulin: We believe the introduction of GLP-1 drugs in India could have an immediate negative impact on the growth of insulin sales. GLP-1 usage could delay the need for insulin in advanced Type 2 diabetes patients. Sanofi and Novo Nordisk (through AIL) are the two largest suppliers of insulin in India, followed by companies like Lupin, Cipla, and Wockhardt.

* GLP-1 market to expand: At present, the price points for GLP-1 products are relatively high compared to other oral treatment options, but they are expected to drop significantly once generics enter the market. If players like Lupin and Eris (which has over 20% exposure to diabetes in India) do not generate more sales from their generic versions of GLP-1, their growth in India could be impacted in the medium term

* Large TAM: At present, the Anti-Diabetic market in India is INR 206bn with Oral treatments constituting majority (74%) of the market, Insulin making up ~23% and GLP1’s forming 2% of the market. India has a diabetes population of approximately 100 million, with another 140 million people in a prediabetic condition, according to the ICMR. The obese population in India is around 80 million, according to the Lancet. However, we anticipate that this product could be used beyond its approved indications. Currently, it is approved for use in individuals with a BMI of 30 or more, but we expect that people with a BMI of 25 to 30 may also start using it.

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