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Latest bidding rounds imply ~USD3.8/kg LCOH currently 

The latest bidding rounds in the key refinery and fertilizer sectors have discovered Indian green hydrogen levelized cost at ~USD3.8/kg, excluding GST, vs our FY24 expectation of ~USD4/kg – slightly down, likely due to better electrolyzer economics. The SECI has undertaken the first green ammonia tender under the SIGHT scheme (Mode 2A, Tranche 1), wherein 0.72mmtpa of green ammonia would be supplied to 13 fertilizer plants for 10 years. Per various publicly available results, an average price of ~USD0.6/kg was offered by winners to consuming fertilizer plants, with Rs8.8/7.1/5.3 per kg incentives for the first 3 years under the SIGHT scheme. Green hydrogen content in ammonia at 17-18% translates into a hydrogen equivalent price of USD3.8- 3.9/kg. Additionally, three key refinery tenders were also won, with 5ktpa HPCL Vizag and 5ktpa BPCL Bina at ~USD3.8/kg each, and 10ktpa IOCL Panipat at USD3.95/kg; these likely exclude any incentives. Green hydrogen prices seem to be gradually declining and the targeted rate of USD1-2/kg still seems far, though with steps like cut in RE equipment GST rate to 5% from 12%, energy cost should reduce further. The 18% GST in green hydrogen however also needs to be reduced. The government is optimistic about meeting the 5mmtpa target by CY30 – while this is still a challenge, large players like RIL and Adani announcing tangible targets implies it is not impossible to achieve it.

RE value chain players win first green ammonia tender

The SECI tender was launched in Jun-24 with Jun-25 as the deadline, and results were announced from end Jul-25. Per publicly available sources, Jakson Green won 85ktpa at a price of USD0.58/kg (ex-SIGHT incentives), to be supplied to Coromandel International. Oriana/NTPC Renewables won 60/70ktpa at USD0.59/kg each, to be supplied to Bharat Agro/Krishna Phoschem, while SCC Infra-InSolare/ACME Cleantech won 70/75ktpa at USD0.60/0.64 per kg, to be supplied to Bharat Agro/Paradeep Phosphates plants. The supply tenure is 10 years. The price of green hydrogen under these ranges from USD3.3/kg to USD3.6/kg, while an average incentive of USD0.4-0.5/kg implies LCOH of USD3.8-3.9/kg, discovered through these bidding rounds. Total green ammonia volumes to be awarded, to 13 fertilizer plants, would be 0.724mmtpa. The supplying plants are likely to commission in 2-4 years from now.

OMCs also finalize 20ktpa of green hydrogen tenders

IOCL, HPCL, and BPCL also launched global tenders in the last few years, to award sizable green-hydrogen supply business under the Build Own Operate (BOO) mode; three of their refineries secured 20ktpa for a tenure of 15 to 25 years. IOCL’s Panipat Refinery awarded 10ktpa to L&T Energy Greentech India in May-25 at ex-GST price of USD3.95/kg for 25 years. The captive plant is scheduled for commissioning by Dec-27, and the electrolyzer would be alkaline, running on RTC power. HPCL’s Vizag Refinery also awarded a 25-year 5ktpa tender to Abu Dhabi-based Ocior Energy at USD3.82/kg, while BPCL’s Bina Refinery has reportedly awarded a 15-year 5ktpa tender also to Ocior. Similar to IOCL, these plants are also likely to take 3-4 years to construct near-premise.

Government remains optimistic about achieving the 5mmtpa target by CY30; RIL unveils numbers

The government remains optimistic about achieving the 5mmtpa National Green Hydrogen Mission target – which is aggressive and the build-up domestically is not clear yet. However, Adani New Industries (ANIL) has indicated a 2.1mmtpa target and Reliance Industries (RIL) also recently stated its plan to upscale to 3mmtpa by CY32; hence, >5mmtpa of green hydrogen production by CY32 (if not CY30), by these two large houses alone, is possible, though the companies may have plans to export a considerable portion of this due to better economics outside and due to incentives for export-oriented units. ANIL aims to achieve electrolyzer manufacturing capacity of 5GWpa, while RIL has stated it can scale up, to 3GWpa, with gigafactory commissioning by CY26-end.

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