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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.74% to settle at Rs 90,057 as a broader market selloff, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive import tariffs, pressured bullion traders. Trump's tariffs sparked fears of slower economic growth, leading to a sharp downturn in financial markets. The U.S. administration confirmed that a 25% global tariff on cars and trucks will be implemented on April 3, with additional duties on automotive parts following on May 3. These trade uncertainties continue to influence gold prices as investors assess the economic impact of the new policies. Despite better-than-expected U.S. private payroll data in March, economists still see signs of a slowing labor market amid rising economic uncertainties caused by tariffs. Central banks are expected to remain key players in gold’s rally this year, as many are looking to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar. However, physical gold demand in India remained sluggish due to record-high prices and financial year-end closures among jewellers. Indian gold dealers offered discounts of up to $33 per ounce, lower than last week's $41, while top consumer China also saw subdued demand. Notably, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong fell sharply in February, marking the second consecutive month where imports were lower than exports. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh selling, with open interest rising by 0.86% to 18,775 contracts. Gold has support at Rs 88,715, with further downside potential to Rs 87,370, while resistance is seen at Rs 91,415, with a breakout possibly testing Rs 92,770.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 87370-92770.
* Gold fell as a wider market selloff triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's import tariffs infected bullion traders.
* Trump said that he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the U.S. and higher duties on dozens of other countries
* Trump's tariffs drove a sharp slide in financial markets because of concerns they could dampen economic growth.

Silver

Silver prices fell sharply by 5.37% to settle at Rs 94,399 as traders reacted to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, which rattled global financial markets. The newly announced tariffs include a 54% total tariff rate on Chinese imports, with additional duties on goods from India (26%), South Korea (25%), Australia (10%), and the European Union (20%). Market sentiment turned bearish amid concerns over global economic stability, particularly as U.S. economic data indicated a slowdown, with manufacturing slipping into contraction and job openings falling more than expected to 7.57 million in February. Despite short-term volatility, the silver market is poised to maintain a significant deficit in 2025 for the fifth consecutive year. Industrial demand remains the key driver, projected to hit a record high of 700 million ounces, particularly benefiting from applications in the green economy.  Total global silver supply is forecast to increase by 3% in 2025, reaching an 11-year high of 1.05 billion ounces. Mine production will rise to 844 million ounces, while silver recycling is projected to increase by 5%. The market deficit is expected to shrink by 19% to 149 million ounces but remains historically significant. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 10.11% to 21,514 contracts. Prices have support at Rs 92,290, with a further downside to Rs 90,190, while resistance is seen at Rs 98,075, with a breakout potentially testing Rs 1,01,760.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90190-101760.
* Silver slid as traders grappled with market uncertainties following US President sweeping tariff measures.
* The new reciprocal rate on China will be 54 percent.
* US economic data showed the manufacturing sector slipped into contraction in March.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices plummeted by 6.7% to settle at Rs 5,735 as market sentiment turned bearish following an announcement by eight OPEC+ countries to advance their output hike plan. The group decided to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, intensifying concerns of an oversupplied market. Although OPEC cited strong fundamentals, it also hinted at pausing future increases if necessary. Adding to the downward pressure, U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of new tariffs raised fears of a global trade war, potentially slowing economic growth and reducing fuel demand. Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its December production estimate downward by 40,000 bpd to 13.45 million bpd. Meanwhile, crude inventories in the U.S. rose by 6.165 million barrels in the week ending March 28, significantly above market expectations of a 2 million draw, while crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub surged by 2.373 million barrels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global oil supply surplus of 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, which could grow to 1 million bpd if OPEC+ continues easing production cuts. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure as open interest surged by 59.24% to 11,333 contracts. Prices have immediate support at Rs 5,554, with further downside potential to Rs 5,372, while resistance is seen at Rs 6,009, with a breakout possibly testing Rs 6,282.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5372-6282.
* Crude oil dropped OPEC+ to raise crude oil output by 411,000 b/d in May
* OPEC cited strong market fundamentals but suggested future increases could be paused if needed.
* US President Trump's new tariffs sparked fears of a global trade war, slowing economic growth and reducing fuel demand.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 1.73% to settle at Rs 353.8, driven by a drop in output and an upward revision in demand forecasts for the next two weeks. This increase occurred despite lower gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Gas stockpiles remained about 4% below the seasonal average due to significant withdrawals during the extreme cold weather in January and February, including record draws in January. According to LSEG, average gas production in the Lower 48 U.S. states has declined to 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April, down from the record 106.2 bcfd in March. U.S. utilities added 29 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ending March 28, exceeding market expectations of a 27 bcf build. This marks the third consecutive weekly increase in storage, contrasting with last year’s 37 bcf draw and the five-year average draw of 13 bcf. Storage levels remain 21.7% lower than last year and 4.3% below the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts record-high natural gas production and demand in 2025, with dry gas output reaching 104.6 bcfd, up from 103.1 bcfd in 2024, while LNG exports are expected to grow to 14.0 bcfd in 2025 and 16.2 bcfd in 2026. Technically, natural gas is experiencing fresh buying momentum, with open interest rising by 9.23% to 12,136 contracts. Support is seen at Rs 343.2, with further downside potential to Rs 332.5, while resistance is expected at Rs361.9, with a breakout potentially pushing prices to Rs 369.9.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 332.5-369.9.
* Natural gas climbed on a drop in output over the last few days.
* EIA said energy firms added 29 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended March 28.
* Energy traders said mild weather and low demand last month likely allowed utilities to add gas to storage in March for the first time since 2012.


Copper

Copper prices fell by 2.73% to settle at Rs 866.25 amid growing concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on key trading partners could trigger a global recession. The introduction of a minimum 10% tariff on most U.S. imports, along with significantly higher duties on products from several countries, has heightened fears of inflation and slower economic growth worldwide. Despite these concerns, China’s manufacturing sector showed resilience, with the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February, indicating expansion. However, the global copper market remains tight. The premium of Comex copper over LME prices eased to $1,469 per ton after hitting a record high of $1,615 earlier this week. On the demand side, China's refined copper production increased by 3.7% in January and February, reaching approximately 2.3 million metric tons. The global refined copper market recorded a 19,000 metric ton deficit in January, down slightly from a 22,000 metric ton shortfall in December. China's unwrought copper imports fell by 7.2% year-on-year to 837,000 metric tons in the first two months of 2025, as higher domestic smelting capacity reduced reliance on imports. Technically, copper is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 1.13% to 8,252 contracts. Support is seen at Rs 859, with a potential test of Rs 851.7 on further declines, while resistance is expected at Rs 879.8, with a breakout possibly driving prices toward Rs 893.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 851.7-893.3.
* Copper dropped on fears U.S. President aggressive tariffs on key trading partners could fuel a global recession.
* Trump introduced a minimum tariff of 10% on most goods imported to the United States.
* The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in March, from 50.8 in February

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 2.36% to settle at Rs 258.1, driven by concerns over global demand following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The trade tensions have heightened fears of a slowdown in industrial activity, which could impact metal consumption. Despite this, China's manufacturing sector showed unexpected resilience, with the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI indicating strong activity as factories accelerated shipments ahead of tariff implementation. On the supply side, the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 10,000 metric tons in January from 41,100 tons in December, reflecting some easing in tightness. However, concerns over supply remain due to falling zinc inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which declined by 6.9% from the previous week. China's zinc production rose by 1.8% year-on-year in January and February to 1.13 million metric tons, with smelters showing increased willingness to ramp up production. Meanwhile, Nyrstar’s announcement of a 25% production cut at its Hobart operations in Australia has fueled supply concerns, given the plant’s 260,000-ton annual capacity. Additionally, on-warrant LME stocks fell to 94,700 tons, their lowest level since November 2023, following 42,575 tons of cancellations. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 7.36% to 3,649 contracts. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs 256.2, with a break below potentially leading to Rs 254.3. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 261.6, with a move above possibly driving prices toward Rs 265.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 254.3-265.1.
* Zinc dropped as sweeping reciprocal tariffs from U.S. sparked concerns about global demand.
* China's manufacturing sector was expanding more than expected.
* Global zinc market deficit fell to 10,000 metric tons in January from 41,100 tons in December.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by 1.55% to settle at Rs 238.45, as escalating trade tensions and newly imposed tariffs dampened global demand. U.S. President Donald Trump's introduction of sweeping "reciprocal tariffs," including a 10% baseline duty on imports and higher levies on major economies like China (54%) and the EU (20%), has raised concerns about trade disruptions. Additionally, a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and a 200% tariff on Russian aluminum have contributed to market uncertainty. Rising protectionism has weighed heavily on aluminum prices, despite supply constraints in some regions. On the supply side, global primary aluminum output in February declined by 0.9% year-on-year to 5.645 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. However, China's aluminum production reached a record 44 million tonnes in 2024, with further output growth constrained by Beijing's 45 million-ton cap set to curb oversupply and meet carbon emission targets. China's aluminium production rose by 2.6% year-on-year to 7.32 million metric tons in January and February, driven by improved smelter profitability due to easing alumina supply constraints. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing by 0.45% to 4,041 contracts. Aluminium is currently seeing support at Rs 237.1, with a break below potentially leading to Rs 235.8. On the upside, resistance is expected at Rs 240.6, and a move above could push prices toward Rs 242.8.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 235.8-242.8.
* Aluminium dropped as escalating trade tensions and tariffs weighed on global demand
* President Trump announced sweeping "reciprocal tariffs," setting a 10% baseline duty on imports and imposing steep levies on major economies.
* Output is increasing, with alumina producers in Guinea, Australia, and China expanding capacity.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices settled lower by 1.15% at Rs 54,980 due to profit booking after recent gains driven by lower-than-expected U.S. planting estimates. The USDA's planting intentions report projected U.S. all-cotton planting at 9.8 million acres for 2025, reflecting a significant 12% reduction from 2024. Similarly, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its 2024-25 crop estimate downward by 2% to 295.30 lakh bales due to lower-than-expected output in central India. Declining domestic production has prompted a sharp rise in cotton imports, with CAI estimating a surge to 32 lakh bales in the 2024-25 season, compared to 15.2 lakh bales in the previous year. By February-end, India had already imported 22 lakh bales. However, lower exports are expected, with shipments projected to drop by 40% to 17 lakh bales, down from 28.36 lakh bales last year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s cotton production is forecasted to grow by 1.6% to 3.76 million tons, supported by a 4.8% expansion in the planting area. Despite tight domestic supply, upside in prices remains limited due to increased global production and subdued mill demand. Mills remain well-stocked and are not under immediate purchasing pressure. Technically, fresh selling pressure has emerged, with open interest rising by 1.32% to 231 contracts. Cottoncandy has key support at Rs 54,700, with further downside potential to Rs 54,420. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 55,180, and a breakout above could push prices toward Rs 55,380.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 54420-55380.
* Cotton dropped  on profit booking after prices gained after USDA report showed lower-than-expected U.S. planting estimates.
* USDA's planting intentions report showed U.S. all-cotton intended planting of 9.8 million acres for 2025, a 12% reduction from 2024.
* CAI has further reduced its 2024-25 crop estimate by 2 per cent to 295.30 lakh bales.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25701.1 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged up by 0.07%, settling at 14,928, as lower-than-expected arrivals restricted supplies, leading to strong buying interest. Demand remained firm, especially with exports reaching a four-year high in the second half of 2024, surpassing 2020’s record of 1.75 lakh tonnes. Concerns over lower yields due to untimely rains further supported prices. The Nanded region has been particularly affected, with reports of small rhizomes and crop rots, contributing to an estimated 10-15% decline in productivity. However, confirmation of these losses will be clearer once harvesting progresses in the primary producing areas. Despite an increase in turmeric acreage this season, from 3 lakh hectares to 3.30 lakh hectares (a 10% rise), overall production is unlikely to see a significant boost due to weather-related issues. Last year’s turmeric production stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes, and this season’s output is expected to either remain stable or fluctuate by 3-5%. On the trade front, turmeric exports saw a notable rise, increasing by 13% year-on-year from April to December 2024, reaching 136,921 tonnes. December 2024 alone saw a 46.94% increase in exports compared to December 2023. Meanwhile, turmeric imports surged by 84.35% during the same period, but December imports saw a significant month-on-month decline of 44.66%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping by 10.91% to 4,615 contracts. Turmeric has strong support at 14,628, with a further downside target of 14,328 if selling pressure emerges. On the upside, resistance is seen at 15,364, and a breakout could push prices toward 15,800.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14328-15800.
* Turmeric rose as lower-than-expected arrivals restricted supplies, leading to strong buying interest.
* Exports continued to pick up in the second half of 2024, with shipments reaching a four-year high.
* New crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year, with the Nanded region particularly affected.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14520.05 Rupees gained by 1.85 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices rose by 0.7% to settle at 23,120, supported by steady domestic demand and export activity, particularly from Gulf countries. Limited arrivals from Rajasthan kept near-term supplies tight, while the delayed cumin crop in Gujarat added to supply concerns. Weather disruptions postponed sowing by about a month in key producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan. However, the upside was capped as demand remained subdued, with existing stockpiles meeting export needs. Farmers still hold approximately 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3-4 lakh bags expected to be traded by season-end, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to remain similar to last year due to favorable crop conditions. According to Spices Board data, cumin production in India increased to 8.6 lakh tonnes from an area of over 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, compared to 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares in the previous year. Indian cumin remains the cheapest globally, attracting buyers, particularly from China, where cumin prices are $200-$250 per tonne higher. Exports surged significantly, rising 70.72% year-on-year from April to December 2024, reaching 165,084.40 tonnes. December 2024 saw a 56.45% increase in exports compared to November 2024 and a 47.77% rise compared to December 2023. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 5.73% to 2,271 contracts. Jeera finds support at 22,870, with further downside potential at 22,600, while resistance is placed at 23,540, and a breakout could push prices toward 23,940.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22600-23940.
* Jeera gained amid price support from domestic demand, as well as export activity from Gulf countries.
* The current season is expected to have similar production levels as last year due to better crop conditions and good sowing.
* Jeera exports during Apr - Dec 2024, rose by 70.72 percent at 165,084.40 tonnes as compared to 96,701.43 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2023.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 23000 Rupees dropped by -0.17 percent.

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