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Gold

Gold prices climbed by 0.26% to settle at 78,532, driven primarily by heightened safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Escalating conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah have fueled demand for bullion, as indicated by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's calls for a diplomatic resolution to protect civilians. In the U.S., recent economic indicators showed resilience, with a sharp drop in unemployment claims and robust private sector momentum highlighted by the S&P PMI data, both of which underscore the strength of the labor market. However, gold’s upward trend remains bolstered by concerns over potential global conflicts and the uncertain outcome of the U.S. elections, creating a safe-haven appeal for investors. Physical gold markets, however, saw a contrasting trend. Indian gold dealers offered discounts of up to $8 per ounce as record-high prices deterred buyers ahead of key festivals. In China, top consumer discounts narrowed to $3-$14 per ounce, down from last week's $15-$31, but demand remains soft due to elevated prices and an economic slowdown. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), global gold demand (excluding OTC trading) declined by 6% year-on-year in Q2 2024 to 929 metric tons, with jewelry demand particularly affected, dropping 19% as consumers grapple with high prices. On the technical front, the market saw short covering with a 0.31% reduction in open interest, boosting prices by 205 rupees. Gold has support at 78,050, with a potential test of 77,570 if it falls further. Resistance is seen at 78,795, and a break above this level could lead prices toward 79,060, signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook amid geopolitical and economic tensions.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 77570-79060.
* Gold gains as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bolstered safe-haven demand.
* Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election has further boosted bullion demand.
* India demand picks up slightly as key festival nears
 

Silver

Silver edged up by 0.11% to close at 97,134 amid safe-haven buying, as ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty around the U.S. election heightened demand. The latest U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture, with consumer sentiment reaching a six-month high of 70.5 in October, according to the University of Michigan. However, new orders for durable goods fell by $2.2 billion, or 0.8%, in September, driven by a notable decline in transportation equipment. This marked the third drop in four months, underscoring a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, though initial jobless claims showed resilience, falling to 227,000 after the recent hurricane impacts. The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 in October from 47.3 in September, signaling a slight improvement yet remaining in contraction territory. In India, silver imports are expected to nearly double this year, fueled by robust demand from solar panel and electronics manufacturers and investors seeing silver as an attractive asset over gold. India’s silver imports surged to 4,554 tons in H1 2024, a significant rise from 560 tons a year ago, largely due to inventory buildup after depleted stock levels in 2023. This strong industrial demand could further support global prices, which are already near a decade-high. Technically, silver is in a short-covering phase, with open interest decreasing by 2.22% to settle at 23,061 contracts while prices rose by 102 rupees. Silver has support at 95,810, with further support at 94,490, while resistance is at 98,260.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 94490-99390.
* Silver gained on safe-haven buying amid persisting worries about the tensions in the Middle East.
* Anxiety over the impending U.S. election also contributed to increased demand for the metal.
* Consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 70.5 in October 2024 from a preliminary of 68.9

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 2.18% to settle at 6,040, driven by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which stoked concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply. Heightened uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election added to market anxieties, as the potential policy shifts could impact U.S. crude supply. Continued attacks by Israel on Gaza and Lebanon, along with strikes on Syria’s Damascus and Homs, underscored the precarious state of the region. China’s recent stimulus measures lent some support to oil prices, though concerns persist over long-term demand and the possibility of a global surplus. In the latest inventory data, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a U.S. crude stock increase of 1.6 million barrels, exceeding forecasts of a 0.7 million rise. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a rise of 5.474 million barrels in crude inventories, with gasoline stocks up by 0.878 million, although Cushing, Oklahoma, storage declined slightly by 0.346 million barrels. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook revised down expectations for global oil demand growth next year by 300,000 bpd, with projected demand reaching 104.3 million bpd, citing economic headwinds in China and North America. Technically, the crude oil market observed short covering, evidenced by a 7% decrease in open interest, which pushed prices up by 129 rupees. Support is now seen at 5,938, with potential to test 5,837 if prices fall further. Resistance stands at 6,101, and a break above this level could push prices towards 6,163, indicating a cautiously bullish outlook amid ongoing geopolitical risks and supply concerns.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5837-6163.
* Crude oil gains as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered concerns over supply.
* China’s stimulus measures have supported oil prices, but concerns persist over long-term demand and a potential global surplus.
* Iraq's September oil exports average 3.31 mln bpd, oil ministry says


Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 2.26% to close at 258.2, supported by forecasts for cooler weather, which is expected to increase heating demand in the coming two weeks. Additionally, elevated global gas prices are likely to drive U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports higher. However, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report revealed that utilities added a larger-than-expected 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage, above the five-year average of 76 bcf. This build-up reflects the current storage levels standing 4.6% above average, following 14 consecutive weeks of below-average additions, attributed to reduced drilling activity this year. Production in the Lower 48 states has slightly decreased to 101.5 bcf per day in October, down from September’s 101.8 bcfd and below the record 105.5 bcfd reached in December 2023. Despite this, the EIA forecasts a record rise in natural gas demand, predicting that consumption will reach 90.1 bcfd in 2024, driven largely by increased heating and LNG exports, projected at 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and rising further in 2025. In terms of weather, although meteorologists forecast warmer-than-normal temperatures through early November, these seasonal shifts are still expected to drive demand. LSEG projects average gas demand, including exports, will increase from 95.4 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week and 102.4 bcfd in two weeks. Technically, the natural gas market experienced fresh buying with a 14.83% rise in open interest, totaling 16,948 contracts, alongside a 5.7 rupee price increase. Natural gas has support at 252.2, with further support at 246.3, while resistance stands at 261.9. A move above this level could see prices testing 265.7, signaling bullish sentiment driven by seasonal demand and export expectations.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 246.3-265.7.
* Natural gas gains driven by forecasts for cooler weather and increased heating demand over the next two weeks.
* Rising global gas prices are also expected to boost US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
* Utilities added more gas to storage than usual, following 14 straight weeks of smaller additions due to reduced drilling this year.


Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.25% to settle at 836.7, as China’s recent stimulus measures failed to fully ease concerns about weak demand. Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses dropped by 3.2% from last week, a positive sign, yet insufficient to offset demand anxieties. Despite implementing multiple monetary easing measures, including rate cuts, China’s support measures have yet to significantly stimulate demand in the copper market. Investors anticipate further fiscal stimulus measures at the upcoming National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, with expectations for a potential 10 trillion yuan stimulus package as China works toward its full-year growth targets. Additionally, China will allow imports of compliant recycled copper materials starting November 15, aiding its recycling industry and possibly increasing copper supply. China's refined copper production in September was 1.14 million metric tons, up 0.4% from the previous year. Global copper surplus data indicated a supply surplus of 54,000 metric tons in August, down from 73,000 tons in July, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). China’s copper imports in September rose by 15.4% month-on-month, reflecting seasonal demand improvements, though the annual import levels remain steady. Technically, the market saw fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 7.89% to settle at 7,478 while prices fell by 2.1 rupees. Copper finds support at 832.3, with potential to test 827.9 if further downward pressure persists. On the upside, resistance is seen at 841.8, and a move above this level could drive prices to test 846.9, indicating cautious sentiment as the market monitors further developments in China’s economic measures and global copper demand.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 827.9-846.9.
* Copper dropped after stimulus measures from China failed to ease demand worry.
* MMG says its Q3 total copper production reached 114,664 tonnes, a 22% increase vs a year ago and a 26% rise vs Q2
* # Peru's Las Bambas mine produced 90,595 tonnes of copper, making Q3 the strongest quarter since 2021


Zinc

Zinc prices fell by 1.63% to 287.35 due to profit booking, as China's refined zinc production rose over 2% in September, driven by increased output from smelters in Sichuan, Gansu, Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia following maintenance recoveries. October production is expected to increase slightly, with growth concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Hunan as more smelters resume operations. Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced a significant premium jump on cash zinc over the three-month contract to $58 a ton, the highest since September 2022, indicating tight short-term supply. This spike, known as backwardation, is tied to one party controlling 50-79% of available stocks in LME warehouses, along with long positions held on LME futures for November and December, leading speculators to anticipate a potential rally due to the tightness. Additionally, global zinc markets showed a larger deficit, rising to 66,300 tons in August from 51,000 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). While China's refined zinc production increased over 2% month-on-month (MoM), it was down by over 8% year-on-year (YoY). Domestic zinc alloy production rose by more than 2,000 tons MoM, suggesting stable demand in China despite elevated production. On the technical front, zinc is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 6.97% to 2,471 contracts as prices fell by 4.75 rupees. Zinc finds support at 283.4, with further support at 279.4, while resistance is at 290.6. A move above 290.6 could see prices testing 293.8, suggesting a cautious outlook as production recovery and tight LME inventories influence market dynamics.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 279.4-293.8.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking amid China's refined zinc production increased by over 2% MoM, in September 2024.
* Smelters' production is expected to continue increasing in October
* The global zinc market deficit increased to 66,300 metric tons in August from 51,000 tons in July


Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.72% to settle at 243.6 as concerns over alumina shortages sparked systematic buying by funds. Guinea's suspension of bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) two weeks ago tightened supply, affecting global alumina availability. London Metal Exchange (LME) data indicated large futures positions, with over 40% of open interest for December buys and 30-39% for January sales, indicating a strong positioning shift in aluminium. Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2025 aluminium price forecast to $2,700 per ton from $2,540, citing potential demand growth in China following stimulus efforts. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from its July estimate, though it maintained this year’s outlook at 3.2%. The IMF acknowledged central banks' efforts to control inflation amid rising global risks. Aluminium production data reflected a year-on-year increase, with September’s global primary output up 1.3% to 6.007 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). China, the top producer, saw aluminium output rise to 3.65 million tons in September, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand and favorable producer margins. Daily output rose from 120,322 tons in August to 121,667 tons in September, as stable hydropower in Yunnan province enabled steady operation rates. On the technical front, the aluminium market observed fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 14.09% to 3,449 contracts, driving prices up by 1.75 rupees. Aluminium finds support at 239.9, with potential for testing 236.3 if prices fall, while resistance is seen at 245.6. A move above this resistance could lead to prices testing 247.7, supported by alumina supply concerns and speculative interest.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 236.3-247.7.
* Aluminium prices rose supported by a tightening alumina market.
* Goldman Sachs raises 2025 average aluminum price forecast to $2,700/t
* Exports of alumina raw material bauxite from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC) were suspended by Guinea


Cotton

Cotton prices dipped by 0.56% to close at 56,360, pressured by subdued demand in the yarn market and payment constraints affecting transactions. USDA revised India’s cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season down to 30.72 million bales, and ending stocks were reduced to 12.38 million bales due to damage from excessive rains and pest issues. Global cotton production projections, however, increased by over 200,000 bales, with higher output expected from China, Brazil, and Argentina, offsetting declines in the U.S. and Spain. In India, cotton acreage fell by around 9% year-on-year to 110.49 lakh hectares, mainly as farmers in Gujarat opted to plant groundnuts for better returns. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) forecasts a 7.4% decline in India’s cotton production to 30.2 million bales, likely resulting in increased imports from 1.75 million bales last year to 2.5 million bales, while exports are expected to drop to 1.8 million bales. This decline reflects the ongoing shift in agricultural focus and lower planted area, which fell to 11.29 million hectares from 12.69 million hectares a year ago. On the U.S. front, the cotton balance sheet was adjusted downward due to Hurricane Helene’s impact, reducing production to 14.2 million bales. Lower production and weaker global demand led to reduced U.S. export forecasts for the season. Meanwhile, global ending stocks for 2024-25 saw a slight reduction to 76.3 million bales. Technically, the cotton market experienced fresh selling as open interest rose by 3.65%, pushing prices down by 320 rupees. Key support is now seen at 56,060, with potential to test 55,750 if further pressure persists, while resistance lies at 56,640, and a break above could push prices toward 56,910, signaling cautious sentiment amid mixed global production outlooks.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 55750-56910.
* Cotton dropped as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* India's cotton production in 2024/25 is likely to fall by 7.4% from a year ago to 30.2 million bales.
* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric

Turmeric prices dropped by 2.56% to close at 13,256, pressured by a rise in arrivals and subdued demand. The expected increase in turmeric acreage for the upcoming season, estimated at 30-35% higher than last year, signals a potential production boost, further weighing on prices. Favorable weather conditions have supported crop growth, with recent light rains in key regions like Vidarbha and Telangana benefiting the crop. However, reports of crop damage due to heavy rains may limit the downside, with anticipated losses potentially higher than earlier estimates. As harvesting is still five months away, limited supply and adverse weather conditions could provide upward price pressure in the coming weeks. In India, turmeric sowing has expanded significantly, especially on the Erode line and in states like Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Sowing is estimated to increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year compared to last year’s 3-3.25 lakh hectares. With an expected production of around 70-75 lakh bags, availability may be constrained in 2025, falling below annual consumption levels, despite a higher projected output. Additionally, export trends indicate challenges, as shipments during April-August 2024 dropped by 6.46% year-on-year. Imports, however, have surged by over 340% in the same period, reflecting rising domestic needs. Technically, turmeric is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.61% to 12,245 contracts as prices fell by 348 rupees. Support is established at 13,052, with further support at 12,848, while resistance is pegged at 13,508. A move above this level could prompt testing of 13,760, suggesting a cautiously bearish outlook in the near term amid higher production expectations and ongoing demand fluctuations.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12848-13760.
* Turmeric dropped due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* Pressure also seen as the expected acreage for the upcoming season is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year
* India’s festival season demand is expected to surge, particularly with CAIT forecasting 48 lakh marriages in the upcoming season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13775 Rupees dropped by -0.97 percent.


Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 2.1% to settle at 24,490, influenced by increased arrivals, with daily inflows of 15,000-16,000 bags in Unjha. Farmers reportedly hold about 35% of the season's stock, while carryover stock at the season’s start is estimated at 20 lakh bags. Though domestic demand remains moderate, there’s optimism for improved export business after Diwali, with October exports projected between 15,000 to 17,000 tons. Looking ahead, November-December exports are expected to rise further. The sowing of cumin will begin post-Diwali, but this year, sowing is anticipated to decrease, leading to an estimated 10% drop in production. In Rajasthan, cumin cultivation may see a 10-15% decline. India remains the most competitive supplier globally, with cumin prices at $3,050 per ton, making it significantly cheaper than Chinese cumin, which is priced $200-250 higher. Increased international demand, especially from China, is expected to lend support to prices. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have fueled demand for Indian cumin, contributing to a notable 128% year-on-year export rise in the July-September period. April-August 2024 exports rose by 61.44% to 103,614 tons compared to the same period in 2023. On the technical front, the market saw fresh selling as open interest increased by 7.08%, reflecting active participation while prices declined by 525 rupees. Key support for jeera is now seen at 24,230, with potential to test 23,970 if selling pressure persists. Resistance is set at 24,820, and a break above this level could drive prices to test 25,150, indicating cautious sentiment amid mixed domestic supply and strong international demand signals.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23970-25150.
* Jeera prices dropped as arrival has increased and around 15,000 to 16,000 bags are coming daily in Unjha.
* There is a possibility of 25 percent reduction in cumin sowing in Gujarat
* Carryover stock of 20 lakh bags of cumin is estimated in the new season
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25246.35 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

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