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Gold

Gold prices rose 0.74% to settle at 161,145, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran and lingering uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Markets are closely watching the upcoming nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, especially after President Trump warned of potential military action if Iran does not curb its nuclear ambitions. At the same time, the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling against additional tariffs has added another layer of trade uncertainty, despite the administration’s proposal of fresh global levies. Institutional outlook remains bullish. JP Morgan projects gold could climb to $6,300 per ounce by end-2026 and has lifted its long-term forecast to $4,500. Physical trade trends were mixed. Swiss gold exports fell 8% in January as shipments to the UK slowed sharply, though flows to China and India improved. In India, demand stayed subdued due to volatile prices, with dealers offering discounts of up to $18 per ounce. However, ETF inflows were strong in January. In China, gold production and central bank reserves both increased, while investment demand through bars, coins, and ETFs remained robust. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest easing 0.21% to 7,767. Support is seen at 160,320 and 159,500, while resistance stands at 161,805. A break above this could push prices toward 162,470.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 159500-162470.

* Gold price jumps amid US-Iran tensions and uncertainty over the US trade policy outlook.

* US President Trump warns of military action if Tehran denies the deal.

* The US Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s tariffs has upended the trade policy outlook.

Silver

Silver surged 2.9% to settle at 268,316, supported by a softer dollar and renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran. Markets reacted to President Trump’s remarks that most countries intend to honor existing trade agreements, even as the U.S. began imposing a temporary 10% global import tariff, with discussions underway to raise it to 15%. At the same time, the Supreme Court’s ruling against earlier reciprocal tariffs has added another layer of policy uncertainty. On the monetary front, two Federal Reserve officials signaled no urgency to adjust interest rates, while markets continue to price in three 25-basis-point cuts this year. Comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic about structurally higher unemployment due to AI adoption further shaped rate expectations. Fundamentally, the physical market remains tight. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes, their lowest level since 2015, marking a sharp decline from peak levels in 2021. London vault holdings also edged down 0.3% month-on-month to 27,729 tonnes. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 11.52% to 4,507 while prices jumped sharply. Immediate support is seen at 264,240, followed by 260,170. Resistance stands at 271,440, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 274,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 260170-274570.

* Silver prices rose lifted by a softer dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.

* Trump says "almost all" countries, corporations want to stick to tariff, investment agreements.

* Two U.S. Federal Reserve officials signaled no near-term appetite to change the setting of central bank interest rate policy.

Crude oil

Crude oil slipped 0.32% to settle at 5,989 after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported the largest weekly crude inventory build in three years. U.S. crude stocks jumped by 15.99 million barrels to 435.8 million in the week ended February 20, far exceeding expectations of a modest rise. Inventories at Cushing also increased, while distillate stocks posted a small build. Gasoline inventories, however, declined more than forecast. Despite the bearish inventory data, geopolitical tensions kept losses in check. The U.S. has positioned military forces in the Middle East amid rising friction with Iran over its nuclear program. Any escalation could disrupt supplies from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, and the broader region. Saudi Arabia has reportedly prepared contingency plans to boost output if regional flows are hit. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to consider raising production by 137,000 barrels per day in April as it unwinds its voluntary pause. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency raised its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd. The EIA expects U.S. output to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.61% to 16,162. Support is seen at 5,927 and 5,864, while resistance stands at 6,063. A break above this could push prices toward 6,136.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5864-6136.

* Crude oil dropped after the US Energy Information Administration reported the largest weekly crude inventory build in three years.

* API reported a massive increase in U.S. oil stockpiles of 11.43 mbls in the week ended February 20.

* OPEC+ will likely consider raising its oil output by 137,000 bpd for April to end a three-month pause in production increases.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose 0.92% to settle at 264.5, supported by near-record flows to LNG export facilities and slightly stronger short-term demand expectations. Average gas output across the Lower 48 climbed to 108.7 bcfd in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January, and not far from December’s record 109.7 bcfd. At the same time, LNG feedgas flows increased to 18.7 bcfd, putting February on track to surpass December’s all-time high. Weather remains a key driver. As power was restored in the U.S. Northeast following a major winter storm, forecasts shifted toward warmer-than-normal conditions through March 11. LSEG estimates total demand, including exports, will ease from 138.3 bcfd this week to 128.4 bcfd next week, though this week’s outlook was revised slightly higher. On the supply side, storage data showed a 144 bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 13, broadly in line with expectations. Total inventories now stand at 2.070 tcf, down 2.8% from a year ago and 5.6% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, the EIA expects production to reach fresh record highs in 2026 and 2027, while demand holds near current levels. Technically, the market is seeing fresh buying, with open interest up 8.75% to 23,519. Support lies at 258.8 and 253.1, while resistance is seen at 268.8. A breakout above this level could push prices toward 273.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 253.1-273.1.

* Natural gas climbed on near-record flows to LNG export plants and forecasts for more demand next week than previously expected.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.7 bcfdso far in February from 106.3 bcfd in January.

* Storage was about 6% below normal in mid February, but the deficit to narrow to around 1% after mild weather limited withdrawals.

Copper

Copper rose 1.02% to settle at 1,211.35, buoyed by improved growth sentiment after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs. The ruling lifted risk appetite and reinforced expectations of stronger demand, particularly from China. The Yangshan copper premium climbed to $53 a ton from $33 before the Lunar New Year holiday, signaling tighter import conditions and firmer appetite in the world’s top consumer. At the same time, visible inventories have surged. LME warehouse stocks stand at 249,650 tons, their highest since early March and up more than 80% since early January. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have jumped 180% since mid-December, and combined stocks across LME, ShFE, and Comex have crossed one million tons for the first time in over two decades. The global refined market showed a 173,000-ton surplus in December, according to the ICSG. On the supply side, mine output in Chile and Peru declined year-on-year, while China expanded refined production, with December output up 9.1%. However, China’s unwrought copper imports for 2025 fell 6.4%, reflecting high prices. Technically, fresh buying is evident, with open interest rising 12.96% to 17,583. Support is seen at 1,203.5 and 1,195.6, while resistance stands at 1,216.1. A sustained move higher could test 1,220.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1195.6-1220.8.

* Copper rose as growth optimism grew after US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

* Citi sees copper rising to $14,000/T in three months

* Copper market in 173,000 metric tons surplus in Dec 2025 – ICSG

Zinc

Zinc edged up 0.06% to settle at 328.5, supported by expectations of post-holiday restocking in China and continued concerns over tight supply. Sentiment improved as Chinese markets reopened, while low inventories and ongoing mine disruptions lent additional support. A mine in southwest China remains temporarily shut, and another lead-zinc operation in central China has paused output for seasonal reasons, trimming near-term concentrate supply. That said, gains were capped by lingering demand concerns following mixed Chinese economic data. The People’s Bank of China acknowledged economic imbalances but pledged stronger financial support to boost domestic demand and innovation. On the supply front, global dynamics remain mixed. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a narrower global deficit of 33,000 tons in 2025, as refined production rose 2.1%, led by a 6.1% increase in China. December refined zinc output in China hit a record 675,000 tons, reflecting smelters ramping up to capitalize on stronger prices. Meanwhile, major mines such as Tara in Ireland and Kipushi in the DRC have resumed or increased production, adding to supply expectations. Goldman Sachs now sees the market shifting into a small surplus this year. Technically, the market shows fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.59% to 3,920. Support is seen at 326.6 and 324.8, while resistance stands at 330.6. A sustained move above this could test 332.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 324.8-332.8.

* Zinc gains as traders bet on restocking demand after Chinese market participants returned after holidays.

* The global zinc market posted a deficit of 33,000 metric tons in 2025, down from a 69,000-ton shortfall in 2024.

* Total reported zinc inventories, fell by 77,000 tons to 739,000 tons by the end of 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium gained 1.07% to settle at 313.15, supported by improved sentiment after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, raising hopes of a softer trade stance. Investors are still weighing the broader direction of U.S. tariff policy, while trading activity in China picked up following the holiday break. Fundamentally, supply trends remain mixed. Data from the International Aluminium Institute showed global primary aluminium output at 6.317 million tons in January, slightly above December levels and higher year-on-year. The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a 57,000-ton surplus in December. In China, December production hit a record 3.87 million tons, with full-year output exceeding 45 million tons, effectively brushing against the government’s capacity cap. While output growth is expected to stall this year, rising inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and at Japanese ports indicate comfortable near-term supply. On the corporate front, Century Aluminum plans to restart its Iceland smelter earlier than expected, while South32’s Mozal plant in Mozambique is set to enter care and maintenance, tightening supply elsewhere. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half price outlook, citing low global inventories and firm demand growth. Technically, the market reflects fresh buying, with open interest up 9.86% to 4,402. Support is seen at 310.9 and 308.5, while resistance stands at 314.6. A break above this could open the door to 315.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 308.5-315.9.

* Aluminium gained as optimism over potentially lower US tariffs supported the rally.

* South32, confirmed its Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique will enter care and maintenance next month.

* Global primary aluminium output in January rose 1.3% year on year to 6.317 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices slipped 0.75% to settle at 15,972, pressured by expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals from Erode over the next couple of weeks. Higher acreage this season, supported by favourable rains, has also weighed on sentiment. For 2025–26, turmeric acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, weather irregularities and localized disease issues have capped the upside in output. Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka were affected by excessive rains, with nearly 15% of the crop in parts of Marathwada impacted by waterlogging and disease. Despite this, all-India dried production is estimated at 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting overall availability. Strong domestic and export demand, particularly from Europe and the US, is offering support. Exports during April–December 2025 rose nearly 4% year-on-year, while imports dropped sharply by over 41%. In Nizamabad spot market, prices gained 1.19% to close at 15,731.8, reflecting steady physical demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest up 2.47% to 18,220. Support is seen at 15,698 and 15,426, while resistance stands at 16,296. A break above this could push prices toward 16,622.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15426-16622.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15731.8 Rupees gained by 1.19 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped 0.97% to settle at 22,495 as the arrival of the new crop began in select mandis, with supplies expected to gather momentum from March. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export demand also weighed on sentiment. At Unjha, the key spot market, prices eased slightly to ?22,308. However, limited arrivals and firm prices for premium-quality cumin helped cushion the downside. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, raising concerns over output. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Reports of aphid infestation in Rajasthan have added to supply worries. Globally, production in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan is also expected to remain modest due to weather and geopolitical disruptions. Export performance remains weak. Shipments during April–December 2025 fell 12.08% year-on-year, with December exports down sharply compared to last year. Although GST on jeera has been reduced to 5%, supporting domestic and FMCG demand, foreign buying remains price-sensitive. Technically, fresh selling is visible with open interest up 0.7% to 4,290. Support is seen at 22,340 and 22,190, while resistance stands at 22,710. A move above this could push prices toward 22,930.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22190-22930.

* Jeera settled down as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22308.05 Rupees dropped by -0.3 percent.

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