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Gold

Gold prices settled marginally lower by 0.13% at 161,978 as investors closely monitored developments surrounding the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Market sentiment remained cautious after Trump stated that Xi had agreed to assist Iran “with whatever” support was needed, while Xi warned that disputes over Taiwan could create further geopolitical instability. Pressure on bullion also emerged after stronger-than-expected US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. US import and export prices recorded their sharpest monthly increase since March 2022, driven by rising fuel import costs and higher non-agricultural export prices. Retail sales increased 0.5%, matching market expectations, while producer prices registered their biggest rise in four years. Following hotter-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data, markets have largely priced out interest rate cuts in 2026, with CME FedWatch indicating nearly a 30% probability of a rate hike by December. Elevated energy prices and persistent inflationary pressures continue to support a higher interest rate environment, limiting upside in bullion prices. In India, the government increased gold import duties to 15% from 6% to curb imports and support foreign exchange reserves. Despite softer jewellery demand due to higher prices, investment demand remained exceptionally strong. According to the World Gold Council, India’s gold ETF inflows surged 186% year-on-year during the March quarter to a record 20 metric tons, while overall investment demand jumped 52% to 82 metric tons. Global gold demand also rose 2% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest declined by 5.29% to settle at 7,924 while prices fell by 208 rupees. Gold is getting support at 160,985, below which prices may test 159,990 levels, while resistance is seen at 163,015, with a move above likely to test 164,050 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 159990-164050.

*  Gold dropped as investors focused on the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

*  Trump stated that Xi had agreed to assist with Iran "with whatever" he needs, while Xi noted progress in trade talks.

*  U.S. producer prices posted their biggest increase in four years in April, the latest sign of accelerating inflation.

Silver

Silver prices settled sharply lower by 3.04% at 291,102 as investors focused on developments from the two-day summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while also reacting to fresh economic and inflation-related data from the United States. Market sentiment improved slightly after both leaders agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to ensure uninterrupted global energy flows. The summit also highlighted progress in trade-related cooperation, including China’s commitment to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products and discussions surrounding fentanyl precursor controls. Pressure on silver intensified after Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari reiterated concerns over persistent inflation and signaled openness toward future interest rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. Kashkari emphasized that the Federal Reserve remains committed to bringing inflation under control, especially after the Iran conflict further aggravated already elevated price pressures. His comments reinforced market expectations that US interest rates may stay higher for longer, reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as precious metals. Despite the decline, the broader outlook for silver remains supported by structural supply tightness and improving investment demand. HSBC raised its silver price forecast to $75 per ounce for 2026 and $68 for 2027, citing support from a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger coin and bar demand. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons in March, nearly three times the long-term seasonal average, driven by aggressive retail buying and stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of export tax changes. India also raised import duties on silver to 15% from 6%, aimed at reducing overseas purchases and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 5.54% to settle at 8,355 while prices declined by 9,136 rupees. Silver is getting support at 285,600, below which prices may test 280,105 levels, while resistance is seen at 297,795, with a move above likely to test 304,495 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 280105-304495.

* Silver dropped as investors focused on meeting between US Trump and Jinping while assessing fresh economic data.

* Trump, Xi agrees Strait of Hormuz must stay open, White House says

* Fed’s Kashkari said that the U.S. labor market looks "a bit better" than it did ‌earlier this year

Crude oil

Crude oil settled marginally higher by 0.13% at 9724 amid persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing disruptions in Middle East oil flows. Diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict remained stalled, keeping the strategically important Strait of Hormuz effectively restricted. Although Iran reportedly allowed limited transit for some Chinese vessels, tanker traffic through the region remains heavily constrained, maintaining concerns over global supply security. The International Energy Agency stated that cumulative supply disruptions from Gulf producers have already exceeded 1 billion barrels, with over 14 million barrels per day currently shut in due to the conflict. Further support came after US crude inventories declined sharply by 4.306 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels for the week ended May 8, significantly above market expectations of a 2.1 million barrel draw. Stocks at the Cushing hub also fell by 1.702 million barrels, while gasoline inventories dropped by 4.084 million barrels, reflecting firm fuel demand. Refinery utilization improved with crude runs increasing by 370,000 barrels per day. However, distillate inventories posted a marginal build, limiting further upside in prices. Meanwhile, OPEC revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd earlier, citing demand risks linked to the Iran conflict and slowing economic conditions. However, the organization raised its 2027 demand growth outlook to 1.54 million bpd, expecting recovery in global consumption trends. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose by 3.58% to settle at 9605 while prices gained 13 rupees. Crude oil is getting support at 9558, below which prices could test 9393 levels. Resistance is seen at 9846, and a move above this level may push prices towards 9969.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9393-9969.

* Crude oil rose as diplomatic attempts to end the US-Iran conflict continued to stall.

* Global oil supply to plunge below demand this year on Iran war, IEA says

* Saudi Arabia informed OPEC that its oil production had dropped to its lowest level since 1990.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled higher by 0.8% at 277.4 despite weaker LNG export flows, as lower domestic production and improving demand forecasts supported market sentiment. Gas flows to major U.S. LNG export facilities declined from record levels due to seasonal maintenance at key plants, including Freeport LNG in Texas and Cameron LNG in Louisiana. Average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export terminals eased to 17.0 bcfd in May from a record 18.8 bcfd in April, partly due to reduced operations at Golden Pass and Freeport LNG facilities. Support for prices emerged after U.S. Lower 48 gas production continued to decline. LSEG reported average output slipped to 109.2 bcfd so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and well below the record 110.6 bcfd seen in December 2025. Daily output also dropped to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.1 bcfd due to lower production in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Several producers, including EQT, have reduced output amid weak spot prices while waiting for stronger market conditions. Weather forecasts indicated mostly near-normal temperatures through May 29, while LSEG projected average gas demand, including exports, to remain steady around 99.2 bcfd over the next two weeks. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities injected 85 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended May 8, broadly in line with market expectations and close to the five-year average build of 84 bcf. Total inventories rose to 2.290 trillion cubic feet, standing 6.5% above the seasonal average. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 1.54% to 20,189 while prices gained 2.2 rupees. Natural gas is getting support at 270.8, below which prices could test 264.1 levels. Resistance is seen at 281.6, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 285.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.1-285.7.

* Natural gas gained following an in-line storage injection and a continued decline in output.

* Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 29.

* Gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.2 bcfd so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April.

Copper

Copper settled lower by 0.96% at 1385.45 as profit-booking emerged after stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted the dollar and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market participants also remained cautious ahead of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, where discussions on trade, rare earth supplies, and artificial intelligence-related investments are expected to influence broader industrial metal sentiment. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to persistent concerns over global mine supply disruptions and tight inventories. Expectations of stronger Chinese demand continued to support the market, with refined copper imports in China projected to rise in the second quarter amid smelter maintenance and firm demand from power grid expansion, electrification, and AI-related infrastructure. Supply concerns also persisted after Freeport-McMoRan maintained that full production at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine would resume by end-2027, despite previously lowering its second-half 2026 recovery forecast to 65% from 85%. Further support came from disruptions in sulphuric acid shipments caused by the Middle East conflict, while China’s ban on sulphuric acid exports from May through December added to refining concerns. Chile’s copper production declined around 6% in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting continued pressure on global mine output. Meanwhile, inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 5.6%, reflecting tighter physical availability. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February and projected a surplus of 96,000 tons for 2026 due to slower demand growth and higher secondary production. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 1.23% to settle at 10,334 while prices fell by 13.45 rupees. Copper is getting support at 1378, below which prices could test 1370.4 levels, while resistance is seen at 1395.7, with further upside towards 1405.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1370.4-1405.8.

* Copper prices dropped on profit-taking after higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data strengthened the dollar.

* However, downside seen limited amid concerns over mine supply, tight inventories.

* Markets are closely watching the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 0.73% at 367.4 as fresh supply disruptions intensified concerns over already tight global availability. Market sentiment strengthened after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged key smelting infrastructure. The incident came shortly after Glencore-owned Kazzinc announced reduced operating rates at its zinc and lead plants in Kazakhstan after an explosion last week, further tightening supply expectations in the refined zinc market. Even before these disruptions, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had projected a 19,000-ton deficit in the refined zinc market for 2026. LME zinc inventories remained critically low at 110,875 tons, equivalent to less than three days of global consumption, highlighting the fragile supply environment. Declining treatment charges for zinc concentrate and falling concentrate inventories at Chinese ports, down 12,100 metric tons week-on-week according to SMM data, also reinforced concerns over raw material tightness. Supportive macroeconomic signals from China further aided sentiment after the country’s central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy and supporting domestic demand and technological investment. However, gains were capped after Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume in the second quarter. Additionally, Goldman Sachs maintained its outlook for a small global zinc surplus this year due to growing mine supply and concentrate destocking. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 1.09% to settle at 2175 while prices gained 2.65 rupees. Zinc is getting support at 363.1, below which prices could test 358.6 levels, while resistance is seen at 371.7, and a move above this level could push prices towards 375.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 358.6-375.8.

* Zinc gains after another incident at a smelter exacerbated supply fears.

* Nexa Resources said operations at its 344,400 ton per year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, had been temporarily suspended.

* Glencore-owned Kazzinc said its zinc and lead plants in eastern Kazakhstan were operating at a reduced capacity.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled marginally lower by 0.16% at 385.5 as a stronger U.S. dollar and persistent inflation concerns continued to pressure industrial metals. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and limiting upside momentum across base metals. However, downside remained restricted due to ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict, which continues to impact aluminium shipments and raw material flows from major Middle East producers. Additional support came from tightening warehouse inventories. LME data showed on-warrant aluminium stocks declined to 301,725 tons after fresh cancellations of around 30,000 tons in Malaysia, indicating improving physical demand. Analysts at CRU expect global aluminium prices to remain above $4,000 per metric ton between the third quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027 due to persistent supply concerns. Bank of America also advanced its $4,000 forecast timeline to the fourth quarter of 2026. Demand sentiment remained positive following strong manufacturing activity in China. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 6.9% year-on-year in March to 360,000 metric tons, while first-quarter imports increased 1.6%. China’s primary aluminium production also rose 2.7% year-on-year to 3.85 million metric tons in March. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium exports surged 15% in April as tight global supply conditions supported overseas demand. Further support came after Japanese aluminium port inventories fell 7.4% month-on-month, while premiums for April-June shipments rose to the highest level in 11 years. JP Morgan forecast a 1.9 million-ton aluminium deficit in 2026 due to disruptions in Middle East supply. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 9.83% to settle at 3185 while prices declined by 0.6 rupees. Aluminium is getting support at 382.8, below which prices could test 380.2 levels, while resistance is seen at 387.6, with further upside towards 389.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 380.2-389.8.

* Aluminium dropped as a firmer dollar and sticky U.S. inflation continued to weigh.

* However, downside seen limited as the Iran war disrupted supply from producers in the Middle East.

* LME data showed that on-warrant aluminium stocks in the LME-registered warehouses fell to 301,725 tons.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled higher by 0.38% at 15,966, supported by tight arrivals and strong demand for premium quality stocks in major producing regions. Arrivals across key mandis in Maharashtra and Telangana remained below normal despite the peak marketing season, creating an immediate supply squeeze. Quality concerns due to moisture-related rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas have significantly reduced the availability of “Double Polished” export-grade turmeric. In major trading centers such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back supplies in anticipation of prices moving above Rs18,000 per quintal. Premium “Salem Fali” varieties continued to command strong prices, trading near Rs20,000 per quintal in major markets. However, gains remained limited as arrivals increased across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli mandis, creating temporary oversupply conditions in local markets. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to raise liquidity ahead of Kharif sowing activities, while late-harvested high-moisture turmeric witnessed aggressive discounting due to quality concerns. Export logistics also remained under pressure due to continuing Middle East tensions, delaying some overseas buying interest. Additionally, profit-booking by traders and stockists who accumulated stocks at lower levels in March added selling pressure. Fundamentally, the market remains supported by lower carry-forward stocks estimated near 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from EU buyers and active procurement from Bangladesh for finger varieties have improved market sentiment. The Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of production to 1.140 million tons and concerns over a potentially below-normal 2026 monsoon continue to support long-term bullish expectations. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 8.56% to settle at 18,575 while prices gained 60 rupees. Turmeric is getting support at 15,840, below which prices may test 15,716 levels, while resistance is seen at 16,132, with a move above likely to test 16,300 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15716-16300.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of export-quality turmeric.

* In regions like Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back supplies.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15659.05 Rupees gained by 0.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled lower by 0.57% at 20,040 as rising arrivals from major producing regions increased near-term supply pressure in the domestic market. Fresh crop arrivals from Rajasthan accelerated after favorable weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities faster than expected, resulting in a sharp supply inflow instead of the previously anticipated staggered arrivals. Farmers are also actively liquidating stocks to generate liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, adding continuous selling pressure in physical markets. Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi remained elevated at nearly 28,500 bags, creating temporary oversupply conditions and weighing on prices. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to concerns regarding crop quality and lower overall production estimates. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan damaged standing crops during the harvest stage, raising fears over reduced availability of premium “A-grade” quality jeera. Unseasonal rains in North-West India also delayed drying and processing activities, tightening the availability of quality stocks in the short term. Market participants noted that carry-forward stocks of high-grade “Sortex” quality are significantly lower compared to last year, supporting premium pricing in spot markets. Fundamentally, Gujarat’s production is estimated to decline nearly 27% this season due to lower acreage and weaker yields, while blight disease in key growing regions has further impacted quality and output. Overall cumin production in India is estimated at around 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Expectations of stronger Chinese buying interest and lower production estimates from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are also supporting long-term sentiment. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 10.61% to settle at 9,696 while prices declined by 115 rupees. Jeera is getting support at 19,990, below which prices may test 19,920 levels, while resistance is seen at 20,150, with a move above likely to test 20,240 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19920-20240.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness feared earlier in the month.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks this week to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20016.1 Rupees dropped by -0.21 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views