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Gold

Gold prices edged higher by 0.07% to settle at 159,346, supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainty and continued expectations of strong central bank demand. Market sentiment remained focused on developments surrounding ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that discussions with Iran were still continuing. Investors also remained cautious ahead of key U.S. economic releases, including the ADP employment report and the non-farm payrolls data, which could provide further direction on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Fundamentally, gold continues to receive support from robust institutional and central bank buying. Goldman Sachs revised its estimate of central bank purchases to around 50 tonnes per month and expects average buying of nearly 60 tonnes per month through 2026, driven by reserve diversification amid geopolitical risks. Although JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, it continues to project prices approaching $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. Commerzbank also revised its year-end 2026 forecast lower to $4,800 per ounce but maintained a constructive long-term outlook. Physical demand trends remained mixed. In India, higher prices and import duties weighed on jewellery demand, with discounts widening to as much as $106 per ounce below official domestic prices. However, investment demand remained exceptionally strong, rising 52% year-on-year to 82 tonnes in the March quarter, surpassing jewellery demand for the first time on record. Globally, gold demand increased 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026, supported by strong investment flows and steady central bank purchases. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.04% to 8,218 contracts. Gold has immediate support at 158,830, followed by 158,310. On the upside, resistance is seen at 160,290, and a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward 161,230.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 158310-161230.

* Gold gained after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with ‌Iran was ongoing.

*  Iran is reviewing a proposed agreement with the United States to halt the war between the two countries.

*  Commerzbank lowers year – end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,800/oz from $5,000/oz

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 0.20% at 266,707, supported by strong industrial and investment demand despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Market sentiment remained influenced by geopolitical developments after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran were progressing rapidly, easing immediate concerns over an escalation in Middle East tensions. However, comments from Federal Reserve policymakers remained cautious, with officials highlighting the possibility of maintaining restrictive monetary policy if inflationary pressures persist, which limited gains in precious metals. Fundamentally, silver continues to receive strong support from robust demand in China and tightening supply conditions in India. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March, nearly three times the 10-year March average of 306 tonnes. The sharp increase was driven by strong retail investment demand as investors shifted toward silver amid elevated gold prices, along with aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry ahead of changes to export tax rebate policies. Strong domestic premiums in China encouraged global shipments into the country, further highlighting tight physical market conditions. In India, authorities have imposed stricter restrictions on silver imports by placing grains, powders, bars with 99.9% purity, and most semi-manufactured forms under the restricted category, requiring prior import authorization. The move is aimed at curbing record silver imports, which reached $12 billion during the 2025-26 fiscal year. The restrictions are expected to tighten domestic availability and support local premiums. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults declined marginally to 27,454 tonnes at the end of April, reflecting steady demand. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.94% to 10,544 contracts alongside the price increase. Immediate support is seen at 264,460, followed by 262,210. On the upside, resistance is placed at 270,185, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 273,660.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 262210-273660.

* Silver rises as Trump says US-Iran talks continue “at a rapid pace”

* Fed’s Schmid said that policymakers “may need to weigh how to make monetary policy more restrictive”

* India has tightened restrictions on silver imports by adding grain and powder forms to the list of restricted categories.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged 2.45% to settle at 8,950, supported by tightening global supply conditions, strong export demand, and persistent concerns over Middle East disruptions. Market sentiment remained bullish after the International Energy Agency warned that global oil inventories could fall to critical or historically low levels ahead of the peak summer demand season if current stock drawdowns continue. Supply concerns were further amplified by ongoing disruptions linked to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which has significantly impacted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route that normally handles nearly 20% of global oil and gas supplies. Additional support came from strong U.S. export demand, with crude exports rising to a record 5.6 million barrels per day in May as Asian and European refiners sought alternative supplies amid uncertainty in the Middle East. U.S. inventory data also reflected tightening market conditions. Crude oil stocks declined by 3.327 million barrels, while inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub dropped by 2.794 million barrels, marking the largest decline since August 2023. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.572 million barrels and distillate stocks declined by 2.107 million barrels, indicating firm fuel consumption and refinery demand. Refinery throughput increased by 652,000 barrels per day during the week. However, gains were partially capped by concerns over weaker demand from China, where refiners continue to reduce imports and draw from existing inventories amid sluggish fuel consumption. OPEC also lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million previously, although it raised its outlook for 2027 demand growth. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh buying interest with open interest rising 16.51% to 10,979 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 8,707, followed by 8,465. Resistance is placed at 9,084, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 9,219.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8465-9219.

* Crude oil gained as IEA sees possibility of critically low stockpiles ahead of peak summer demand

* US crude exports hit record high in May as Iran war tightens global oil supplies

* China is expected to tap deeper into its record crude oil inventories as refiners cut imports further

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices ended marginally lower by 0.10% at 302.4, pressured by weaker liquefied natural gas export demand and expectations of higher future production, although lower output and warmer weather forecasts limited downside losses. Daily gas flows to U.S. LNG export plants dropped to a four-month low, weighing on overall market sentiment. However, declining production levels in the Lower 48 states helped support prices, with average output easing to 108.8 billion cubic feet per day in June compared to 109.7 bcfd in May and the record high of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. The reduction in output has contributed to a gradual tightening in inventory surpluses. Gas inventories were estimated at around 5.9% above normal during the week ended May 29, narrowing from 6.2% above normal in the previous week. Weather forecasts also remained supportive, as meteorologists expect above-normal temperatures through June 17, increasing cooling demand from gas-fired power plants. Around 40% of U.S. electricity generation depends on natural gas, and stronger air-conditioning demand is expected to boost consumption. LSEG projected total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to rise from 98.2 bcfd this week to 101 bcfd next week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that utilities added 92 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the latest week, slightly below expectations of a 95 bcf build and below last year’s 104 bcf increase. Despite near-term supportive factors, the EIA maintained a longer-term bearish outlook, forecasting record U.S. gas production of 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115 bcfd in 2027, while domestic demand is expected to decline slightly next year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.14% to 19,543 contracts while prices declined marginally. Natural gas has immediate support at 296.7, followed by 291.1. Resistance is seen at 308, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 313.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 291.1-313.7.

* Natural gas dropped LNG export plant flows hit four-month low due to spring maintenance

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 108.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May

* Mild weather and output declines impact storage surplus, seen at 5.9% above normal

Copper

Copper prices advanced 0.99% to settle at 1,379.3, supported by tightening physical supplies outside the United States, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and improving demand prospects from China. Market sentiment remained firm as traders awaited the U.S. Department of Commerce’s recommendation on potential tariffs on refined copper imports by the end of the month. While the White House amended tariffs on certain copper-related imports, uncertainty surrounding refined copper continues to drive strong demand into U.S. warehouses. The premium of COMEX copper over LME copper widened further, encouraging shipments into the United States, while the narrowing discount of LME cash copper against three-month contracts signaled tightening near-term supply conditions. Additional support came from China, where authorities instructed banks to increase lending activity, reinforcing expectations of economic stimulus and stronger industrial demand. Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined by 3.8% from the previous week, reflecting healthy consumption. Demand has also been supported by strong investment in power infrastructure, with China’s power grid spending rising 37% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026. Unwrought copper imports increased 3.2% year-on-year in April to a seven-month high of 452,000 metric tons despite record domestic refined copper production. On the supply side, concerns persist after sulfur and sulfuric acid shortages in Chile forced refiners to reduce operating rates. Chilean copper production fell around 6% during the first quarter, while production challenges at major mines including Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula continue to limit supply growth. Although the International Copper Study Group expects the global refined copper market to remain in surplus during 2026 and 2027, several banks including Goldman Sachs and Citi have raised their copper price forecasts due to tighter-than-expected supply conditions and resilient demand. Technically, copper remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.7% to 17,602 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 1,367.2, followed by 1,355.2. Resistance is placed at 1,388, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 1,396.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1355.2-1396.8.

* Copper rose as tariff uncertainty and tightening supply outside the United States supported the market.

* Investors are awaiting a recommendation from U.S. by the end of the month on possible tariffs on imports of refined copper.

* COMEX copper's premium over LME price widened, encouraging shipments to U.S. warehouses.

Zinc

Zinc prices rallied 1.60% to settle at 373.6, supported by fresh supply concerns following disruptions at major smelting operations and continued low inventory levels. Market sentiment turned bullish after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-ton-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, the largest zinc smelter in Latin America, following a fire that damaged key infrastructure. The disruption came shortly after Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced operating rates at its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan following an explosion, further tightening supply expectations. The supply disruptions have added to an already constrained market. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group had previously projected a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tons for 2026, and the recent outages have reinforced concerns about near-term availability. LME zinc inventories remain low at 111,250 tons, representing less than three days of global consumption. Additional support also stems from ongoing mine closures and project delays that continue to restrict concentrate availability across the market. On the demand side, sentiment was aided by China’s commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy and strengthening support for domestic demand and technological development. However, gains were partially capped by expectations of improving supply later in the year. Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine will resume during the second quarter, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% year-on-year during the first half of fiscal 2026/27. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 32,700 tons in March from 58,700 tons in February, reflecting tighter market conditions despite an overall surplus during the first quarter. Technically, zinc remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 12.74% to 2,912 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 369.0, followed by 364.4. Resistance is placed at 376.9, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward 380.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 364.4-380.2.

* Zinc gains supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* ILZSG had expected there to be a 19,000-ton deficit in the refined zinc market this year.

* Zinc stocks on the LME are equivalent to less than three days of global consumption.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained 0.66% to settle at 394.75, supported by persistent supply disruptions and tightening global inventories. Market sentiment remained firm as traders continued to assess the impact of production challenges across key aluminium-producing regions. LME aluminium inventories declined to 335,450 tons, the lowest level in nearly four years, highlighting the increasingly tight supply environment. Further evidence of market tightness was reflected in the cash LME aluminium contract trading at a premium of $116.50 per ton over the three-month contract, the highest premium recorded in at least 17 years. Supply concerns remained elevated as Emirates Global Aluminium’s flagship smelter is expected to require up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain’s ALBA smelter remain partially suspended. Additional pressure on raw material availability emerged from Guinea’s stricter controls on bauxite exports. At the same time, primary aluminium production in the Gulf region fell sharply by 35% year-on-year to 330,000 metric tons in April, reflecting the ongoing impact of geopolitical disruptions on regional smelting operations. On the demand side, supportive economic data from China boosted sentiment. Industrial profits expanded at the fastest pace since November 2023, while imports of unwrought aluminium and products increased 6.9% year-on-year in March. China’s aluminium production also remained robust, rising 3.1% to 3.87 million metric tons in April, supported by healthy profit margins. Export activity remained strong, with April aluminium exports jumping 15% from a year earlier, reaching the highest monthly level in at least one year. Meanwhile, inventories at major Japanese ports declined 10.8% from the previous month, indicating healthy regional demand. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 0.66% to 4,392 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 393.0, followed by 391.2. Resistance is located at 396.6, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 398.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 391.2-398.4.

* Aluminium prices rallied as the market continued to grapple with supply disruptions.

* LME inventories dwindled to 335,450 tons, the lowest in almost four years.

* EGA’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain's ALBA remain partially suspended.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined sharply by 3.20% to settle at 15,618, pressured by increased market arrivals and aggressive stock liquidation by farmers. Daily arrivals have accelerated across key producing regions as growers sell inventories to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities. The arrival of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric has further weighed on prices, with average-quality lots witnessing significant discounting. Additional pressure emerged from profit-booking by traders and stockists who accumulated inventories at lower levels earlier in the season. Lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also complicated export logistics, prompting some overseas buyers to delay fresh purchases. Despite the recent decline, several supportive factors continue to limit downside pressure. Arrivals in major turmeric markets across Maharashtra and Telangana remain below normal for the peak marketing season, creating pockets of supply tightness. Quality concerns due to moisture-related rhizome rot have reduced the availability of premium export-grade turmeric, particularly the highly demanded Double Polished varieties. In key markets such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are reportedly holding back quality stocks in anticipation of higher prices. Premium Salem Fali turmeric continues to command prices of up to ?20,000 per quintal in major trading centers. Fundamentally, the market remains supported by lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to more than 20 lakh bags last year. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and continued procurement interest from Bangladesh have also provided underlying support. The Union Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of production estimates to 1.140 million tons has reinforced supply concerns, while emerging worries about a below-normal 2026 monsoon are beginning to build a longer-term weather risk premium. Export performance remained mixed, with March shipments declining 16.80% year-on-year to 12,559.72 tonnes, although exports improved 10.14% from February levels. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.63% to 19,770 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 15,370, followed by 15,122. Resistance is placed at 15,986, and a move above this level could extend gains toward 16,354.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15122-16354.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut" in local mandis.

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15778.35 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 0.68% to settle at 18,920, weighed down by increased fresh crop arrivals and steady selling by farmers across major producing regions. Improved weather conditions in North-West India enabled farmers to complete harvesting activities faster than expected, resulting in a surge of arrivals rather than the gradual flow anticipated earlier. Farmers have also been actively liquidating stocks to raise funds for the upcoming Kharif sowing season, adding persistent selling pressure to the market. Daily arrivals at the benchmark Unjha mandi have stabilized at around 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply surplus and limiting upward price movement. Despite the recent weakness, downside pressure remained limited due to concerns over crop quality and lower overall production. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan reportedly damaged standing crops during the harvesting stage, raising concerns about the availability of premium-grade produce. Unseasonal rainfall also delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily affecting the flow of market-ready supplies. Market participants continue to report lower availability of high-quality Sortex-grade carryover stocks compared to last year, supporting premiums for superior quality material. Fundamentally, production estimates remain lower than last season. Industry sources project total cumin production at around 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat production is estimated at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan production is expected at 48–50 lakh bags. Additional support stems from reduced output expectations in China due to adverse weather conditions, with production estimates revised down to 70,000–80,000 tonnes. Market sentiment also remains supported by expectations of stronger Chinese demand as importers replenish inventories. Export performance remained weak on an annual basis, with March shipments declining 15.54% year-on-year to 14,642.73 tonnes. However, exports improved 17.64% from February levels, indicating some recovery in overseas demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.62% to 9,156 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 18,830, followed by 18,750. Resistance is placed at 19,010, and a move above this level could push prices toward 19,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18750-19110.

* Jeera dropped as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased, effectively neutralizing the supply tightness.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected, resulting in a "supply spike”.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19599.15 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views