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Gold

Gold settled 0.93% higher at Rs155,940, supported by a softer US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September. An unexpected decline in US nonfarm payrolls in July, alongside mild consumer inflation, weakened the case for tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing a 33% probability of a September rate hike versus 47% a month earlier. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes for further clues on the policy trajectory. Geopolitical uncertainty also remained supportive, as US envoys met Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators in Cairo to advance Gaza peace efforts while Israeli airstrikes continued. Physical demand, however, remained subdued in key Asian markets. Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $62 per ounce, the highest in more than two months, as elevated bullion prices weighed on consumption. India’s net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in the June quarter, while overall gold demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Higher import tariffs and rising unofficial inflows have further pressured organised trade. Globally, second-quarter gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, supported by stronger central-bank purchases of 289 tonnes, five times the revised first-quarter level of 57 tonnes, which offset 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes valued at $1.2 trillion. Technically, gold witnessed fresh buying as open interest rose 2.67% to 10,060 contracts while prices gained Rs1,434. The market is currently supported at Rs154,930, with a break below this level potentially opening downside towards Rs153,915. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs156,560, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs157,175.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 153915-157175.

* Gold gains supported by a softer dollar and recent data that curbed expectations of a U.S. interest rate hike next month.

* Markets are pricing in a 33% chance of a September rate hike, down from 47% a month ago, CME's FedWatch Tool showed.

* The Fed's July meeting minutes, due on Wednesday, will be scrutinized for further clues on monetary policy outlook.

Silver

Silver settled 0.9% higher at Rs238,048, supported by weaker US economic data that reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. US retail sales declined 0.6% month-on-month in July, significantly missing expectations of a 0.1% increase, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in early August from 55.2 in July. Initial unemployment claims rose by 9,000 to 209,000, while softer producer and consumer inflation further reduced the urgency for tighter monetary policy. Investors now await the FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for additional guidance on the interest-rate outlook. Geopolitical tensions remained elevated following fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon and proposed US sanctions against Iran, although continued crude movement through the Strait of Hormuz limited immediate inflationary concerns. In physical markets, Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores jumped 62.5% year-on-year to 219,000 tonnes in June, indicating continued industrial demand. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at $53.1 billion. Fundamentally, the silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The global deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand forecast to decline 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is expected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand could rise 18%. Global silver supply is also projected to decline 2%, reinforcing the longer-term supply-demand imbalance. Technically, silver is under short covering as open interest declined 0.5% to 10,699 contracts while prices gained Rs2,124. Support is placed at Rs236,220, and a break below this level could expose Rs234,395. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs239,435, while a sustained move above this level could lead to Rs240,825.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 234395-240825.

* Silver gained as subdued US economic data reduced expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

* Data pointed to tame US inflation, while consumer sentiment and retail sales weakened.

* Investors are now awaiting the FOMC’s latest meeting minutes and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole symposium for further guidance.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 2.45% higher at Rs8,063 as investors assessed escalating geopolitical risks surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the possibility of supply disruptions. Renewed fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over transportation and regional supply security, while stalled Washington-Tehran negotiations reduced hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply, with only five commodity vessels transiting on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 during the previous weekend. However, the absence of major physical supply outages limited further upside. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision, while the International Energy Agency expects global consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day due to restricted fuel supplies and higher prices linked to the conflict. US crude inventories increased sharply by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels for the week ended August 7, compared with expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw, while Cushing stocks rose 1.6 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased 26,000 barrels per day, although utilization declined 0.3 percentage points. Gasoline inventories declined 1 million barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell marginally to 107.1 million barrels. Net US crude imports increased by 1.77 million barrels per day, reinforcing the bearish impact of rising crude stocks. Despite weakening demand projections and higher inventories, geopolitical risk remains the primary bullish driver for prices. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying as open interest surged 85.28% to 11,113 contracts while prices gained Rs193. The market is supported at Rs7,870, with a break below this level potentially opening downside towards Rs7,677. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,185, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs8,307.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7677-8307.

* Crude oil gains as investors assessed the uncertain outlook for the US-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions.

* Renewed fighting in Lebanon and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz added to concerns that tensions could persist.

* Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran had not decided whether to resume talks with the US.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.2% lower at Rs257.9 as robust production, comfortable inventories and softer LNG export flows outweighed support from hotter-than-normal weather forecasts. US energy firms injected 36 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended August 7, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf and the five-year average build of 33 bcf. Total inventories rose to 3.153 trillion cubic feet, remaining 0.8% below year-ago levels but 6.7% above the five-year average, highlighting a well-supplied market. Lower 48 production averaged a record 111.3 bcfd in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, while inventories have remained above their five-year average since March. Gas flows to the nine major LNG export facilities eased to 17.1 bcfd in August from 17.2 bcfd in July, leaving greater volumes available for domestic consumption and adding pressure to prices. However, forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather through the end of August could provide some demand support. EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are forecast to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the August forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Speculators reduced net short positions by 18,848 contracts to 70,241 contracts, indicating some improvement in market sentiment despite bearish fundamentals. Technically, natural gas is under fresh selling as open interest increased 7.92% to 44,558 contracts while prices declined Rs5.8. Support is placed at Rs253.5, and a break below this level could expose Rs249.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs261.8, while a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs265.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 249.2-265.8.

* Natural gas prices fell weighed down by robust production and comfortable inventory levels.

* An EIA report showed energy firms injected 36 bcf of gas into storage, larger than market expectations of a 31 bcf build.

* Natural gas speculators on the four major NYMEX and ICE markets reduced their net short positions by 18,848 contracts.

Copper

Copper settled 0.36% higher at Rs1,383.25, supported by growing signs of tightening global supply, although concerns over weaker Chinese demand and potential US import tariffs limited gains. China’s refined copper output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month in August as persistent shortages of copper concentrate and smelter feedstocks reduce operating rates. Tighter tax-invoice regulations have also restricted VAT-compliant recycled copper availability, adding pressure on raw material supplies. In Chile, Antofagasta cut its 2026 copper production forecast to 625,000–655,000 tonnes from 650,000–700,000 tonnes following a shutdown at Los Pelambres caused by extreme rainfall. Peru’s copper production declined nearly 5% year-on-year in June to 218,232 tonnes. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the US to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes previously, highlighting increasing supply risks. However, the global refined copper market recorded an 18,000-tonne surplus in May after a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the January-May surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. China’s copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Copper ore and concentrate imports also declined 7.1% year-on-year in July. China’s refined copper output nevertheless increased 2.5% year-on-year to nearly 1.334 million tonnes, reaching a record high, while copper product output fell 2.3% to 2.16 million tonnes, signaling weaker downstream activity. The Yangshan copper premium declined to $96 per tonne from $115, further indicating subdued Chinese buying interest at elevated prices. Technically, copper is under short covering as open interest declined 2.47% to 9,320 contracts while prices gained Rs4.95. Support is placed at Rs1,375.20, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,367.10. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs1,396.20, while a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs1,409.10.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1367.1-1409.1.

* Copper prices rose amid further signs of tightening global supply.

* China’s refined copper output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month in August.

* Peru's copper production fell nearly 5% year-over-year in June, coming down to 218,232 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.31% higher at Rs400.85, supported by tightening supply, production disruptions and declining LME inventories, although elevated prices continued to restrain demand in top consumer China. Heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China threaten mining and smelting operations, with production adjustments at a Southwest China mine expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could cut refined output by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Global supply concerns have also increased after Glencore reported first-half zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, while Boliden’s concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, representing 48% of its annual guidance. LME zinc inventories declined to 95,000 tonnes, the lowest level since December, while high canceled warrants and falling on-warrant stocks increased the risk of a supply squeeze. The cash LME contract remained around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward, indicating persistent backwardation and near-term tightness. However, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories increased 2.1%, while China’s refined zinc output rose 10% year-on-year to 641,000 tonnes in May, indicating strong smelter operations. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes versus 44,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s central bank also maintained an appropriately loose monetary policy stance to support economic growth and financial stability. Technically, zinc is under short covering as open interest declined 7.98% to 2,756 contracts while prices gained Rs1.25. Support is placed at Rs399.20, and a break below this level could expose Rs397.60. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs402.70, while a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs404.60.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 397.6-404.6.

* Zinc gains amid tightening supply and growing concerns over production disruptions in China.

* Global supply is also tightening, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production.

* Zinc concentrate inventories at main ports in China totaled 244,000 mt in physical content, down 36,000 mt WoW

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.69% higher at Rs350.95, supported by tightening overseas availability as LME inventories declined to their lowest level since 1990, while softer US employment data reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Supply concerns intensified after Norsk Hydro reduced alumina production at its Alunorte plant in Brazil to 50% of capacity due to lower natural gas availability, with the facility having annual capacity of 6.3 million tonnes. Emirates Global Aluminium also reported that its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at only 18% of capacity and is expected to return to previous production levels in early 2027. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, while Gulf production fell by one-third. Production outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year in July due mainly to reduced operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters. Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. However, supply prospects could improve as Australia’s largest aluminium smelter secured a $1.8 billion government bailout, while European physical premiums eased to $487 per tonne from $621 in May, suggesting some improvement in Gulf supply concerns. China’s unwrought aluminium and semi-finished exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes in July, although they declined 9.6% month-on-month. January-July exports reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year, while semi-finished product exports increased 15% in the first half of 2026. Technically, aluminium is under fresh buying as open interest increased 8.24% to 3,968 contracts while prices gained Rs2.40. Support is placed at Rs349.30, and a break below this level could expose Rs347.40. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs353.40, while a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs355.60.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 347.4-355.6.

* Aluminium gains as LME aluminum inventories kept drawing down to an all time low, tightening overseas supply.

* China aluminium production up 3.8 % to 3.9 mln metric tons in July – stats bureau

* EGA said its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% of capacity and is expected to return to prior output levels in early 2027.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 1.6% higher at Rs21,014, supported by tightening supply, declining carryforward stocks and concerns over El Nino affecting the newly sown crop. Deficient rainfall during early crop development raised yield concerns, while lower-than-expected sowing expansion in some key regions added to expectations of tighter availability. Carryforward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the supply buffer. However, the upside remained capped as monsoon activity improved across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, while reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh improved water availability for crop development. Re-sowing has also been completed in parts of North Karnataka following improved rainfall, while recent showers across major growing regions are expected to accelerate sowing. Turmeric acreage is estimated to rise 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, potentially improving production prospects if rainfall remains favorable. Farmers are also likely to expand acreage as prices remain near multi-year highs, although farmer selling during the peak harvest window has created intermittent pressure. European Union restrictions on Maximum Residue Limits have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while increasing demand for IPM-certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Export demand remains strong, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay recorded strong growth in shipments, supporting the broader demand outlook. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs20,102.40, down 0.04%. Technically, turmeric is under fresh buying as open interest increased 6.71% to 32,520 contracts while prices gained Rs330. Support is placed at Rs20,792, and a break below this level could expose Rs20,570. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs21,296, while a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs21,578.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20570-21578.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20102.4 Rupees dropped by -0.04 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.34% lower at Rs20,655 as aggressive farmer selling ahead of Kharif sowing increased near-term availability and pressured prices. Favorable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating arrivals, while rising NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement. Large industrial spice grinders remained cautious on bulk purchases, preferring to wait for lower prices, while domestic processors and stockists continued with hand-to-mouth buying. However, downside remained limited by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, with arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan beginning to taper. Blight outbreaks in key Gujarat pockets have also affected crop quality and harvestable quantities. Current estimates place India’s cumin production at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Overseas production also faces uncertainty, with China’s crop estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. Export demand remains weak overall, with India’s jeera exports falling 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports declined 25% to 44,144 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Oman and Argentina recorded strong growth, providing selective support. European and North American buyers have also returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, although Middle East geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on logistics and demand. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs20,515.90, down 0.15%. Technically, jeera is under fresh selling as open interest increased 18.83% to 8,520 contracts while prices declined Rs70. Support is placed at Rs20,580, and a break below this level could expose Rs20,490. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs20,810, while a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs20,950.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20490-20950.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Pressure seen amid a sharp decline in Chinese demand and weak buying from West Asian countries.

* India still has adequate stocks from the previous season, keeping market supplies comfortable.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20515.9 Rupees dropped by -0.15 percent.