MCX Crude oil September is expected to find support near Rs 7800 and rise towards Rs 8300 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to find support near $4340 and rise towards $4480 level as weaker than expected jobs data and subdued inflation prints has relieved near term pressure on US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates. Further, investors are pricing in about a 35% chance of a rate hike in September, compared to 55% in previous week. Additionally, prices will find support from renewed investor demand and central bank buying, notably from China. Meanwhile, higher global treasury yields could limit its upside. Further, investors will keep an eye on minutes of Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday for further clarity.
• MCX Gold October is expected to find support near Rs153,500 and rise towards Rs157,500 level.
• MCX Silver September is expected to move in a wide range between Rs 232,000 and Rs 240,000 level. Only a move above Rs 240,000, it would rise towards Rs 243,000 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to find support and trade higher amid soaring price spreads highlighting an increasingly acute squeeze in nearterm supply. Further, current supply crunch is being fueled by a surge in shipments to US in anticipation of a potential decision on import tariffs. This has led stockpiles across the LME’s global warehousing network to shrink by almost half since mid-May. Additionally, concerns over tightening supply continued to underpin prices amid expectations for constrained global mine output. LME stockpiles fell for a 43rd straight day on Friday, the longest run of declines since 2014.
• MCX Copper August is expected to hold support near Rs 1370 level and rise towards Rs 1390 level. Only a move above Rs 1390 level, it will rise towards Rs 1400 level.
• MCX Aluminum August is expected to find support near Rs 346 level and rise towards Rs 355 amid supply concern. MCX Zinc August is likely to find support near Rs 395 level and rise towards Rs 405- Rs 406 level.
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Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude oil expected to find support near $82 level and rise towards $87 on lack of any agreement between U.S and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Further, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that US is playing the long game with Iran, implying that US has no plans for de-escalation of the conflict and potentially limiting crude supplies from the Middle East. Meanwhile, sharp upside will be limited on signs that larger-than-expected volumes of crude oil are moving out of the Persian Gulf despite hostilities between the US and Iran.
• MCX Crude oil September is expected to find support near Rs 7800 and rise towards Rs 8300 level.
• MCX Natural gas August is expected to face resistance near Rs 264 level and dip towards Rs 250 level.
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