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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 1.51% to settle at Rs152,443, weighed down by a broad-based market sell-off and increasing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year. Sentiment also weakened after signs of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as Iran and Israel indicated a halt in hostilities following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and reducing safe-haven demand for gold. Investor attention has now shifted to key U.S. inflation indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which are expected to provide further direction on monetary policy. Following stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, markets are currently pricing in a significant probability of a Fed rate hike by December. Comments from Federal Reserve officials also highlighted concerns over persistent inflation, reinforcing expectations that policy could remain restrictive. On the demand front, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak for a 19th consecutive month, with reserves rising to 74.96 million fine troy ounces in May. However, physical gold demand remained subdued across major Asian markets. Indian buyers largely stayed on the sidelines due to volatile prices, while Chinese premiums eased slightly. India's physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first monthly outflow in a year as investors booked profits, while global gold ETFs witnessed net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 4.53% to 8,980 lots, indicating the emergence of new short positions. Gold has immediate support at Rs151,120, with further downside potential towards Rs149,795. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs154,610, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs156,775.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149795-156775.

*  Gold slips on rate-hike fears ahead of U.S. inflation data

*  Investors evaluated Middle East peace prospects ahead of key inflation data.

*  Fed’s Hammack said that new jobs numbers show the labour market was roughly in balance and near full employment

Silver

Silver prices witnessed a sharp decline of 3.19%, settling at Rs238,528 as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data expected this week. Market participants anticipate U.S. inflation to rise to 4.2% in May, the highest level in nearly three years, largely driven by elevated energy prices. Meanwhile, optimism surrounding a possible ceasefire in the Middle East reduced safe-haven demand after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that negotiations were progressing toward an immediate halt in hostilities. Economic data from the United States remained supportive of a stronger dollar. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April, surpassing expectations, while ADP employment figures showed private employers added an average of 29,000 jobs per week during the four weeks ending May 23. Although job growth eased for a third consecutive week, stronger overall labor market conditions and recent payroll data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by year-end. Markets currently assign around a 70% probability of a December rate hike, with investors closely monitoring upcoming CPI and PPI releases for further policy guidance. Fundamentally, China continued to exhibit exceptionally strong silver demand. March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes, nearly three times the historical average, driven by retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry. In contrast, India imposed restrictions on imports of silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products, a move aimed at reducing import volumes and easing pressure on the rupee. The restrictions could tighten domestic supplies and increase local premiums while potentially reducing global demand. Additionally, silver holdings in London vaults rose by 0.6% during May to 27,611 tonnes. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 1.09% to 11,910 lots, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs233,710, with further downside potential towards Rs228,895. Resistance is placed at Rs246,130, and a sustained move above this level could open the door for a recovery towards Rs253,735.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228895-253735.

* Silver weakens on expectations of higher US inflation

* President Donald Trump also said both sides were seeking an immediate ceasefire and that final negotiations were moving forward.

* Investors are also awaiting US CPI and PPI data later this week for fresh signals on the Fed’s policy outlook.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 3.28% to settle at Rs8,421 as concerns over supply disruptions eased following indications of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Both nations confirmed a halt in attacks after diplomatic efforts led by U.S. President Donald Trump, although both sides warned that hostilities could resume if tensions escalate again. The easing of geopolitical risk reduced immediate concerns over energy supplies and triggered profit-booking across oil markets. Despite the ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively restricted under a dual blockade by the United States and Iran, continuing to disrupt shipments of crude oil, refined fuels, and natural gas. However, weak demand indicators from China offset supply concerns. China's crude oil imports fell 29% year-on-year in May to 7.79 million barrels per day, marking the lowest level since February 2018 and highlighting slower demand from the world's largest crude importer. Supporting the market, U.S. inventory data showed a substantial drawdown in crude stockpiles. Commercial crude inventories declined by 7.97 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations. Stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also fell, indicating healthy domestic demand. However, gasoline and distillate inventories increased, while refinery activity softened, reflecting mixed signals from the energy sector. Meanwhile, OPEC revised lower its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, citing the economic impact of the Iran conflict and slower consumption trends. The organization now expects global demand to increase by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its previous estimate of 1.38 million barrels per day, while maintaining a more optimistic outlook for 2027. Technically, crude oil remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest surged by 20.19% to 11,725 lots, indicating aggressive short buildup. Immediate support is seen at Rs8,195, with further downside potential towards Rs7,970. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,662, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs8,904.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7970-8904.

* Crude oil prices fell after Iran and ‌Israel said they had halted attacks on each other.

* President Donald Trump urged both sides to deescalate and said talks with Tehran are continuing.

* China's oil imports extend decline in May to hit 8 – year low

Natural gas

Natural gas prices edged higher by 0.27% to settle at Rs301.6, supported by forecasts for hotter-than-expected weather across the United States over the next two weeks and a gradual decline in production levels. Expectations of above-normal temperatures through late June are likely to increase electricity demand for air conditioning, thereby boosting natural gas consumption by power utilities. According to data from LSEG, average natural gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has declined to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, compared with 109.7 bcfd in May. The recent slowdown in production has helped reduce the inventory surplus, with storage levels estimated at around 5% above normal, down from approximately 6% in the previous week. Demand prospects have also improved, with total U.S. gas consumption, including exports, expected to increase from 102.6 bcfd this week to 103.6 bcfd next week. Storage data provided additional support to prices. U.S. utilities injected 95 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas into storage during the week ended May 29, below market expectations of a 101 Bcf increase. Total inventories stood at 2.578 trillion cubic feet, slightly below year-ago levels but still comfortably above the five-year average, indicating adequate supply availability. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects natural gas production to reach record levels over the coming years. Dry gas output is expected to rise from 107.7 bcfd in 2025 to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and further to 115.0 bcfd in 2027. While domestic consumption is forecast to ease slightly in 2026, demand is expected to recover strongly in 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest as open interest increased by 5.54% to 18,715 lots while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs297.3, with further support at Rs293.1. On the upside, resistance is likely at Rs306.2, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs310.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 293.1-310.9.

* Natural gas edged up with forecasts for hotter weather and a slow decline in output in recent days.

* Hotter weather and output decline expected to boost mid-June gas demand

* Waha Hub prices rise but remain negative for record 86 days amid higher demand

Copper

Copper prices declined by 0.60% to settle at Rs1,327.65, primarily due to profit booking as investors turned cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Despite the decline, underlying market fundamentals remained supportive, with tightening visible inventories outside the United States and ongoing concerns over global mine supply. Earlier support also came from easing geopolitical tensions after Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks, improving overall market sentiment. A significant premium of COMEX copper over the LME benchmark continued to attract material into U.S. warehouses, while inventories in LME-registered warehouses declined to 228,650 tonnes, the lowest level since February. In China, warehouse stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4% to 169,512 tonnes, the lowest level since December, highlighting strong domestic consumption. Although China's unwrought copper imports for the first five months of 2026 declined 7% year-on-year, April imports reached a seven-month high, supported by robust investment in power infrastructure. Power grid spending in China increased 37% during the first quarter, reinforcing demand prospects for the industrial metal. On the supply side, concerns persist as production growth from key mining regions remains constrained. Copper output in Chile declined during the first quarter, while recovery issues at major mines such as Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula continue to limit supply growth. The International Copper Study Group forecasts a modest global refined copper surplus in 2026, though slower mine production growth and geopolitical uncertainties remain key risks. Meanwhile, major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs and Citi have raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing tighter market balances and stronger demand expectations. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.83% to 15,821 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,317.6, with further downside potential towards Rs1,307.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,343.1, and a sustained move above this level could trigger gains towards Rs1,358.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1307.6-1358.6.

* Copper dropped on profit booking as investors shifted focus to the upcoming US inflation report.

* For the first five months of 2026, China imported 2.01 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, down 7% from a year earlier.

* The Yangshan copper premium, stood at $64 a ton, its lowest since April 28.

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher by 0.08% to settle at Rs365.5, supported by ongoing supply concerns and disruptions at key global production facilities. Market sentiment improved after Goldman Sachs highlighted the possibility that Boliden’s Garpenberg mine in Sweden could operate at structurally lower production levels for an extended period following a seismic event earlier this year. Additional support came from supply interruptions at major zinc processing facilities, tightening near-term availability in the refined market. Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-tonne-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged critical infrastructure. The disruption came shortly after Glencore-owned Kazzinc reported reduced operations at its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan following an explosion. These incidents have reinforced concerns over global zinc supply, particularly as the International Lead and Zinc Study Group had already projected a refined zinc market deficit of 19,000 tonnes this year. However, gains remained limited due to a stronger U.S. dollar following robust U.S. economic data. Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and private sector employment figures increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year, reducing the appeal of industrial metals. Meanwhile, zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose modestly, while Boliden indicated that production at the Garpenberg mine is expected to resume during the second quarter, helping ease some supply concerns. Fundamentally, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tonnes in March from 58,700 tonnes in February, indicating improving market balance. Goldman Sachs expects a small surplus in 2026 but anticipates tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows while demand continues to expand at a steady pace. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 3.66% to 2,603 lots alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs362.7, with further support at Rs359.7. Resistance is placed at Rs369.7, and a sustained move above this level could open the path towards Rs373.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 359.7-373.7.

* Zinc rose after Goldman Sachs said Boliden's Garpenberg mine could "structurally reset to a lower production level for longer."

* Nexa Resources said operations at its 344,400 ton per year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru, had been temporarily suspended.

* China's central bank will continue to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, and strengthen financial support for expanding domestic demand.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined by 2.05% to settle at Rs377.4, pressured by easing geopolitical tensions after Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks, reducing concerns over immediate supply disruptions. However, market participants remained cautious as Tehran continued to restrict most shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global commodity trade. The easing of risk premiums prompted profit booking across the metals complex, weighing on aluminium prices. Despite the decline, underlying supply-side concerns continue to provide medium-term support. Gulf aluminium producers are actively pursuing overseas acquisitions to diversify supply chains and reduce exposure to regional geopolitical risks. Production disruptions remain significant, with Emirates Global Aluminium's flagship smelter expected to require up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain's ALBA smelter remain partially suspended. Additionally, Guinea's tighter controls on bauxite exports have raised concerns about raw material availability for global aluminium producers. China continued to play a key role in the market, with aluminium exports remaining strong. Unwrought aluminium and product exports increased 5.68% year-on-year in May to 632,000 metric tons, while shipments during the first five months of 2026 rose 10.4% to 2.69 million tons. Domestic production also remained robust, with China's aluminium output rising 3.1% in April to 3.87 million metric tons, supported by favorable profit margins. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports declined by 10.8%, reflecting healthy regional demand conditions. Globally, primary aluminium production showed mixed trends. Output in the Gulf region fell sharply due to operational disruptions, while Chinese production continued to expand. The International Aluminium Institute reported a 2.1% decline in global primary aluminium output during April compared to the previous year. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 10.19% to 3,402 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs373.0, with further downside potential towards Rs368.6. Resistance is placed at Rs384.6, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs391.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 368.6-391.8.

* Aluminium fell pressured by Iran's and Israel's agreement to halt attacks.

* China's May unwrought aluminium and product exports climb 5.68% m/m

* EGA’s flagship smelter is expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while operations at Bahrain's ALBA remain partially suspended.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 1.13% to settle at Rs15,632, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals in key producing markets across Maharashtra and Telangana. Tight availability of quality produce has created near-term supply concerns, particularly for export-grade material. Moisture-related issues, including rhizome rot in low-lying cultivation areas, have reduced the supply of premium "Double Polished" turmeric, while high-grade "Salem Fali" varieties continue to command substantial premiums in major trading centers. Market sentiment remained firm as farmers and stockists in key markets such as Sangli and Nizamabad continued to hold back stocks in anticipation of higher prices. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags a year ago, significantly tightening the availability buffer. Additional support came from increasing demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers and steady procurement inquiries from Bangladesh, particularly for finger-variety turmeric sourced from Andhra Pradesh. However, gains were capped by rising arrivals of late-harvested turmeric. Farmers have accelerated stock liquidation to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, resulting in temporary supply pressure in local mandis. Increased arrivals of high-moisture produce have also led to discounts on average-quality lots. Export performance remained mixed, with March shipments declining 16.8% year-on-year to 12,559.72 tonnes, although exports improved by 10.14% compared to February, indicating a gradual recovery in overseas demand. Fundamentally, the market continues to receive support from the Union Agriculture Ministry’s downward revision of turmeric production estimates to 1.140 million tonnes. Concerns over a potentially below-normal monsoon and rising temperatures in South India are also contributing to a longer-term weather risk premium. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 9.46% to 15,690 lots while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs15,472, followed by Rs15,312. Resistance is placed at Rs15,726, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs15,820.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15312-15820.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals have remained lower than normal for this peak season, creating an immediate supply squeeze.

* Ongoing quality issues due to moisture in low-lying fields have reduced the availability of "Double Polished" export-quality turmeric.

* However, farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15526.1 Rupees gained by 0.15 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher by 0.34% to settle at Rs19,185, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality seeds and renewed buying interest from international markets. Demand from European and North American buyers has improved, particularly for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, while domestic industrial processors have also started rebuilding inventories at current price levels. Concerns over quality losses due to recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan further supported sentiment, as adverse weather affected standing crops during the harvest period and raised concerns over reduced availability of A-grade produce. Additional support came from reports that unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily restricting the flow of quality supplies into the market. Although carry-forward stocks remain available, the proportion of premium Sortex-grade material is reportedly lower than last year, helping maintain strength in high-quality segments. However, gains remained limited due to rising arrivals from major producing regions. Improved weather conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting more quickly than expected, leading to a surge in fresh arrivals rather than a gradual supply flow. Farmers are also actively liquidating stocks to meet liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, adding selling pressure. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at around 28,500 bags, contributing to ample near-term supply availability. Fundamentally, production estimates remain lower than last year. National cumin production is projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags in the previous season, reflecting lower acreage and yield losses, particularly in Gujarat. Global production estimates from China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan also remain relatively modest, supporting the broader supply outlook. Export data remained mixed, with March shipments declining 15.54% year-on-year, although exports improved 17.64% compared to February, indicating a gradual recovery in overseas demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 10.4% to 6,435 lots while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs19,100, followed by Rs19,020. Resistance is placed at Rs19,270, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs19,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19020-19360.

* Jeera gains as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* European and North American buyers have re-entered the market, specifically targeting residue-compliant and high-specification lots.

* Large industrial processors have started increasing their "hand-to-mouth" inventory levels at these lower price points.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19604.6 Rupees dropped by -0.17 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views