IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.31% to settle at 146,917, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on bullion, although losses remained limited after weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data reduced expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike. June payroll growth slowed sharply, while employment figures for the previous two months were revised lower, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. Following the data, market expectations for a September Fed rate hike eased to around 50%, down from above 60% earlier. Investors are now awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes for additional policy guidance. On the demand front, JPMorgan maintained a constructive outlook but expects a more moderate rise in gold prices, projecting averages of $4,300/oz in the third quarter and $4,500/oz in the fourth quarter, citing softer demand from key consuming sectors. Physical demand in India weakened after prices recovered from recent lows, while buying interest in China improved modestly. Premiums in India narrowed slightly, and Chinese bullion traded near parity to small discounts against global spot prices. Other Asian markets, including Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore, also reported mixed premiums and discounts. Meanwhile, London vault holdings increased by 0.21% in May to 9,392 tonnes, highlighting stable institutional holdings. However, global physical gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2 billion during May, reducing total assets under management to $604 billion and holdings to 4,121 tonnes, with Asia and North America accounting for most of the withdrawals, while Europe remained the only region to record net inflows. Technically, gold remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 0.83%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at 146,260, followed by 145,605, while resistance is placed at 147,540. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 148,165.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 145605-148165.

*  Gold prices retreated pressured by a ‌firmer U.S. dollar, though losses were limited.

*  Data showed U.S. job growth slowed sharply in June and payroll gains for the prior two months were revised lower.

*  JPMorgan said demand for gold would not be as strong as it had expected, limiting the rise in gold prices this year.

Silver

Silver prices declined by 0.55% to settle at 236,099, as profit booking and a firmer U.S. dollar weighed on the market following recent gains. Despite the decline, underlying sentiment remained supported after weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data reduced expectations of an early Federal Reserve interest rate hike. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, well below market expectations, prompting traders to lower the probability of a September rate hike to around 50% from 66% before the employment report. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI eased to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May, reflecting continued expansion in the services sector but at a slower pace due to softer business activity and new orders. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation expectations are moderating while reiterating the central bank's commitment to price stability, whereas San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the policy stance remains slightly restrictive, with uncertainty over the Fed's next move. On the supply side, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 0.6% in May to 27,611 tonnes, indicating stable institutional inventories. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in value and 94% in volume to just 33 metric tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023, following tighter government import restrictions and an increase in import duties to 15%. These measures were introduced after India recorded a record $12 billion in silver imports during the 2025/26 financial year. Technically, silver remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 2.07%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at 234,765, followed by 233,425, while resistance is placed at 237,690. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 239,275.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 233425-239275.

* Silver dropped on profit booking and firmness in dollar after prices gained as weaker-than-expected US jobs data.

* Services PMI in the US fell to 54.0 in June 2026, down from 54.5 in May, matching market expectations.

* Traders now see about a 50% chance of a rate increase in September, down from more than 60% before the data.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined by 0.26% to settle at 6,551, as the market came under pressure after OPEC+ agreed to further increase production targets from August and exports through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, easing concerns over supply disruptions. The producer group approved an additional 188,000 barrels per day output increase for August, following similar quota hikes for June and July. However, actual production remains below planned levels as the recent U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting exports from major producers including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates raised crude production to near-record levels above 3.8 million barrels per day in June. In the United States, crude oil inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels to 408.3 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub increased for the first time in ten weeks, while refinery utilization improved as processing activity strengthened. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.333 million barrels, reflecting healthy fuel demand, whereas distillate inventories increased by 2.483 million barrels, indicating adequate diesel and heating oil supplies. Net U.S. crude imports also rose during the week, adding to overall market supply. Despite the announced production increases, OPEC+ output remains below pre-conflict levels, although exports have gradually recovered with improved shipping conditions. Investors continue to monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing geopolitical negotiations, which remain key drivers for crude oil prices. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 0.07%. Immediate support is seen at 6,490, followed by 6,428, while resistance is placed at 6,618. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 6,684.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6428-6684.

* Crude oil fell after OPEC+ agreed to ‌further increase its output while exports from Strait of Hormuz are recovering.

* OPEC+ agrees to raise oil output by 188,000 bpd from August

* OPEC oil output in June rose from its lowest in more than two decades, as Gulf members began reviving supplies.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 0.42% to settle at 309.1, pressured by robust domestic supply, higher-than-expected storage injections, softer crude oil prices, and changing weather expectations. The market remained under pressure after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an 87 billion cubic feet (Bcf) injection into underground storage for the week ended June 26, exceeding market expectations. Total working gas in storage reached 2,922 Bcf, standing 23 Bcf below the corresponding level last year but 175 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating a comfortable supply situation. Weather forecasts continue to influence market sentiment, with meteorologists expecting warmer-than-normal temperatures through mid-July, which could support seasonal cooling demand. However, the impact has been offset by exceptionally strong domestic production. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged around 110 Bcf per day during June, close to record highs, while natural gas flows to major U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminals averaged 17.3 Bcf per day, reflecting robust export demand. The EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record levels over the next two years. Dry gas production is expected to increase from 107.7 Bcf per day in 2025 to 111.0 Bcf per day in 2026, while domestic consumption is forecast to rise to 92.1 Bcf per day. LNG exports are also projected to expand steadily, averaging 17.2 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf per day in 2027, supported by growing global demand. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 0.45%, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at 303.5, followed by 297.9, while resistance is placed at 312.8. A sustained move above this level could open the door for further gains toward 316.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 297.9-316.5.

* Natural gas dropped driven by robust domestic supplies, falling oil prices, and shifting weather patterns.

* Gas inventories likely held about 6.4% above normal in the week ended July 3

* Despite cooler revisions, temperatures should stay above normal through July 21

Copper

Copper prices edged 0.20% higher to settle at 1,287.4, supported by tightening global supply conditions and continued inventory declines at major exchanges, although gains remained limited by uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy and potential import tariffs. Investors continued to monitor the possibility of U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, while expectations of higher interest rates later this year capped upside momentum due to concerns over slower industrial demand. Supply fundamentals remained supportive as copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 9.6% during the week, while stocks in LME warehouses continued to fall. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, reported a 12.9% year-on-year decline in May copper output to 423,623 metric tonnes. In contrast, China's refined copper production increased 2.2% to 1.26 million metric tonnes, highlighting strong domestic smelting activity. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 145,000 metric tonne global refined copper deficit in April, compared with a surplus in March, reflecting stronger consumption relative to production. China also recorded a 7-month high in unwrought copper imports during April, supported by robust investment in power grid infrastructure despite higher domestic output. Major financial institutions remain constructive on copper's long-term outlook. Goldman Sachs and Citi both raised their copper price forecasts, citing persistent mine supply constraints, expected global supply deficits, and stronger-than-anticipated demand. Supply disruptions at key mines, including Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, are expected to keep the market tight over the coming years. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.93% while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at 1,281.7, followed by 1,275.9, whereas resistance is placed at 1,291.6. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 1,295.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1275.9-1295.7.

* Copper steadied as fears of U.S. rate hikes later this year have weighed on metal prices.

* Comex Copper stocks at 668,691 short tons or 606,626 metric tons have climbed nearly 600% since then.

* Traders are still watching for news about a potential U.S. tariff on imports of refined copper.

Zinc

Zinc prices gained 1.13% to settle at 370.8, supported by encouraging manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States, which reinforced expectations for steady industrial metal demand. Although input costs remained elevated, manufacturing activity continued to show resilience. In the United States, manufacturing remained in expansion territory for the sixth consecutive month in June, despite moderating from May's four-year high, while China's manufacturing sector also displayed signs of improvement. Supply-side fundamentals remained supportive as inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 2.2% during the week, indicating healthy physical demand. Although China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, the market continued to receive support from supply disruptions at major global operations. Production at Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan remains constrained following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually recovering after a fire-related shutdown. In addition, operational concerns at Boliden's Garpenberg mine have raised expectations of prolonged lower mine output. Meanwhile, Japan's Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global refined zinc surplus narrowed significantly to 26,500 metric tonnes in April from 56,300 metric tonnes in March, reflecting a tightening market balance. Goldman Sachs expects a modest surplus during 2026 but anticipates slower mine supply growth from 2027 onward, potentially leading to deficits outside China as global demand is projected to grow by around 2% annually. Technically, zinc remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 18.01%, indicating the formation of new long positions. Immediate support is seen at 367.4, followed by 364.0, while resistance is placed at 373.0. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 375.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 364-375.2.

* Zinc gained supported by signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

* Data released by China, Europe, and the U.S. showed manufacturing strength despite higher input prices.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.2% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 0.67% to settle at 332.45, supported by concerns over tightening global supplies, falling exchange inventories, and the possibility of continued production disruptions in the Middle East. Although shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are gradually resuming, analysts continue to expect a supply deficit during the year. Macquarie forecasts Middle East aluminium production to decline to 4.44 million tonnes, down 35% from last year, while projecting a global aluminium market deficit of 930,000 tonnes in 2026. Supply conditions remained supportive as aluminium inventories in LME-approved warehouses declined to 295,550 tonnes, the lowest level since September 2022 and more than 40% lower than late January. Additionally, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell 1.4%, reflecting healthy physical demand. Japanese buyers agreed to pay significantly higher aluminium premiums for third-quarter deliveries, highlighting persistent tightness in regional supplies. While Emirates Global Aluminium has resumed production earlier than expected following earlier disruptions, full capacity is not expected for up to a year. Meanwhile, Norsk Hydro's Slovalco smelter plans a partial restart in the fourth quarter of 2026, adding future supply to the market. On the production side, China's aluminium output increased 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million tonnes, while total production during the first five months of the year rose 3.5%. China's manufacturing PMI improved to 50.3 in June, indicating expanding industrial activity, while exports of unwrought aluminium products continued to strengthen. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 5.92% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at 331.1, followed by 329.8, whereas resistance is placed at 333.5. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 334.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 329.8-334.6.

* Aluminium rose as focus returned to forecasts of shortages created by disruptions to supplies from ME and dwindling stocks.

* But even if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz restart, the market is still likely to see a deficit this year.

* LME stocks at 295,550 tons are down more than 40% since late January and at their lowest since September 2022.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 1.88% to settle at 17,892, supported by short covering after recent declines caused by increased arrivals during the peak harvest season. Although prices recovered, the market continues to face pressure from higher farmer selling as producers liquidate stocks amid faster arrivals in major mandis. Significant inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, have kept buyers cautious, while farmers who had delayed sales in anticipation of better prices have gradually increased market supplies. Demand conditions remained mixed. While cumulative exports continue to show resilience, fresh export orders from Europe and the United States slowed during the week. Quality concerns also emerged as reports of Rhizome Rot and deterioration in some arrivals forced sellers to accept lower prices. At the same time, favorable progress of the Southwest Monsoon across southern India has improved expectations for the next sowing season. Above-normal rainfall forecasts and early indications of increased acreage in major producing states point toward better production prospects for the 2026-27 season. Despite expectations of higher acreage, overall stock availability remains relatively tight. Industry estimates place carry-forward stocks at approximately 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season. Export demand remained broadly stable, with India's turmeric exports rising 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset weaker exports to the United States and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, steady buying from Bangladesh and increased demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers continued to support market sentiment. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing by 1.89%. Immediate support is seen at 17,606, followed by 17,318, while resistance is placed at 18,076. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 18,258.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 17318-18258.

* Turmeric gained on short covering after prices amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16856.75 Rupees gained by 1.95 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.54% to settle at 20,320, as traders booked profits following recent gains. Despite the correction, the overall market remains supported by tightening availability of premium-quality export-grade cumin. While total crop supplies remain adequate, the availability of high-purity bold seeds has reduced considerably as daily arrivals across major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan continue to decline after the peak harvest season. Unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms in key producing regions affected crop quality by increasing moisture levels and reducing seed color, resulting in a wider price gap between average-grade and premium-quality jeera. Farmers and stockists in Gujarat continue to adopt a measured selling strategy, releasing stocks gradually instead of making bulk sales, which has kept spot availability relatively tight. Domestic spice processors are maintaining hand-to-mouth purchases rather than building large inventories, ensuring steady but moderate demand. Meanwhile, export demand for residue-compliant and premium-quality lots has improved, with European and North American buyers returning to the market. Traders are also monitoring the progress of the Southwest Monsoon, as early rainfall patterns will influence soil moisture and acreage expectations for the next sowing season. Production estimates remain lower than last year due to reduced sowing acreage. India's jeera production is estimated at around 90-92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last season. China, another major producer, is also expected to report lower output due to adverse weather conditions. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April 2026, mainly because of a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE, although strong growth in exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the decline. Technically, jeera is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 7.04%. Immediate support is seen at 20,240, followed by 20,170, while resistance is placed at 20,390. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 20,470.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20170-20470.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20380.4 Rupees dropped by -0.19 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views