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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.34% at Rs 141,388, supported by short covering and continued geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran situation. Market participants closely monitored diplomatic developments after Iran indicated that negotiations with the United States could proceed if aligned with national interests. At the same time, expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy limited gains, as several Federal Reserve officials warned that further interest rate hikes may be required to contain persistent inflationary pressures. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack joined a growing number of policymakers advocating higher borrowing costs, increasing speculation ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh. Reflecting the shift in market expectations, CME FedWatch data now indicates an 80% probability of a December rate hike, compared with 73% a week earlier, reinforcing a stronger interest rate outlook that could influence investment demand for bullion. Physical gold demand remained subdued across major Asian markets. In India, discounts widened to as much as $45 per ounce over official domestic prices from $19 last week, as weak jewellery demand and expectations of lower prices kept buyers cautious. Chinese premiums remained broadly stable between par and $7 per ounce, while Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan also reported largely balanced physical markets. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes at the end of June 2026, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion, equivalent to nearly 757,145 gold bars. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 5.1% to 6,220 contracts while prices advanced. Gold is holding immediate support at Rs 140,885, followed by Rs 140,380, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 142,090. A sustained breakout above this level could extend the rally towards Rs 142,790, keeping the near-term technical bias cautiously positive.  

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 140380-142790.

* Gold prices were steady, as market participants weighed developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict

* US completes ninth night of strikes against Iran

* Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson says negotiations with US could be pursued

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 0.92% at Rs 218,400, supported by short covering and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market sentiment remained focused on the U.S.-Iran conflict after Iran signaled that negotiations with the United States could proceed if aligned with national interests, while concerns persisted over shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz following reported attacks on oil tankers. The uncertain geopolitical backdrop continued to provide support to precious metals. On the monetary policy front, Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish tone. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson all indicated that additional interest rate hikes could be required if inflation remains persistent. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to bringing inflation under control without providing explicit policy guidance. Markets currently assign around a 50% probability of a September rate hike, while expectations for a December rate hike have increased to 80% from 73% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch. Meanwhile, June data showed U.S. consumer and producer prices declined due to lower energy costs, although import prices unexpectedly increased. Fundamentally, ANZ expects silver to remain closely linked with gold in the near term, while its underlying demand outlook gradually improves over the medium to long term. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June 2026, valued at $53.1 billion, equivalent to approximately 936,052 silver bars. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.79% to 12,878 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 217,330, followed by Rs 216,265, while resistance stands at Rs 219,935. A sustained move above this level could open the way towards Rs 221,475, keeping the near-term outlook constructive.      

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 216265-221475.

* Silver gained as Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said negotiations with U.S. could be pursued based on national interests.

* Fed’s Hammack joined a growing chorus of policymakers suggesting further rate hikes may be needed to contain persistent inflation

* Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson suggested he would be open to raising rates if there was no near-term improvement in inflation.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices settled 0.49% higher at Rs 7,949, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that continued to keep a significant risk premium in energy markets. Prices remained volatile after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran would be held responsible for the deaths of three U.S. service members, while Yemen's Houthi militants announced a maritime embargo targeting Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over disruptions to Red Sea shipping. Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that negotiations with the United States could continue if they align with national interests, offering some hope for diplomatic progress despite ongoing military exchanges. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed picture. U.S. crude inventories declined by 1.693 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.533 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased sharply by 4.556 million barrels. Total U.S. crude stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 316.5 million barrels, the lowest level since April 1983, highlighting tighter long-term supply conditions. Meanwhile, China's refined fuel exports declined 18.3% year-on-year in June due to export restrictions, although shipments rebounded from the previous month. On the supply side, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day, marking the third consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 outlook. OPEC+ also approved a further 188,000 barrels per day production increase from August, although actual production remains below pre-war levels due to regional disruptions. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest rising 13.32% to 13,429 contracts alongside higher prices. Immediate support is seen at Rs 7,718, followed by Rs 7,487, while resistance is placed at Rs 8,169. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 8,389, keeping the near-term bias positive.         

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7487-8389.

* Crudeoil gained after US President Trump warned that Iran would be held responsible for the deaths of three US service members

* Caspian Pipeline Consortium said crude shipments were suspended again after a tanker was attacked again on July 20, following a brief resumption.

* China's refined oil product exports in June dropped 18.3% from a year earlier, customs data showed, curbed by fuel export restrictions.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 2.52% lower at Rs 274.6, pressured by abundant domestic supply, higher production, and weaker export demand despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. market remained well supplied as outages at the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas limited liquefied natural gas shipments, increasing the volume of gas available for domestic consumption. Although tensions in the Persian Gulf continued to restrict LNG flows to Europe and Asia, strong U.S. supply offset the potential bullish impact. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas was injected into storage during the week ended July 10, bringing total inventories to 3,024 bcf. Storage levels remain 6.4% above the five-year average, although they are 0.7% below the corresponding period last year. At the same time, average natural gas production in the Lower 48 states increased to 110.2 bcf per day in July from 110.0 bcf per day in June. Higher renewable energy generation from solar and wind also reduced demand for gas-fired power generation, adding further pressure on prices. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record levels over the next two years. Dry gas production is projected to increase to 111.2 bcf per day in 2026 and 115.3 bcf per day in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 bcf per day in 2025 to 17.4 bcf per day in 2026. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling, with open interest rising 6.32% to 32,442 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at Rs 272.2, followed by Rs 269.9, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 278.4. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 282.3, although the near-term bias remains cautious.     

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 269.9-282.3.

* Natural gas fell as ample domestic supply shielded the US from the export pressures from the Middle East.

* 41 billion cubic feet of gas were added to domestic storages in the week to July 10th to extend recent builds that were sharply higher than expected.

* Average gas production in the Lower 48 states increased to 110.2 bcf per day so far in July from 110.0 in the prior month.

Copper

Copper prices settled 0.91% higher at Rs 1,314.15, supported by tightening global supplies, declining inventories, and robust demand from China, the world's largest consumer of the industrial metal. Market sentiment strengthened after China's refined copper imports climbed to a nine-month high of 281,307 metric tons in June, reflecting healthy consumption and reduced domestic production due to maintenance at several smelters. China's physical market also remained firm, with the Yangshan copper premium rising to a 14-month high of $100 per ton, up 133% since the beginning of the year, highlighting strong import demand. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined to 79,909 tons, the lowest level since August last year and more than 80% below mid-March levels. Meanwhile, copper stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses have fallen 24% since the end of May to 295,275 tons, while high cancelled warrants indicate that additional metal is scheduled to leave exchange warehouses, keeping nearby supplies tight. Supply concerns were further reinforced by lower mine production in Chile. Codelco's output declined 18.3% year-on-year, while production at Escondida and Collahuasi also recorded double-digit declines during May. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market recorded a 145,000 metric ton deficit in April, compared with a 23,000 metric ton surplus in March, as consumption exceeded production. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying, with open interest increasing 0.59% to 12,030 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 1,306, followed by Rs 1,297.9, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 1,319. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 1,323.9, keeping the near-term technical outlook firmly positive.      

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1297.9-1323.9.

* Copper prices rose as dwindling inventories and signs of strong demand in China triggered a flurry of buying.

* China's imports of refined copper hitting a nine-month high in Jun.

* A gauge of China's appetite for importing metal, the Yangshan copper premium, jumped to a 14-month high of $100 a ton on July 17.

Zinc 

Zinc prices settled 0.11% higher at Rs 373.55, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and resilient manufacturing activity across major economies. Market sentiment remained firm despite China's economic growth slowing to a 3.5-year low, as manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States indicated continued industrial resilience despite elevated input costs. China's central bank also reiterated its commitment to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy while increasing financial support to stimulate domestic consumption. Supply-side developments continued to underpin prices. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru was temporarily shut due to fire damage before gradually resuming operations. Production concerns also persist at Boliden's Garpenberg mine after an earlier seismic event. These disruptions have reinforced expectations from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) for a 19,000-ton refined zinc deficit during the year. In China, refined zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses edged 0.28% lower, reflecting stable demand. Globally, the refined zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 metric tons in April from 56,300 metric tons in March, indicating improving market balance. Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus this year due to expanding mine supply but believes slower production growth after 2026 could shift markets outside China into deficit as demand continues to rise. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 7.87% to 2,331 contracts while prices edged higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs 372.1, followed by Rs 370.7, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 375.6. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 377.7, keeping the near-term technical outlook cautiously positive.    

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 370.7-377.7.

* Zinc gained amid tight near-term supply conditions and signs of strength in the manufacturing sector.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.28% from last Friday.

* China's economy is facing a structural mismatch between strong supply and weak demand, its central bank said.

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices settled 0.55% lower at Rs 341.05, pressured by renewed inflation concerns after rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted crude oil prices and reinforced expectations that global interest rates could remain elevated for longer. However, downside remained limited as supply-side risks continued to support the market, with aluminium inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses remaining at their lowest levels since 2022. Supply developments remained mixed. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes following disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle and operational issues at its Pinjarra refinery in Australia. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a three-and-a-half-month outage, with production expected to reach 50% capacity within days and full capacity by year-end. Aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses also declined 1.12%, reflecting continued tightness in visible stocks. China continued to dominate global trade flows. The country's unwrought aluminium and product exports climbed to a record 711,000 metric tons in June, up 12.5% from May, while first-half exports increased 16.3% year-on-year to 3.4 million tons. In contrast, aluminium imports fell 17.4% year-on-year in June due to an unfavourable import arbitrage. China's primary aluminium production increased 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million tons during the month. Meanwhile, Japanese port inventories declined 7.8%, supporting regional premiums. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.48% to 3,071 contracts while prices weakened. Immediate support is seen at Rs 339.6, followed by Rs 338.0, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 343.2. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 345.2, although the near-term technical bias remains cautiously neutral.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 338-345.2.

* Aluminium dropped as renewed tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices and heightened inflation concerns.

* China's imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products declined 17.4% in June from a year earlier.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.12% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled 1.19% lower at Rs 21,492, as improved monsoon rainfall across major producing regions eased immediate concerns over the upcoming crop and encouraged expectations of better production during the current Kharif season. Good rainfall over the past week is expected to accelerate sowing activities, while attractive prices near multi-year highs are likely to encourage farmers to increase acreage. However, the pace of sowing will continue to depend on the distribution of rainfall and the potential influence of El Niño on crop development. Despite the recent decline, downside remained limited due to lower market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, sharply lower than 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. Overall supplies remain structurally tight as lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks continue to support the market. Industry estimates place carry-forward inventories at around 15 lakh bags, significantly below more than 20 lakh bags recorded last season. At the same time, increased farmer selling during the harvest season and quality issues such as rhizome rot have weighed on near-term prices. Export demand remained resilient despite a marginal decline. India's turmeric exports slipped 1% year-on-year to 18,960 tonnes in May 2026, while cumulative exports during April-May remained broadly stable at 33,999 tonnes. Strong demand from China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy helped offset weaker shipments to other destinations, particularly for IPM-certified turmeric. Technically, the market witnessed fresh selling, with open interest increasing 2.95% to 29,985 contracts while prices declined. Immediate support is seen at Rs 21,190, followed by Rs 20,886, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 21,738. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,982, while the near-term bias remains cautiously neutral.       

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20886-21982.

* Turmeric dropped as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased concerns regarding the upcoming crop.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production.

* However, downside seen limited due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20306.65 Rupees gained by 1.3 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices settled 1.31% higher at Rs 21,285, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds and continued short covering. While overall crop availability remains adequate, the supply of export-grade, high-purity bold seeds has tightened considerably as arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan continue to decline. Reduced availability of superior-quality produce has supported prices despite mixed export demand. Market fundamentals remained balanced with both supportive and limiting factors. Farmers have accelerated stock liquidation to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather enabled faster harvesting and marketing of the crop. Higher arrivals earlier in the season contributed to a steady increase in NCDEX warehouse stocks, reducing the urgency for spot purchases. Industrial spice processors and stockists continue to follow a hand-to-mouth buying strategy, limiting aggressive procurement. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have disrupted logistics and softened demand from traditional buyers, while Chinese buying has remained sporadic and price-sensitive. Supply concerns persist as reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and reduced the availability of premium-grade seeds. Domestic production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than 1.10 crore bags last year due to reduced sowing acreage. Production estimates stand at 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan, while lower output expectations in China are also supporting the global outlook. India's jeera exports declined 26% year-on-year to 17,177 tonnes in May 2026, with cumulative April-May exports falling 22% to 33,431 tonnes. However, shipments to Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland recorded strong growth, partially offsetting weaker demand from traditional markets. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.55% to 10,080 contracts while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 20,980, followed by Rs 20,660, whereas resistance is placed at Rs 21,510. A sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,720, keeping the near-term outlook cautiously positive.             

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20660-21720.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20895.9 Rupees dropped by -0.29 percent.

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