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Gold 

Gold prices witnessed a sharp decline, settling 3.59% lower at Rs.1,41,270 as international prices slipped below the crucial $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time since November 2025. The correction was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Market sentiment turned bearish after the Fed maintained a hawkish stance and concerns persisted that inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict could prompt further monetary tightening. Major financial institutions revised their outlooks lower, with ING, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank trimming near-term gold price forecasts while maintaining a constructive longer-term view. Physical demand indicators also remained weak. India's gold imports have plunged nearly 70% since import duties were increased to 15%, significantly reducing buying interest. Swiss gold exports declined 9% in May as lower shipments to India and Hong Kong offset stronger deliveries to the UK and China. In the physical market, Indian dealers widened discounts to as much as $54 per ounce, reflecting subdued demand despite prices reaching a two-and-a-half-month low. China also shifted to discounts for the first time since late December as investors remained cautious awaiting clarity on the U.S.-Iran agreement. Investment demand softened as well. Global gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2 billion in May, led by withdrawals from Asia and North America, while total holdings slipped to 4,121 tonnes. India's physically backed gold ETFs also registered their first monthly outflow in a year due to profit-booking. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest rose 2.63% to 9,583 lots while prices declined sharply, indicating fresh short positions. Gold has immediate support at Rs.1,39,640, with a break below likely to trigger further weakness towards Rs.1,38,010. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.1,44,190, and a sustained move above this level could open the door for a recovery towards Rs.1,47,110.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 138010-147110.

*  Gold prices slipped below a key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce level for the first time since November 2025

*  Prices seen under pressure from ‌a firmer U.S. dollar and growing expectations that interest rates will remain elevated.

*  Traders have ramped up bets on U.S. interest rate hikes this year after the U.S. central bank struck a hawkish tone.

Silver 

Silver prices witnessed a sharp selloff, settling 5.65% lower at Rs.2,13,075 amid growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance for longer. The decline was largely driven by a stronger U.S. dollar following the Fed's latest meeting, where updated projections indicated that a majority of policymakers favor at least one additional rate hike this year to contain inflationary pressures linked to higher energy costs. Strong U.S. economic fundamentals, including resilient business activity and a stable labor market, have reinforced expectations that the Fed can remain focused on returning inflation to its 2% target. Market participants are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a rate increase in September. Investors are also closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the final estimate of first-quarter GDP, as these reports could significantly influence interest-rate expectations and precious metal sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. current account deficit widened to $226.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing external imbalances despite government efforts to narrow the trade gap. On the physical market front, silver demand remained subdued. India's silver imports plunged 87% year-on-year in May to their lowest level in more than three years after the government imposed stricter import restrictions and raised import duties on precious metals to 15% from 6%. In volume terms, imports dropped 94% to just 33 metric tons. However, silver holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes, indicating adequate global inventory availability. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined sharply by 39.21% to 6,736 lots while prices fell significantly. Silver has immediate support at Rs.2,07,870, with a break below this level likely to trigger further weakness towards Rs.2,02,665. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.2,22,695, and a sustained move above this level could lead to a recovery towards Rs.2,32,315.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 202665-232315.

* Silver falls below $58 to its lowest level since December 2025 as a stronger US Dollar and hawkish Fed expectations weigh.

* Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a September rate hike ahead of Thursday's US PCE inflation report and final GDP Q1 data.

* Recent US economic data suggest business activity remains in expansion territory and the labor market is holding up well.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 4.24% to settle at Rs.6,669 amid growing signs of improving global supply conditions and easing geopolitical risks. Market sentiment weakened as more oil tankers prepared to move through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East. Additional pressure came from reports that physical crude cargoes are being offered at discounts across major markets as increased Middle Eastern supplies weigh on global pricing. Iran is expected to boost oil exports following a temporary 60-day sanctions waiver granted by the United States, while easing tensions in Lebanon have further reduced risk premiums in the market. Despite the recent peace developments, uncertainty remains regarding the long-term stability of the U.S.-Iran agreement. While U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran had agreed to indefinite nuclear inspections, Iranian officials denied making such commitments, leaving the future of the accord uncertain. Reflecting a softer market outlook, J.P. Morgan lowered its Brent crude forecasts for the second half of 2026, citing weaker-than-expected inventory draws and softer global demand expectations. On the inventory front, U.S. crude oil stocks declined by 6.09 million barrels during the week, exceeding expectations of a 4.5 million-barrel draw and indicating healthy refinery demand. However, the supportive inventory data was offset by sizeable increases in gasoline and distillate fuel stocks, suggesting slower end-user consumption. Meanwhile, net crude imports increased modestly, adding to supply availability. OPEC output in May fell to its lowest level in more than two decades due to disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and shipping constraints, although expectations of recovering Iranian exports continue to influence market sentiment. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure as open interest surged by 23.55% to 15,738 lots while prices declined, indicating fresh short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs.6,530, with further downside possible towards ?6,390. Resistance is placed at Rs.6,884, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs.7,098.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6390-7098.

* Crude prices fell on signs that more oil tankers are set ‌to move out of the Strait of Hormuz.

* Prices have also come under pressure from the 60-day sanctions waiver Washington granted Tehran.

* More vessels transit Hormuz, underpinning optimism

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 1.14% to settle at Rs.302.4, supported by declining U.S. production levels and increased gas flows to LNG export facilities. Market sentiment improved as U.S. Lower 48 dry gas output averaged 109.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June, slightly below May levels and well below the record high reached in December 2025. At the same time, LNG export demand remained strong, with feedgas deliveries to major U.S. export terminals increasing to 17.3 bcfd in June, supported by higher flows to the Golden Pass LNG facility in Texas. Weather forecasts also provided support to prices, with meteorologists expecting above-normal temperatures across much of the United States through early July. Hotter weather is likely to increase electricity demand for air conditioning, thereby boosting natural gas consumption from power generators. Since nearly 40% of U.S. electricity generation is fueled by natural gas, rising cooling demand is expected to strengthen overall gas usage. LSEG forecasts total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to increase from 102.3 bcfd this week to 105.6 bcfd next week. On the storage front, U.S. energy firms injected 73 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the latest reported week, slightly below market expectations of 75 bcf. Total inventories rose to 2.759 trillion cubic feet, standing 1% below year-ago levels but still nearly 5.8% above the five-year average, indicating comfortable supply availability. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects both natural gas production and demand to reach record highs in 2026 and 2027. LNG exports are also projected to continue expanding, supported by new export capacity and growing international demand. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 36.1% to 6,484 lots while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at Rs.298.6, with further support at Rs.294.7. Resistance is placed at Rs.305, and a move above this level could extend gains towards Rs.307.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 294.7-307.5.

* Natural gas edged up on a decline in output and a rise in gas flows to LNG export plants in recent weeks.

* LNG feedgas rising with record flows to Golden Pass in Texas

* Lower 48 gas output slipped to 109.5 bcfd so far in June, LSEG said

Copper

Copper prices declined sharply by 4.56% to settle at Rs.1,223.3, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Market participants have significantly increased bets on a September rate hike, with the probability rising to around 68% from 29% a week ago. The dollar index climbed above 101.7, reaching its highest level since March 2025, making dollar-denominated commodities less attractive to global buyers. Additional pressure emerged after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver, easing geopolitical concerns and weighing on broader commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, concerns over growing supply availability also impacted prices. Macquarie highlighted risks of a medium-term correction, citing an accumulation of nearly 870,000 tons of visible copper inventories since the beginning of 2025 and expectations of market surpluses in the coming years. The International Copper Study Group reported a 30,000-ton refined copper surplus in March and projects the global market to shift to a 96,000-ton surplus in 2026, supported by increased secondary production and slower demand growth. Global refined copper consumption growth is expected to moderate, particularly in developed economies. However, longer-term fundamentals remain supportive. China’s refined copper production rose 2.2% year-on-year in May, while unwrought copper imports increased 3.2% in April, driven by robust investment in power grid infrastructure. Copper inventories monitored by the SHFE declined 23.6% last week, indicating healthy near-term demand. Major investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Citi have raised their copper price forecasts, citing persistent mine supply constraints and expectations of structural deficits later in the decade. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 27.93% to 5,609 lots while prices fell sharply. Copper has immediate support at Rs.1,202.2, with further downside likely towards Rs.1,181.1. Resistance is seen at Rs.1,263.2, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery towards Rs.1,303.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1181.1-1303.1.

* Copper dropped as dollar continued to draw support from expectations that Fed will keep monetary policy restrictive.

* The dollar index extended its gains to above 101.7, reaching its highest level since March 2025.

* Pressure also seen after the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks.

Zinc 

Zinc prices declined by 2.39% to settle at Rs.353.7, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors increased expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The dollar climbed to a 13-month high, reducing the appeal of industrial metals and weighing on broader commodity sentiment. Additional pressure came from rising Chinese zinc production, which increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, reflecting improved domestic supply conditions and easing concerns over immediate availability. Despite the price decline, underlying fundamentals remain relatively supportive. Progress in diplomatic discussions between major economies helped improve expectations for global industrial activity, supporting the demand outlook for base metals. Supply-side concerns also continue to provide a floor for prices. Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru experienced a temporary shutdown due to fire damage, with production only gradually resuming. Concerns have also emerged regarding prolonged lower output at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine after a seismic event earlier this year. Market balances remain relatively tight despite recent production growth. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly to 26,500 tons in April from 56,300 tons in March. Earlier forecasts had pointed to a refined zinc deficit this year, while Goldman Sachs expects only a small surplus, supported by growing mine supply and concentrate destocking. Looking ahead, slowing mine supply growth during 2027 and 2028 could push markets outside China into deficit conditions. Meanwhile, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 1.2% last week, indicating stable consumption. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest fell sharply by 34.14% to 847 lots while prices moved lower. Zinc has immediate support at Rs.349.7, with a break below likely to extend losses towards Rs.345.5. Resistance is seen at Rs.360.6, and a move above this level could trigger further gains towards Rs.367.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 345.5-367.3.

* Zinc dropped as the U.S. dollar touched a 13-month high as investors positioned for Fed rate hikes.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons.

* China's central bank will continue to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, and strengthen financial support.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices witnessed a sharp decline of 4.27%, settling at Rs.330.5, as the continued unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium linked to the Middle East outweighed supportive supply-side fundamentals. Market sentiment weakened following signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran, reducing concerns over disruptions to global aluminium supply chains. The London Metal Exchange cash-to-three-month spread remained in a slight contango, indicating improved near-term supply availability and easing immediate tightness in the physical market. Despite the recent decline, several fundamental factors continue to support the medium-term outlook. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes, highlighting ongoing supply challenges. Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook for the metal, forecasting a global aluminium deficit of 720,000 tonnes in 2026 due to slower-than-expected recovery of smelting operations in key Gulf producers such as the UAE and Bahrain. The bank expects supply disruptions in West Asia to persist into 2027, keeping the market relatively tight. China, the world's largest aluminium producer and consumer, continued to show strong activity. Aluminium output increased 1.7% year-on-year in May to 3.89 million tonnes, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. At the same time, Chinese imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products rose 6.9% in March, while exports increased 5.7% in May and over 10% during the first five months of 2026. These figures reflect solid trade activity despite easing concerns over Middle East supply risks. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 34.78% to 1,007 lots while prices moved sharply lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs.325, with further weakness likely towards Rs.319.3 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs.340.5, and a sustained move above this level could support a recovery towards Rs.350.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 319.3-350.3.

* Aluminium prices fell amid a continued unwinding of the Middle East risk premium

* LME cash-to-three-month premium was in a slight contango at $-3.46 a ton, suggesting an improvement in supply.

* Global primary aluminium output in May fell 1.7% year on year to 6.15 million tonnes – IAI

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices declined by 1.56% to settle at Rs.16,408 as increased arrivals and aggressive selling by farmers during the peak harvest season weighed on market sentiment. Daily arrivals across major mandis have accelerated, outpacing immediate demand and creating short-term pressure on prices. Farmers who had been holding stocks in anticipation of higher rates have gradually started releasing inventories into the market. Additionally, substantial stock availability, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal as of the end of May, has kept buyers cautious and limited fresh purchases. Further pressure came from reports of rhizome rot and quality deterioration in some fresh arrivals, forcing sellers to offer discounts to attract buyers. Export demand, while generally stable, witnessed a temporary slowdown in fresh orders from key markets such as Europe and the United States. However, the overall export outlook remains supportive. India’s turmeric exports rose marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong demand from China, where imports surged to 1,455 tonnes from just 9 tonnes a year earlier, along with robust growth in shipments to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan, helped offset weaker exports to the UAE and the United States. Market fundamentals continue to receive support from lower carry-forward stocks, estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from the European Union and active procurement by Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric have also provided underlying support. Meanwhile, the advancement of the Southwest Monsoon and expectations of above-normal rainfall have improved prospects for the next sowing season and encouraged acreage expansion in major producing states. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 1.59% to 24,745 lots while prices moved lower. Immediate support is seen at Rs.16,202, with further downside likely towards Rs.15,994. Resistance is placed at Rs.16,684, and a move above this level could support a recovery towards Rs.16,958.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15994-16958.

* Turmeric dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the current peak harvest window.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15892.55 Rupees dropped by -1.56 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined by 1.42% to settle at Rs.20,445 as traders booked profits after the recent rally. Despite the correction, underlying market sentiment remains supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds. While overall physical supplies remain adequate, the availability of export-grade, high-purity cumin has reduced more rapidly than expected. Arrivals in key markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have slowed significantly as the peak harvest season comes to an end, allowing stockists and warehouse operators greater control over supply and pricing. Recent unseasonal rainfall, strong winds, and dust storms in major producing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan have affected crop quality by increasing moisture levels and reducing seed color, resulting in a widening premium between average-grade and export-quality cumin. Farmers and stockholders are also releasing stocks gradually rather than selling aggressively, creating localized tightness in high-grade supplies. Export demand continues to provide support, with buyers from Europe and North America actively seeking residue-compliant and premium-quality lots. Additionally, disease outbreaks in some Gujarat-growing regions have impacted both crop quality and harvestable output. Production estimates remain lower than last year due to reduced sowing acreage. Total cumin production is projected at around 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last season. Lower production estimates from China due to adverse weather conditions are also lending support to global sentiment. Although India’s jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April 2026, strong demand from Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset weaker shipments to the UAE. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 1.72% to 9,093 lots while prices moved lower. Jeera has immediate support at Rs.20,300, with further downside likely towards Rs.20,150. Resistance is seen at Rs.20,700, and a move above this level could support gains towards Rs.20,950

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20150-20950.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20594.6 Rupees dropped by -0.23 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views