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The U.S. wheat price outlook remains stable at $5.70 per bushel for the 2024/25 season. However, globally, wheat supplies are projected to increase by 1.5 million tons to 1,062.1 million tons, driven by higher beginning stocks, especially in Canada. While production declines in the EU due to adverse weather, Australia and Ukraine are expected to see increases in output. Global consumption is also forecasted to rise, driven by higher feed use, while global trade is projected to grow, supported by exports from Australia, Canada, and Ukraine. The global wheat ending stocks are expected to rise slightly, creating a balanced market outlook for 2024/25.

Key Highlights

* U.S. wheat price outlook remains unchanged at $5.70 per bushel for 2024/25.

* Global wheat supplies projected to rise by 1.5 million tons, reaching 1,062.1 million tons.

* EU wheat production drops due to poor weather, while Australia and Ukraine see increases.

* World wheat consumption rises to 804.9 million tons, driven by feed and residual use.

* Global wheat ending stocks forecasted to increase slightly to 257.2 million tons.

The U.S. wheat price outlook for the 2024/25 season remains stable, with the season-average farm price projected at $5.70 per bushel. Despite global market fluctuations, U.S. prices have not been significantly impacted, providing some relief for domestic producers. The stability is mainly supported by consistent demand and no significant changes in the wheat supply for the U.S.

Globally, the wheat market paints a different picture. Total global supplies for the 2024/25 season are expected to increase by 1.5 million tons, reaching 1,062.1 million tons. This rise is attributed to higher-than-expected beginning stocks in Canada, which offset the decline in production seen in the European Union. The EU’s wheat output has been negatively impacted by adverse harvest conditions in France and Germany, which lowered production by 4 million tons. However, Australia and Ukraine have provided some balance, with their production forecasted to increase by 2 million tons and 0.7 million tons, respectively, on favorable weather and harvest data.

In terms of consumption, global wheat demand is projected to rise slightly, driven primarily by higher feed use across several countries. Additionally, global trade is set to grow, with exports from Australia, Canada, and Ukraine compensating for the reduction in EU wheat exports. The 2024/25 global ending stocks are forecasted to increase slightly by 0.6 million tons, largely due to higher reserves in Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan.

Finally

With U.S. prices stable and global supplies rising, the wheat market faces a balanced yet competitive outlook for 2024/25.

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