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The 2024/25 soybean outlook reflects key shifts in both U.S. and global markets. In the U.S., soybean crush is projected to rise, driven by increased demand for soybean meal and oil exports. Ending stocks are lowered slightly due to higher imports and unchanged exports. Despite tighter supplies, the season-average soybean price remains steady at $9.95 per bushel. Globally, higher beginning stocks—mainly from Brazil—are paired with reduced production and increased crush and exports. Soybean oil prices edge up while meal prices decline. Global vegetable oil production dips slightly due to reduced palm oil output. Overall, the soybean market continues to respond to changing biofuel trends, international trade dynamics, and global feedstock supplies.

Key Highlights

# U.S. soybean crush rises to 4.42 billion bushels.

# Ending stocks fall by 5 million bushels to 375 million.

# Soybean oil price increases to 45 cents per pound.

# Global soybean crush up 2 million tons to 354.8 million.

# Global palm oil production falls 1.3 million tons.

Soybean prices for the 2024/25 U.S. marketing year are forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel, holding steady despite a tightening in domestic supply. Soybean oil prices are set to rise slightly by 2 cents to 45 cents per pound, while soybean meal prices are lowered by $10 to $300 per short ton. These price movements are influenced by a higher soybean crush forecast, now at 4.42 billion bushels, spurred by increased domestic demand for meal and stronger soybean oil exports.

Supporting the pricing outlook, U.S. soybean ending stocks are revised downward by 5 million bushels to 375 million, due to slightly higher imports and unchanged export levels. While soybean oil use for biofuel is trimmed based on recent pace, future usage is expected to pick up as tariffs reduce the flow of alternative biofuel feedstocks such as used cooking oil.

Globally, soybean markets show higher beginning stocks—primarily from Brazil—alongside a modest decline in production. Brazil’s 2023/24 crop is revised up by 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million, contributing to a global soybean ending stocks increase of 1.1 million tons. Despite the higher crush forecast globally, vegetable oil output is lowered due to reduced palm oil production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Soybean trade remains active, with global exports slightly raised to 182.1 million tons. Increased exports from Canada and Nigeria are partially offset by reductions in Ukraine.

Finally

The soybean market remains resilient, with steady U.S. prices and global demand supported by shifting biofuel policies and strong international crush trends.

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