Evening Track : Gold Set for Weekly Gain as Oil Faces Biggest 4-Month Loss - Kotak Securities Ltd
* COMEX gold futures trading positive on Friday near $2,930/oz, driven by a weakening dollar and tariff-induced market uncertainty. The dollar index's four-month low bolstered gold's appeal, positioning it for a weekly gain. Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, including the recent suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, fueled safe-haven demand amidst growth slowdown and inflation fears. Notably, China's central bank continued its gold reserve expansion for the fourth consecutive month, reinforcing the metal's upward trajectory. This strategic accumulation, following a brief pause, underscores gold's role as a hedge against economic volatility. Investors now await US non-farm payroll data, which could further influence market sentiment. Gold was on track for a weekly gain, as traders sought havens after new US tariffs whipsawed markets and added to increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook.
* WTI crude jumps on Friday to trade above $67.20/barrel on Friday, yet remains poised for its largest weekly loss since October, driven by persistent US tariff policy uncertainties. President Trump's fluctuating trade measures, particularly concerning Mexico and Canada, have injected substantial market volatility. Coupled with retaliatory actions from China, US crude is on track for its seventh consecutive weekly decline, the longest since December 2023. OPEC+'s planned April production increase, coupled with rising US inventories, further exacerbates bearish pressures.
* LME base metals trading lower on Friday, with copper leading the slide, down nearly 0.50%, with copper leading the decline, driven by persistent uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. President Trump's fluctuating stance, from potential 25% copper import duties to temporary reprieves for Canada and Mexico, fuels market anxiety. Traders await clarity on the broader April tariff framework. Copper's vulnerability persists, as US import tariffs could tighten global supply. Chinese aluminum producers seek alternative markets to mitigate US levies. China's 2025 growth target and infrastructure spending offer potential demand support. The near-term outlook hinges on US trade policies, dollar movements, and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
* European natural gas prices experienced a significant downturn, registering a 4.8% intraday drop and poised for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Prices have plummeted over 35% from February's peak amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, notably Trump's reduced support for Ukraine and his push for a swift ceasefire. The market is speculating a potential resurgence of Russian gas flows to Europe, which is grappling with elevated energy costs. Reports indicate Trump's intent to link a US-Ukraine minerals deal to Kyiv's commitment to an immediate ceasefire with Russia, further influencing market sentiment and driving prices downward.
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