EcoScope : GST Monitor: GST collections stood at INR2t in Jul’25 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
GST Monitor: GST collections stood at INR2t in Jul’25
* India’s GST collections for Jul’25 reached INR1.96t (vs. INR1.85t in Jun’25 and INR1.82t in Jul’24), up 7.5% YoY (higher than 6.2% YoY in Jun’25 but lower than the growth in Jul’24). The YoY moderation was mainly attributed to a five-month low growth in GST collections on imports (Exhibit 1).
* In Jul’25, CGST collections amounted to INR354.7b (up 9.5% YoY in Jul’25 vs. 8.8% YoY in Jul’24) and SGST collections stood at INR440.6b (up 9.4% YoY in Jul’25 vs. 7.1% in Jul’24). IGST collections amounted to INR1035.4b (up 7.4% YoY in Jul’25 vs. 12.2% YoY in Jul’24; Exhibit 2).
* GST collected on domestic activities grew 6.7% YoY in Jul’25 vs. 9.0% YoY growth in Jul’24. At the same time, GST collected on imports grew 9.8% YoY to INR527.1b in Jul’25 vs. 14% YoY growth in Jul’24. GST collected on domestic transactions constituted 76.5% of the total GST receipts in FYTD26 vs. 78% in FYTD25 and 76.4% in FY25 (Exhibit 3).
* GST collections for Apr-Jul’25 totaled INR8.2t, registering a 10.7% increase over the same period last year—suggesting a stable fiscal position going into 2QFY26.
* For FY26, the GoI has budgeted 11% growth, implying GST receipts of INR24.5t or monthly receipts of INR2.0t (Exhibit 4). We believe the FY26BE target is achievable. GST collections in FY26 are expected to remain strong, supported by steady economic growth, better tax compliance, and increased formalization of businesses. Import-led tax buoyancy, expanding digital footprint (e-invoicing, AI audits), and reduced evasion are expected to drive revenue further. However, net revenue growth may remain moderate due to elevated refund claims, especially from exporters. Rationalization of tax slabs, potential inclusion of petroleum and electricity under GST, and better state-Centre coordination will shape medium-term trends.
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