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2026-11-03 02:14:38 pm | Source: Monarch Networth Capital
Diwali Picks 2026 : VA Tech Wabag Ltd for the Target Rs. 2,235 by Monarch Networth Capital
Diwali Picks 2026 : VA Tech Wabag Ltd for the Target Rs. 2,235 by Monarch Networth Capital

VA Tech Wabag Ltd (Wabag) is a Chennai-headquartered, pure-play water technology company and one of the top three global players in desalination and water treatment, with a heritage of over 100 years. It designs, builds and operates desalination, municipal sewage and drinking water, industrial (ZLD and ultra-pure water) and waterreuse plants across 25+ countries, backed by 125+ proprietary technologies and 1,500+ plants built since 1995. Its asset-light model pairs EPC execution with long-tenure O&M contracts, and 95-98% of its order book is backed by multilateral funding or sovereign guarantees. In Q1 FY27, Wabag reported revenue of Rs 887 crore (up 21% YoY), EBITDA (incl. forex) of Rs 116 crore (13.1% margin) and PAT of Rs 90 crore (up 37% YoY), while order intake of Rs 3,431 crore lifted the order book to a record Rs 19,400 crore.

* Record order book, strong visibility: The order book stood at a record Rs 194bn (4.7x TTM revenue) in June 2026, after record inflows of Rs 74.7bn in FY26 (up 31% YoY) and Rs 34.3bn in Q1 FY27. Recent mega wins include desalination plants at Yanbu (300 MLD, Saudi Arabia), Doha (272 MLD, Kuwait) and Perur (400 MLD, Chennai). The book is well balanced (EPC 66% / O&M 34%; India 51% / overseas 49%), and a bid pipeline of ~Rs 400bn over the next 18 months supports continued inflows.

* Structural water-stress tailwind: India has 18% of the world's population but only 4% of its freshwater, and water demand is projected at 1,498 BCM against supply of 744 BCM by 2030. Only ~17% of India's wastewater is treated (CPCB) however, Government AMRUT 2.0 (Rs 3tn) scheme will drive spending towards that area. The global water and wastewater treatment market is expected to grow from US$295bn (2024) to US$633bn by 2035, with new demand from data centres, semiconductors and green hydrogen (a US$4-6bn opportunity).

* Asset-light, net cash and better returns: Its WRIDDHI strategy shifted the mix from low-margin civil work to technology-led and overseas projects, lifting average RoE/RoCE from 11%/10% (FY13-22) to 15%/14% (FY23-26). It held net cash of Rs 965 crore at Q1 FY27 (its 14th straight net-cash quarter), is rated AA (Stable)/A1+ and enjoys a 7-10% cost advantage over global peers. Its plan to raise O&M to 20% of revenue (17% now) adds annuity-like earnings, though receivable days (~290) remain the key watch item.

* Key risks: Middle East exposure (35-40% of the backlog), delayed payments from government clients, cost overruns on large desalination projects and currency volatility (Q1 FY27 PAT included a Rs 37 crore forex gain).

* Outlook & Valuation: Management guides to 15-20% revenue growth (upper end likely in FY27) and a 13-15% EBITDA margin. We expect Revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 18%, 23% and 26%, respectively, over FY26-FY28E. Based on our DCF valuation, we arrive at a one-year fwd. intrinsic value of INR 2,235.

 

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