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Daily Market Commentary for April 13th 2026 By Siddhartha Khemka - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Indian markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with limited scope for relief until meaningful progress is seen in the West Asia conflict. Following the breakdown of US–Iran peace talks over the weekend has heightened concerns over a prolonged standoff. The absence of an agreement has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and a weakening rupee, which could keep foreign fund flows under pressure. Additionally, the ongoing earnings season is expected to add to market volatility, keeping sentiment cautious. On Monday, Indian markets declined sharply but recovered from day’s lows, with the Nifty falling over 2% amid a confluence of global and domestic headwinds, before trimming losses on value buying at lower levels. The initial decline was driven by heightened geopolitical concerns after US–Iran negotiations failed, raising doubts over the ceasefire and fuelling fears of a prolonged conflict. Crude oil prices surged sharply, with Brent rising 7.5% to $102 per barrel following US signals of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to tighten global oil supply and increase costs for India, escalating concerns over supply disruptions. Weak global cues and a depreciating rupee (93.4/USD) further added to the pressure. However, markets recovered from day’s lows on value buying and selective support from financials and key sectors, despite prevailing negative sentiment. Nifty closed at 23,842 (-0.8%), while broader markets also recovered from their lows, with the Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending down 0.5% and 0.4, respectively. Sectorally, PSU Banks, Auto, IT and Oil & Gas emerged as the worst performers. Broad-based selling in oil-sensitive stocks was triggered by the spike in crude prices, with the Nifty Oil & Gas index declining over 2%. PSU banks declined over 3%, as higher crude prices heightened inflation concerns and increased the likelihood of tighter monetary policy, weighing on rate-sensitive sectors. While the India VIX spiked to 21.3 (from 18.8), reflecting heightened volatility and risk aversion among investors. On the institutional front, FIIs turned net buyers on Friday, purchasing Rs.672 crore worth of equities and snapping a 27-session selling streak. However, this trend may prove short-lived, as the lack of resolution in US–Iran talks and rising geopolitical uncertainty could trigger a return of selling pressure in the near term. Overall, market sentiment remains fragile amid escalating geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices and persistent volatility. While intermittent recoveries may emerge on value buying, the broader trend is likely to stay cautious, with near-term direction dependent on developments in the West Asia conflict, movement in energy prices and foreign fund flow trends.

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