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Below the Daily Market Commentary for April 29th 2026 by By Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Markets are expected to react to the domestic political developments, as exit polls after the second phase of state elections are due later this evening. Investor sentiment will be influenced by these outcomes, while the final results next week are likely to add to market volatility on Monday. Meanwhile, elevated crude oil prices and the lack of clarity on US–Iran negotiations continue to remain key overhangs. The ongoing earnings season will further drive stock- and sector-specific action, with key results on Thursday from Bajaj Finserv, HUL, NSDL, Adani Enterprises and more. On Wednesday, Indian markets traded with a positive bias, supported by strong global cues and optimism around easing geopolitical tensions, which helped indices open firm. However, gains were restricted as crude oil prices surged to USD 114 per barrel, the rupee remained weak near record lows and there were no meaningful updates on US–Iran negotiations. The Nifty closed at 24,178 (+0.7%), while broader markets were mixed, with the Midcap100 ended flat and the Smallcap100 gaining 0.7%. Sectorally, major indices ended in green and the Nifty Auto index outperformed, supported by strength in index heavyweights, which helped anchor the benchmark indices. Market participation remained selective, with stock-specific action driven by earnings and news flow. On the energy front, crude oil prices remained a key concern, with Brent crude at USD 114 per barrel, due to uncertainties around the west Asia conflict, intensifying worries around inflation and external stability. On the domestic front, the government has prepared a Cabinet note for a new urea investment policy aimed at bridging a supply gap of nearly 100 lakh tonnes and reducing import dependence. It includes a structured subsidy framework to incentivize fresh capacity creation. The proposed urea policy is positive for the fertiliser sector, as it improves earnings visibility, supports capacity expansion and reduces import dependence, while maintaining a regulated profitability framework. On the macro front, India’s industrial production (IIP) growth rose to 4.1% in March 2026 (vs 3.9% YoY), indicating a modest improvement in activity. Manufacturing and mining showed steady growth, while strong capital goods output (+14.6%) signalled healthy investment demand, even as consumer trends remained mixed. Looking forward, markets are likely to remain volatile and event-driven in the near term, with reactions to exit poll outcomes expected to guide sentiment ahead of the final election results next week. At the same time, the ongoing earnings season, elevated crude oil prices, currency movement and developments in US–Iran negotiations will continue to remain key overhangs

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