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Gold

Gold settled 0.73% lower at Rs. 148,450, declining by Rs. 1,093 as the US dollar climbed to an 18-month high ahead of key inflation reports that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Stronger inflation readings could strengthen expectations of tighter monetary policy, supporting Treasury yields and the dollar while increasing pressure on non-yielding bullion. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rising bond yields primarily reflect stronger economic growth rather than higher inflation expectations, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated that further rate increases may be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target. According to CME FedWatch, traders priced in a 19% probability of a rate hike this month and an 88% probability of a December increase. The International Monetary Fund also highlighted concerns over elevated public debt and rising bond yields amid war-driven inflation risks. Physical gold demand in India remained sluggish following the price rebound, with domestic dealers quoting discounts of up to $6 per ounce compared with discounts of $14 last week. Upcoming Dussehra and Diwali festivals could support Indian jewellery demand. In China, gold traded at a premium of $10 per ounce after markets reopened following the Golden Week holiday, while Singapore premiums ranged between $0.50 and $1.50 per ounce. London's gold vault holdings increased 0.74% month on month to 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $1.2 trillion and equivalent to approximately 762,723 gold bars. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per troy ounce, citing continued central bank diversification, although tighter monetary policy could slow near-term gains. The bank warned that three additional US rate hikes could temporarily push prices towards $4,070 before recovering to around $4,200 by the end of 2026. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.83% to 17,548 contracts alongside declining prices, indicating increased bearish positioning. Support is placed at Rs. 147,820, followed by Rs. 147,190, while resistance stands at Rs. 149,535, above which prices could test Rs. 150,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147190-150620.

* Gold dropped as the US dollar climbed to an 18-month high ahead of key inflation reports.

* Fed’s Waller said recent rise in US bond yields reflects stronger economic growth rather than higher inflation expectations.

* BofA sees gold at $4,000/oz in 4Q26, expects average price of $4,813/oz in CY27

Silver

Silver settled 1.64% lower at Rs. 219,217, declining by Rs. 3,660 as the US dollar remained firm ahead of key inflation reports that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the recent rise in US bond yields reflects stronger economic growth rather than higher inflation expectations, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack advocated a relatively swift move towards a more restrictive monetary policy stance to control increasingly broad-based inflation. Despite recent weakness, delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference in Sorrento, Italy, projected silver prices could reach $97 per ounce over the next 12 months, compared with the prevailing level of around $61. Perth Mint silver sales surged 81.3% month on month to 605,408 ounces in September, the highest level since March, and increased approximately 4.6% year on year. London's silver vault holdings rose 0.5% month on month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $52.7 billion and equivalent to approximately 940,423 silver bars. According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the market is heading towards its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit, with 762 million ounces withdrawn from stocks since 2021. The global silver deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite an expected 2% decline in total demand. Industrial silver fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to increase 18%, supported by recovering US investment demand. Total global supply is projected to decline 2%. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 8.74% to 19,291 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating the formation of fresh short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 217,460, followed by Rs. 215,695, while resistance stands at Rs. 222,280. A sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs. 225,335, whereas continued selling may expose lower support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 215695-225335.

* Silver dropped as the US dollar held firm, while markets focused on upcoming US inflation prints.

* Fed’s Hammack said the US central bank should move "relatively quickly" to a more restrictive monetary policy stance to control inflation.

* Currently, traders see only a 19% chance of a Fed rate hike this month but are pricing in an 88% chance of a December increase.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.30% lower at Rs. 8,953, declining by Rs. 27 as markets assessed the prospect of additional Russian energy supplies reaching global buyers following US President Donald Trump's decision to temporarily ease restrictions on Russian diesel exports for six months. The move aims to support American consumers but has raised concerns about weakening sanctions against Russia. OPEC lowered its 2026 oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive time, reducing its projection to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, while raising its 2027 forecast as it expects deferred demand and inventory rebuilding to support consumption. OPEC also reported a sharp increase in September production across the wider OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia, which reported crude output of 8.372 million barrels per day, up more than 2 million barrels per day from August. The International Monetary Fund projected average oil prices of $96 per barrel in 2026 and $87 in 2027, above its previous forecasts of $89 and $78, respectively. In an intensified Middle East conflict scenario, prices could reach $130 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, potentially reducing global economic growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 and 0.5 percentage points in 2027. Meanwhile, US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, against expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels. Refinery utilisation rose 0.2 percentage points to 92.7%, while gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels to 204.7 million barrels. Distillate stocks remained broadly unchanged at 105.1 million barrels, and crude inventories at Cushing rose by 444,000 barrels. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 17.15% to 7,866 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating position unwinding. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 8,796, followed by Rs. 8,639, while resistance stands at Rs. 9,059. A sustained move above resistance could lift prices towards Rs. 9,165, whereas continued weakness may expose lower support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8639-9165.

* Crude oil dropped as markets assessed the prospect of additional Russian energy supplies reaching global buyers.

* OPEC raises 2027 oil demand view, citing need to rebuild stocks

* In a scenario of an intensified Middle East war, oil prices would reach $130/bbl in Q1 2027 – IMF

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 3.57% higher at Rs. 313, gaining Rs. 10.8 as declining US production and supply disruptions supported prices. According to financial firm LSEG, average natural gas output across the US Lower 48 states fell to 110.6 billion cubic feet per day in October so far, compared with record highs of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September. Daily production was expected to decline to approximately 107.1 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, marking an eight-month low, amid production shut-ins associated with Hurricane Isaias, force majeure incidents and pipeline disruptions across Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and other regions. Meanwhile, average gas flows to nine major US liquefied natural gas export facilities declined to 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September and a record 18.8 billion cubic feet per day in April. International prices remained elevated, with European gas trading at $28 per million British thermal units and Asian benchmark prices reaching $26 per million British thermal units. US natural gas inventories increased by 85 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 2, 2026, exceeding preliminary estimates of 79 billion cubic feet and marking the largest weekly injection since late June. Total inventories rose to 3.500 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.6% below year earlier levels. The Energy Information Administration projected US dry gas production would increase from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 112.2 billion in 2026 and 116.1 billion in 2027. Domestic consumption is forecast to rise from 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 92.4 billion in 2026 and 93.8 billion in 2027. Average US liquefied natural gas exports are also projected to increase to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion in 2027. Technically, natural gas is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 20.93% to 27,486 contracts alongside rising prices, indicating the closure of existing short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 302.3, followed by Rs. 291.6, while resistance stands at Rs. 318.7. A sustained move above resistance could push prices towards Rs. 324.4, whereas a decline below support may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 291.6-324.4.

* Natural gas gained amid a drop in daily output to an eight-month low.

* Average gas output slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.6 bcfd so far in October.

* About 0.5 bcfd of Gulf output remained shut-in Monday after Hurricane Isaias

Copper

Copper settled 0.54% lower at Rs. 1,416.75, declining by Rs. 7.7 as the US dollar hovered near an 18-month high amid escalating Middle East tensions and increased safe-haven demand. Supply concerns provided some support after Chilean state-owned miner Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a landslide, while a strike at Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine continued amid negotiations with two unions. London Metal Exchange copper inventories declined by 1,625 tonnes to 232,275 tonnes, while the cash contract premium over the three-month forward contract remained elevated at $99 per tonne, although it had nearly halved from a peak of $181.50. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored copper inventories increased by 20,000 tonnes from the end of September to 58,744 tonnes. Copper production trends remained mixed in Chile, with Codelco's August output rising nearly 9% year on year to 101,700 tonnes, while production at BHP-controlled Escondida fell 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi output declined 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. According to the International Copper Study Group, the global refined copper market recorded a deficit of 51,000 tonnes in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June. However, the market maintained a cumulative surplus of 32,000 tonnes during the first seven months of the year, compared with a surplus of 157,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Global refined copper production reached 2.41 million tonnes in July, against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. China's unwrought copper and copper product imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January to August imports fell 6.7% year on year to 3.30 million tonnes. Copper concentrate imports also decreased to 19.49 million tonnes from 20.06 million tonnes a year earlier. Technically, copper is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.04% to 7,451 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating the unwinding of existing positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 1,413.2, followed by Rs. 1,409.7, while resistance stands at Rs. 1,422.4. A sustained move above resistance could push prices towards Rs. 1,428.1, whereas continued selling may expose lower support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1409.7-1428.1.

* Copper dropped as dollar hovered near an 18-month high, underpinned by safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

* Supply concerns remained in focus after Chile's Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a landslide.

* LME copper stocks declined by 1,625 tons to 232,275 tons, leaving inventories outside the US tight

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.98% lower at Rs. 416.35, declining by Rs. 4.1 as the US dollar approached an 18-month high, supported by elevated oil prices and expectations of tighter monetary policy. Downside pressure also emerged after the global refined zinc market shifted into a surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, as supply slightly exceeded demand. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, global zinc demand increased 0.56% to 1.177 million tonnes, marking its first expansion after three consecutive months of contraction, while refined zinc production rose 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes. However, persistent supply constraints provided some underlying support, with global zinc mine production declining 8% year on year to approximately 995,000 tonnes in July, marking the fifth consecutive monthly contraction and the steepest decline since May 2024. Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year on year during the first half of 2026 amid high energy costs and limited raw material availability. Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands further raised concerns about potential production disruptions. Meanwhile, China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September 2026, although smelter output exceeded expectations as some major plants avoided anticipated production cuts. China's zinc production had also fallen 1.8% year on year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. In contrast, Japan's Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 tonnes of refined zinc during the second half of its 2026 fiscal year, representing a 32% increase year on year. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored zinc inventories increased 1.8% from the previous release on September 30, indicating some improvement in available stocks. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.06% to 2,088 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating the formation of fresh short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 414.5, followed by Rs. 412.5, while resistance stands at Rs. 419.7. A sustained move above resistance could push prices towards Rs. 422.9, whereas continued selling may expose lower support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 412.5-422.9.

* Zinc dropped as global zinc market shifted into a modest surplus in July, as refined supply slightly exceeded demand.

* In July, the global zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 mt.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.8% from last release on Sep 30.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 2.05% lower at Rs. 324.8, declining by Rs. 6.8 as easing passage restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz improved connectivity for Gulf smelters and reduced concerns over regional supply disruptions. Expectations of rising production from Indonesia and increasing Chinese exports further pressured prices, although declining visible inventories continued to provide some underlying support. Indonesia's aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year. Citi projected the global aluminium market would shift from a deficit of 941,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 1.8 million tonnes in 2027 as supply outside China expands. Macquarie also reduced its estimate of the 2026 global market deficit to 820,000 tonnes, citing faster than expected restarts in Middle Eastern production, and forecast average aluminium prices of $3,050 per tonne in 2027 compared with $3,325 in 2026. Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October to December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production declined 1.5% year on year in August, while Gulf Cooperation Council production plunged 43% to 299,000 tonnes. In contrast, Chinese refined aluminium production increased 3% year on year to a record 3.87 million tonnes, supported by record daily output. Production rose 7% in Russia and Eastern Europe and 2% in Asia excluding China, while North American output declined 1.5%. Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminium inventories fell 7.8% from the September 30 release, with stocks declining by 57,244 tonnes, while London Metal Exchange inventories decreased by 15,575 tonnes. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis reached 643,000 tonnes in July 2026, up 18.6% year on year but down 9.6% month on month. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 16.76% to 3,910 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating the unwinding of existing positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 322.3, followed by Rs. 319.9, while resistance stands at Rs. 328.8. A sustained move above resistance could push prices towards Rs. 332.9, whereas continued weakness may expose lower support levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 319.9-332.9.

* Aluminium fell as some easing in passage restrictions in Hormuz has reconnected Gulf smelters to the world.

* New supply from Indonesia is also ramping up, with exports topping 150,000 tons in August.

* Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.8% from last release on Sep 30

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.32% higher at Rs. 24,424, gaining Rs. 78 amid renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Stockholders have become reluctant to liquidate inventories following earlier selling phases, while concerns over deficient rainfall, El Niño risks and potential yield losses have supported prices. Karnataka's joint drought survey reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 188.24 crore, against total state cultivation of approximately 18,000–20,000 hectares. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. Despite these developments, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, compared with over 20 lakh bags last season, indicating a reduced supply buffer. Although industry estimates project India's turmeric production to increase approximately 15% in 2026, supported by a 20% expansion in acreage, weather conditions during crop development remain crucial for determining final yields. European Union maximum residue limit regulations have also increased scrutiny of non-integrated pest management compliant lots, while rising demand for certified turmeric is supporting premiums for compliant stocks. India's turmeric exports declined 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April to July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Shipments to Turkey surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, while exports to Sri Lanka rose 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria increased 983% to 69 tonnes. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices closed at Rs. 22,653.75, gaining 0.57%. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 4.31% to 15,120 contracts alongside rising prices, indicating the formation of fresh long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 23,868, followed by Rs. 23,314, while resistance stands at Rs. 25,138. A sustained move above resistance could push prices towards Rs. 25,854, whereas a break below support may trigger further weakness.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 23314-25854.

* Turmeric gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling, getting support from tight spot supply.

* Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation

* Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 22653.75 Rupees gained by 0.57 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 1.24% lower at Rs. 25,985, declining by Rs. 325 due to profit booking after recent gains, as traders assessed upcoming sowing prospects, export demand and domestic stock availability. Prices had earlier received support from tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds, declining arrivals at Unjha and Rajasthan markets, and farmers withholding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period. However, aggressive farmer selling to generate cash flow, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice grinders limited further upside. Estimates indicate India's cumin production could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan output at 48–50 lakh bags. International production prospects also remain important, with adverse weather reportedly reducing China's cumin production estimate to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. Nevertheless, improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria could increase competition for Indian exporters, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to create logistical uncertainties. India's jeera exports declined 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026 from 13,779 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April to July fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes. Shipments to Singapore surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, while exports to Libya increased 450% to 341 tonnes. In contrast, cumulative exports to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes from 6,066 tonnes, highlighting weakness in a major destination. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices closed at Rs. 25,614.70, declining 0.35%. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest increasing 2.24% to 8,910 contracts alongside falling prices, indicating the formation of fresh short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 25,670, followed by Rs. 25,360, while resistance stands at Rs. 26,420. A sustained move above resistance could push prices towards Rs. 26,860, whereas a break below support may extend the decline.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 25360-26860.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring festival demand.

* Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

* Reports of improved production prospects in secondary origins like Turkey and Syria are starting to weigh on Indian export premiums.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25614.7 Rupees dropped by -0.35 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views