Commodity Daily Insights 13th October 2026 By - HDFC Securities Ltd
GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP
Gold prices held near $4,175 an ounce with a positive bias as lower Treasury yields offset pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar ahead of key inflation data. Market participants are focused on this week’s U.S. inflation readings for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. The CPI report is due on Wednesday, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday. Markets are currently pricing in around an 80% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month, while the probability of a December rate hike stands near 88%.
The dollar index remained close to an 18-month high reached in the previous session, keeping dollardenominated metals relatively expensive for holders of other currencies. Geopolitical developments also remained in focus, with the U.S. considering joining Saudi Arabia in its campaign against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, while the recently announced Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” has already faced reported violations. Gold is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with the upcoming U.S. inflation data expected to provide the next major directional trigger. From a technical perspective, the $4,050–$4,100 zone appears to offer strong support, where bargain buying could emerge.
A sustained move below this zone would weaken the near-term outlook; however, as long as prices hold above support, buying on dips with controlled risk remains preferable. Crude oil prices fell below $93 a barrel on Tuesday, ending a three-session winning streak as markets weighed improving fuel supplies against escalating geopolitical tensions. Russia partially lifted its diesel export restrictions on October 10 following an agreement with the U.S., helping ease supply constraints in global fuel markets.
However, geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated after U.S. lawmakers questioned whether the agreement between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin conflicts with U.S. restrictions on Russian energy imports. Focus now shifts to this week’s OPEC and IEA monthly reports for fresh insights into global demand and supply fundamentals.
Copper is facing near-term pressure from uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, while tightening concentrate supply provides fundamental support. Natural gas remains sensitive to weather forecasts, with warmer conditions limiting early heating demand.
Gold
• Trading Range: 146800 to 152500
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Gold Mini Nov Fut at 148025-148050 SL 147450 Target 149050/149900
Silver
• Trading Range: 222900 to 230700
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Nov Fut at 224450-242475 SL 222900 Target 226480/227500
Crude Oil
• Trading Range: 8525 to 9050
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Crude Oil Oct Fut at 8875-8880 SL 8965 Target 8787 / 8705
Natural Gas
• Trading Range: 287 to 309
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Natural Gas Oct Fut at 304-304.5 SL 309 Target 297.80/294
Copper
• Trading Range: 1406 to 1435
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Copper Oct Fut at 1414-1414.50 SL 1409.5 Target 1422 /1426.8
Zinc
• Trading Range: 412 to 429
• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Oct Fut at 417.0- 417.50 SL 414.0 Target 421.8/424.0
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