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Gold

Gold prices settled down 1.17% at Rs154,460, pressured by a hawkish shift in U.S. Federal Reserve expectations after Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that interest-rate hikes may be required if inflation fails to move convincingly toward the 2% target. Markets now see a 57% probability of a September Fed rate hike, up sharply from 36% before Warsh’s comments, strengthening the dollar and weighing on bullion. Meanwhile, upcoming U.S. labour-market data, including job openings, ADP employment, weekly jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls, could provide further clues on the Fed’s policy path and influence gold volatility. Geopolitical tensions remain supportive, as U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Iran’s Larak Island, marking the first known American strikes on Iran since late July. Despite the recent price weakness, speculative positioning remained firm, with CFTC data showing COMEX gold net long positions rising by 5,383 contracts to 151,315 contracts for the week ended August 25, the highest level in 11 months. Physical demand, however, showed signs of weakness, particularly in India, where gold discounts widened sharply to as much as $135 per ounce from $65 previously, marking the deepest discount in three months amid speculation that the government may reverse its recent import-duty increase. China also reported discounts of $2–5 per ounce, while Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan traded close to global benchmark prices. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes at end-June 2026, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, the market remains under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.65% to 11,637 contracts while prices declined Rs1,821, indicating additional short positioning. Gold has immediate support at Rs153,575, and a break below this level could trigger further weakness toward Rs152,695. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs155,400, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs156,345.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152695-156345.

* Gold dropped after Fed Chair Warsh signalled that interest rate hikes may be needed to contain inflation.

* Fed will "have work to do" if policymakers don't get the confidence they need that inflation is heading down to 2%, Warsh said.

* Markets currently see a 57% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, compared with 36% before Warsh's comments.

Silver

Silver prices settled down 1.21% at Rs233,841, pressured by hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who warned that inflation is not easing significantly and reiterated the need to restore inflation toward the 2% target. Markets are now pricing around a 57% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, up sharply from roughly 40% a week earlier, while July core inflation accelerated to 3.7%, keeping monetary policy expectations restrictive. Rising oil prices also weighed on sentiment after U.S. forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, increasing concerns over geopolitical and inflationary risks. Despite near-term pressure, silver fundamentals remain supportive as the global market is expected to record a structural deficit for the sixth consecutive year. The deficit is forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, even as total demand is projected to decline 2%. Global silver supply is expected to fall 2%, while industrial fabrication may decline 3% to a four-year low, partly reflecting weaker growth prospects. In contrast, coin and bar demand is forecast to rise 18%, supported by stronger U.S. buying. Since 2021, around 762 million troy ounces have been drawn from inventories, increasing the risk of another liquidity squeeze. London vault holdings stood at 28,082 tonnes at end-June, up 1.7% month-on-month and valued at $53.1 billion. Speculative positioning remained positive, with COMEX silver net longs increasing by 2,467 contracts to 13,235 contracts for the week ended August 25. However, silver remains around 35% below its January record of $121.6 per ounce following the sharp 147% rally in 2025. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 35.98% to 4,005 contracts while prices declined Rs2,863, indicating profit-taking and weakening near-term momentum. Support is placed at Rs231,960, with a break below potentially opening Rs230,080. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs236,260, and a sustained move above this level could trigger a recovery toward Rs238,680.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 230080-238680.

* Silver dropped as hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh revived expectations for an imminent interest rate hike.

* Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed's 2% PCE target is a firm, fixed objective.

* Federal Reserve official Hammack said interest rates are the Fed's most straightforward policy tool.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled up 2.07% at Rs8,149, supported by escalating Middle East tensions as the United States and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in roughly a month, raising fresh concerns over crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers reportedly preparing to deploy mines in the strategic waterway, while Iran claimed attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan. Tehran also reported that a supertanker attempting to cross Hormuz’s southern route struck two mines, although the incident remains unconfirmed. Traders estimate that around 6–8 million barrels per day of crude, mainly from other Gulf producers, continues to transit Hormuz, keeping supply disruption risks elevated. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4%, this year, deeper than its previous 3.7 million bpd forecast, taking total supply to a projected 102.02 million bpd. The IEA cited ongoing uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and unrestricted transit through Bab el-Mandeb as key risks. U.S. crude inventories increased by 95,000 barrels to 428.9 million barrels in the week ended August 21, below expectations for a 597,000-barrel rise, while Cushing stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by 2.5 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels, indicating firm product demand. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking its fourth consecutive downward revision. Speculators’ combined Brent and WTI net long positions fell to a three-week low of 333,914 contracts, although NYMEX WTI net longs increased by 538 contracts to 104,573. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 4.51% to 10,008 contracts while prices gained Rs165, indicating recovery driven by position adjustment. Crude oil has support at Rs8,047, and a break below could weaken prices toward Rs7,945. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs8,256, while a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains toward Rs8,363.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7945-8363.

* Crude oil rose as tensions in ME escalated, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in roughly a month

* Global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day, or around 4%, this year, the International Energy Agency said.

* Net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil rose by 538 contracts to 104,573 contracts, hitting a four-week high.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled up 1.45% at Rs280.1, supported by a smaller-than-usual storage injection and forecasts for continued warm weather across the United States, particularly record-high temperatures in the Southwest through the weekend. The Commodity Weather Group expects above-average temperatures across nearly the entire country from September 1–10, which could sustain cooling demand and provide near-term support to prices. However, strong domestic production remains a key factor limiting the upside, with Lower 48 output averaging a record 111.4 bcfd in August, compared with 110.7 bcfd in July. U.S. energy firms added only 15 bcf of natural gas to storage for the week ended August 21, below market expectations of 20 bcf and well below the five-year average injection of 33 bcf. Total inventories rose to 3.184 tcf, standing 0.9% below year-ago levels but 5.5% above the five-year average. Gas flows to the nine major LNG export facilities eased slightly to 17.1 bcfd from 17.2 bcfd in July, although LNG demand is showing signs of recovery. The EIA expects U.S. dry gas production to rise from 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast to reach 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. LNG exports are projected to increase to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Speculative positioning improved, with NYMEX natural gas net short positions falling to 46,024 contracts, a seven-week low, while combined net shorts across the four major markets declined by 27,238 contracts to 39,598. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 13.39% to 35,492 contracts while prices gained Rs4, indicating recovery amid bearish position unwinding. Natural gas has support at Rs274.4, and a break below this level could drag prices toward Rs268.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs283.6, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs287.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 268.6-287.

* Natural gas gained supported by a smaller-than-usual storage injection and forecasts for continued warm weather.

* Gas prices also gained amid forecasts of record-high temperatures across the Southwest.

* Output in the Lower 48 states averaging a record 111.4 bcfd so far in August, up from 110.7 bcfd in July.

Copper

Copper prices settled down 0.12% at Rs1,389.7 as expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates offset concerns over tightening supply. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium increased expectations that the Fed may need to raise rates if inflation remains above target, strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy and weighing on industrial metals. Supply-side developments remained supportive, with total copper stocks in SHFE-monitored warehouses falling more than 19% last week and on-warrant inventories standing at 31,462 tonnes. Chilean copper production declined 9.4% year-on-year in July to 403,424 tonnes from 445,322 tonnes, pressured by severe storms in northern mining regions and maintenance at major facilities. The International Copper Study Group reported that the global refined copper market shifted to a 60,000-tonne deficit in June from a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the market remained in a 131,000-tonne surplus during the first six months of 2026 compared with 114,000 tonnes a year earlier. Global refined copper output stood at 2.37 million tonnes in June, while consumption reached 2.43 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports fell 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. Copper ore and concentrate imports declined 7.1% year-on-year in July to 2.38 million tonnes, with January-July imports down 1.8% to 16.99 million tonnes. Meanwhile, China’s refined copper production increased 1.3% year-on-year to 1.29 million tonnes in July. Speculators reduced COMEX copper net long positions by 2,780 contracts to 76,446 contracts, indicating some moderation in bullish positioning. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.77% to 11,467 contracts while prices fell Rs1.65, suggesting mild profit-taking pressure. Copper has support at Rs1,385.2, and a break below could trigger a decline toward Rs1,380.8. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs1,393.3, while a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs1,397.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1380.8-1397.

* Copper nudged down as bets of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates offset supply concerns.

* Copper output in Chile, fell 9.4% year-on-year in July hit by severe storms that struck mining operation areas.

* Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper by 2,780 contracts to 76,446 contracts – CFTC

Zinc

Zinc prices settled up 0.76% at Rs417.4, supported by tightening supply concerns, declining exchange inventories and improving economic sentiment, although higher prices are beginning to weigh on physical demand in China. Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored zinc inventories fell 1.5% from the previous Friday, while the premium of cash LME zinc over three-month futures widened sharply to $132 per tonne from zero in early July, reaching the highest level since December 2025 and highlighting nearby supply tightness. Heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China have raised concerns over mining and smelting disruptions, with production adjustments at a Southwest China mine expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could lower refined output by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Global mine supply also remains under pressure, with Glencore reporting first-half own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, while Boliden zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. Nexa reported second-quarter zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year-on-year, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000–235,000 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, equivalent to 48% of its annual guidance. The global refined zinc market shifted into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market remained in a 120,000-tonne surplus versus 74,000 tonnes a year earlier. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, indicating robust smelter operations. Chinese zinc exports have also helped ease concerns over shortages outside the country. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.68% to 2,676 contracts while prices gained Rs3.15, indicating strengthening bullish participation. Zinc has support at Rs413.8, and a break below could trigger a decline toward Rs410.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs419.4, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs421.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 410.1-421.3.

* Zinc prices gained supported by supply tightness outside China.

* Stockpiles of zinc in LME warehouses are down more than 20% over the past two months.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.5% from last Friday

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled up 0.43% at Rs347.1, supported by falling Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories and expectations of additional fiscal measures from China to strengthen economic growth, although concerns over slowing Chinese activity limited the upside. SHFE monitored aluminium inventories declined 3% from the previous Friday, while China’s Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, increasing expectations for further policy support to sustain economic momentum and meet the annual growth target. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports fell 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July, partly due to declining imports of Middle Eastern aluminium amid the Iran conflict. A global producer offered Japanese buyers an October-December premium of $310 per tonne, down 22% from the current quarter’s $395 premium. Supply concerns remained as Middle Eastern disruptions continued, with Gulf aluminium production plunging 44% year-on-year to 293,000 tonnes in July, while global primary aluminium output fell 1.7% to 6.16 million tonnes. However, the restart of Middle Eastern capacity and alternative shipping routes are limiting supply fears. EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter was operating at 18% capacity and is expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027, while Alba is also accelerating production recovery. Norsk Hydro reduced alumina output at Alunorte in Brazil to 50% of capacity due to lower natural gas availability, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes. China’s aluminium production rose 3.8% year-on-year to around 3.9 million tonnes in July, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis increased 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes. Cumulative exports during January-July reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.29% to 4,441 contracts while prices gained Rs1.5, indicating some recovery after recent weakness. Aluminium has support at Rs344.3, and a break below could test Rs341.6. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs348.7, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs350.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 341.6-350.4.

* Aluminium gained as aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3% from last Friday.

* Prices also gained supported by China pledging fiscal policy measures to strengthen economic growth.

* Global primary aluminium output in July fell 1.7% year on year to 6.16 million tonnes.
 

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled up 0.70% at Rs20,744, supported by a hand-to-mouth supply situation, lower-than-expected expansion in sowing across key growing regions and concerns that El Nino and deficient rainfall could affect the developing crop. Declining carry-forward stocks accumulated over the past three to four years have further tightened availability, with industry estimates placing current carry-forward stocks at around 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could reduce yields and provide additional price support. However, the upside remained capped as monsoon activity improved across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, while key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh filled, improving water availability during the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following improved rainfall, with crop conditions showing signs of recovery. European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits remain a key quality factor, with rejections of non-IPM compliant lots pressuring commercial-grade turmeric, while rising demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric supports compliant stocks. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window has increased near-term supply pressure, although stockists continue cautious buying amid structurally tighter availability. Export demand remains encouraging, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes a year earlier. During April-June, exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes, while shipments to China surged 2,710% to 2,108 tonnes and exports to Oman rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes. Strong growth was also recorded in Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, highlighting broad-based international demand. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric gained 0.61% to Rs20,101.75. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 0.23% to 36,660 contracts while prices gained Rs144, indicating recovery after recent weakness. Turmeric has support at Rs20,516, and a break below could test Rs20,290. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,004, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs21,266.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20290-21266.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact stoked fears of lower overall output.

* Prices were up due to deficient rain and fear of the next crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20101.75 Rupees gained by 0.61 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled up 1.34% at Rs21,185, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade high-purity supplies are shrinking faster than overall physical crop availability. Daily arrivals at major markets including Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline significantly, while outbreaks of blight disease in key Gujarat pockets have affected both crop quality and harvestable quantity. Production estimates indicate India’s cumin output may fall to 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. China’s production is also estimated lower at 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9–10 thousand tonnes, 10–11 thousand tonnes and 10–12 thousand tonnes respectively. However, the upside remained limited as farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather allowed faster harvesting and drying. Rising NCDEX warehouse stocks have reduced the urgency for spot procurement, and large spice grinders are avoiding bulk purchases, preferring hand-to-mouth buying. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also weighing on Indian export premiums. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and traditional demand, although European and North American buyers have returned for residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Despite the overall decline, cumulative exports to Singapore surged 1,040% to 2,198 tonnes, Oman rose 265% to 482 tonnes and Argentina increased 333% to 191 tonnes. In Unjha, spot jeera slipped 0.02% to Rs20,956.05. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 6.72% to 7,953 contracts while prices gained Rs280, indicating recovery supported by position unwinding. Jeera has support at Rs20,960, and a break below could test Rs20,720. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs21,430, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs21,660.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20720-21660.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20956.05 Rupees dropped by -0.02 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views