MCX Gold Faces Rs 159,000 Resistance, May Dip to Rs 154,000 - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is expected to face resistance near $4500 and dip towards $4400 level on strong dollar and rising U.S treasury yields. Further, traders increased their bets on an interest rate hike after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks on curbing inflationary pressure. According to CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 58% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, compared to 36% before Warsh's comments, and an 89% chance of a December increase. Meanwhile, safe haven buying and strong ETF inflows likely to limit its downside.
• MCX Gold October is expected to face resistance near Rs 159,000 and dip towards Rs 155,000 and Rs 154,000 level.
• MCX Silver December is expected to move in a wide range between Rs 235,000 and Rs 245,000 level. Only a move below Rs 235,000, it would dip towards Rs 231,500 level.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade lower on profit booking and strong dollar. Further, there are signs that a supply squeeze might be easing given the premium for spot copper over three-month futures has fallen. Meanwhile, stockpiles at LME inventory continued to decline. Investors await an announcement from the White House on plans for tariffs on imported refined copper.
• MCX Copper September is expected to face resistance near Rs 1400 level and dip towards Rs 1385 level. Only a move below Rs 1385 level, it will dip towards Rs 1380 - Rs1375 levels.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support above Rs 342 level and rise towards Rs 348 - Rs 352. Renewed tension in the Middle East would hurt supplies and provide support to prices. MCX Zinc September is likely to find support near Rs 408 level and rise towards Rs 420 level
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX crude oil is trading higher amid fresh attacks on Iran after a month. U.S. targeted Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iranian officials warned of further retaliation after reporting strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan. Renewed conflict between US and Iran would hurt oil flows through Start of Hormuz and keep oil prices elevated. Prices may find support on supply concerns from Russia. Further, depleting global crude oil and its derivative stocks would also provide support. Meanwhile, US deal with Venezuela will boost reserve and check upside in oil prices.
• MCX Crude oil September is expected to rise towards Rs 8300 as long as it holds above Rs 7850 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to find support near Rs 270 level and rise towards Rs 285 level.
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