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The Week That Was

• Comex Gold fell more than 3% last week after failing to close near the multi-month high of $4,697, as the hawkish tilt from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh weighed on the precious metal. Traders increased their bets on a September rate hike after Warsh said the Fed will “have work to do” if policymakers are not confident that underlying inflation is returning to its 2% target. The comments marked his strongest indication yet that interest rate hikes may be needed to ease price pressures. Traders now see a 58% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, up from 36% before Warsh’s comments, and an 89% chance of a December increase, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

• Comex Silver also settled nearly 4% lower last week, around $66, after failing to sustain levels near the multi-week high of $70 amid Warsh’s hawkish tone. The greenback rallied nearly 1% last week, denting the appeal of the white metal. Additionally, silver prices in India plunged this week as demand fell sharply amid market speculation that the government could consider rolling back a recent hike in import duties.

• Nymex Crude oil snapped its two-week winning streak, ending nearly 4% lower at around $84, as traders increasingly viewed the Iran situation as an economic and sanctions confrontation rather than an imminent threat to physical supply. Improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the proposed Iran–Oman corridor further reduced perceived supply risks. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, although Tehran emphasised that this does not imply an immediate reopening.

• Comex Copper settled flat at around the $6.60 level. Prices remain range-bound amid mixed news flows. The metal pulled back from its record high on signs that the supply squeeze may be easing, as the premium for spot copper over three-month futures has narrowed. However, global inventories continue to decline, keeping the market tight. The market remains on edge ahead of an announcement from the White House on plans for tariffs on imported refined copper. The tariff uncertainty has triggered increased flows of copper into the U.S. in recent months.

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold snapped its winning streak, with prices plunging nearly 4% last week after a powerful rally from Rs 1,40,000 to around Rs 1,64,000. The recent decline appears to be a normal and healthy pause following the sharp move higher. As long as gold holds above the key support level around Rs 1,52,000, the overall uptrend remains intact, making this dip look more like a cooling-off period before the next move higher.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Silver around Rs 2,34,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 2,30,000 and targets of Rs 2,42,000 and Rs 2,50,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,36,000.

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver snapped its three-week winning streak as prices failed to sustain levels near the multi-month high of Rs 2,48,000 and settled nearly 4% lower at around Rs 2,36,000. The nearterm trend remains positive as long as prices sustain above Rs 2,30,000, which is an important demand zone. Additionally, prices are trading above the 9- and 20-day EMAs, a bullish sign. Any correction in prices can be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Silver around Rs 2,34,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 2,30,000 and targets of Rs 2,42,000 and Rs 2,50,000.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 2,36,000.

MCX CrudeOil

Technical Outlook:

Over the past three weeks, MCX Crude Oil Futures transitioned from bullish expansion into a tactical distribution phase, encountering heavy supply near the Rs 8,400 ceiling. The ensuing mean-reversion triggered a deep intra-week liquidity sweep down to Rs 7,602, aggressively stress-testing the 9- and 20-week moving average confluence. However, robust dip-buying materialised at these lows, pulling the momentum RSI back to a neutralised 51.5 and forcing a settlement near Rs 7,987. The long lower shadow indicates resilient structural support; provided the market sustains this dynamic buffer, the underlying constructive framework remains viable despite near-term topside fatigue.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 7,800, with a stop-loss below Rs 7,300 and targets of Rs 8,400 and Rs 9,000.

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper settled on a flat note in the last week. Prices pulled back from the multi-month high of Rs 1,410 on account of profit booking, while prices remained consolidated within the Rs 1,360– 1,410 range. Going forward, a decisive breakout from the current range will be crucial for the next directional move. A sustained breakout above Rs 1,410 could strengthen bullish momentum and drive prices towards Rs 1,460. Strong support remains placed at Rs 1,360.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 1,410 with a stoploss below Rs 1,380 and targets of Rs 1,440 and Rs 1,460.

Current Market Price (CMP): Rs 1,392.

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