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Gold 

Gold prices experienced a decline of -0.75% to reach 57,846 in response to recent economic data. This drop was influenced by the U.S. economy growing as expected, but consumers cutting their spending more than anticipated. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed a 2.1% expansion in second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in line with expectations. However, consumer spending was sharply revised down to just 0.8%, significantly lower than the 1.7% estimate. Additionally, pending home sales in the United States took a significant hit in August, falling by 7.1% month-over-month, far surpassing the market's projected 0.8% decrease. On the gold front, holdings at the SPDR Gold Trust dipped by 3.75 tonnes, marking the third consecutive decline and reaching a total of 872.77 tonnes, the lowest level seen since August 2019. Conversely, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong surged by approximately 51.4% in August compared to the previous month, highlighting increased demand from the world's leading gold consumer. From a technical perspective, the gold market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 7.88% to settle at 15,348. Gold prices experienced a significant drop of -437 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 57,620 and 57,395, while resistance is expected at 58,190. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 58,535.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 57395-58535.
* Gold dropped after U.S. economy grew, while consumers curtailed their spending more than expected.
* The final reading of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product showed that the economy expanded by 2.1%.
*Pending home sales in the United States plummeted by 7.1% month-over-month in August 2023


Silver 
Silver prices showed a modest increase of 0.07%, settling at 70,600, as investors digested recent economic data and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initial jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected at 204,000, indicating a strong labor market. The second-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 2.1%. However, corporate profits in the U.S. only rose by 0.5%, below initial estimates. The U.S. Federal Reserve, in its recent announcement, kept interest rates unchanged but hinted at another rate hike this year and fewer rate cuts for the following year. Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, emphasized the need for further rate hikes to address inflation concerns. Additionally, U.S. durable goods orders increased in August, and business spending on equipment appeared to be picking up momentum. Meanwhile, German consumer price inflation dropped from 6.1% to 4.5% year-on-year in September 2023. From a technical standpoint, the silver market experienced fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 4.65% to reach 23,825. Silver prices increased by 51 rupees. Key support levels are at 70,220 and 69,845, while resistance is expected at 71,060. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 71,525.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 69845-71525.
* Silver steadied as investors were digesting a batch of economic data
* Initial jobless claims rose by less than expected to 204 thousand last week, adding to signs of a strong labor market
* Fed’s Kashkari said he is not yet ready to say rates have been lifted enough to get inflation back to the 2% target.


Crude oil 
Crude oil prices took a 2.17% dip, closing at 7,623 due to profit-taking, following a surge driven by unexpected drops in crude inventories. U.S. government data revealed a more substantial than anticipated 2.2 million barrel decrease in crude stockpiles, underlining supply constraints linked to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Specifically, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub declined by 943,000 barrels, hitting their lowest point since July 2022. The ongoing drop in Cushing's stockpiles has raised concerns about the quality and operational levels of remaining oil at the hub. Additionally, worries persist about tight oil supplies heading into winter, driven by Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ implementing production cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day until year-end. On another note, Russian President Vladimir Putin took action to stabilize retail fuel prices in response to a recent spike attributed to increased exports. From a technical standpoint, the market experienced long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -32.32% to 7,682. Crude oil prices fell by -169 rupees. Key support levels are identified at 7,530 and 7,436, while resistance is likely at 7,801. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 7,978.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7436-7978.
* Crude oil prices fell on profit booking after prices rallied after drop in crude inventories.
* US crude stockpiles fall as Cushing continues to drain -EIA
* Cushing's low levels spur quality, operational, price worries


Natural gas
Natural gas prices inched up by 0.25%, closing at 244.7, driven by a decrease in output and stronger demand projections for the week. This positive movement occurred despite a slightly larger-than-expected increase in storage last week and forecasts of milder weather and reduced demand in the following week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a storage build of 90 billion cubic feet (bcf), slightly higher than the 88-bcf forecast. However, this was still less than the same week last year and the five-year average. Notably, gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states decreased in September compared to August, contributing to the market dynamics. Weather experts anticipate above-average temperatures through October 6, followed by a return to near-normal conditions from October 7 to 13. As a result, gas demand, including exports, is expected to drop from 95.6 bcfd this week to 95.1 bcfd next week, primarily due to reduced gas consumption by power generators for air conditioning. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed fresh buying interest, with open interest increasing by 1.61% to reach 19,928. Natural gas prices rose by 0.6 rupees. Key support levels are at 240.1 and 235.5, while resistance is expected at 248.8. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 252.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 235.5-252.9.
* Natural gas gains on a decline in output, forecasts for more demand
* That increase came despite a slightly bigger-than-expected storage build last week
* EIA said utilities added 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Sept. 22.



Copper
Copper prices saw a solid 1.47% increase, closing at 719.7, as traders squared their positions ahead of a lengthy public holiday in China. Notably, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses fell by a significant 28.0% compared to the previous Friday, indicating a reduction in available supply. In contrast, copper stockpiles in LME-registered warehouses have surged nearly threefold since July, reaching 167,850 tons, the highest level since May 2022. Chile's Codelco, one of the world's largest copper producers, announced that copper production is expected to rebound next year after a decline in 2022, primarily due to delays in key mine extension projects. Codelco's Chairman, Maximo Pacheco, emphasized the importance of not delaying ongoing development projects. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market reported a deficit of 19,000 metric tons in July, a decrease from the 72,000 metric tons deficit in June. However, for the first seven months of the year, the market remained in a surplus of 215,000 metric tons, compared to a 254,000 metric tons deficit during the same period the previous year. From a technical perspective, the copper market saw short covering, with open interest dropping by -17.7% to settle at 7,153. Copper prices increased by 10.45 rupees. Key support levels are at 711 and 702.1, while resistance is expected at 724.9. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 729.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 702.1-729.9.
* Copper prices rose after traders squared positions ahead of a long public holiday in China.
* Shanghai warehouse copper stocks down 28.0%
* LME Copper stockpiles have nearly tripled since July to 167,850 tons, the highest since May 2022.


Zinc
Zinc prices surged by a notable 3.54% to reach 229.9, influenced by daily data revealing a decline in exchange stocks and a weaker U.S. dollar. Zinc stocks in LME-registered warehouses dropped to 57,225 metric tons, the lowest since late May, following fresh cancellations of 19,225 metric tons. These cancellations signal an intent to remove metal from the LME system, though it can be re-warranted. Meanwhile, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses plummeted by 30% compared to the previous Friday. China, a major consumer of metals, embarked on a week-long holiday to celebrate the mid-autumn festival and National Day starting from September 29. In terms of the global zinc market, the surplus shrank to 17,400 metric tons in July from 75,900 tons the previous month, according to data from the ILZSG. Notably, China has re-entered the international market for refined zinc imports after a period of reduced activity. In July, China imported 76,800 metric tons of zinc, marking the highest monthly intake since April 2019. Despite increased domestic zinc production, the Shanghai market continues to grapple with low inventory and tight time-spreads.From a technical perspective, the zinc market experienced fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 39.88% to reach 5,830. Zinc prices climbed by 7.85 rupees. Key support levels are at 223.9 and 217.9, while resistance is expected at 233.5. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 237.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 217.9-237.1.
* Zinc prices rallied after daily data showed a decline in exchange stocks
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30% from last Friday
* On-warrant zinc stocks in LME fell to 57,225 metric tons, lowest since late May, after fresh cancellations of 19,225 metric tons.



Aluminium
Aluminium prices experienced a 0.97% increase, closing at 207.45, driven by a substantial 38.9% surge in China's aluminium imports in August compared to the previous year. This rise was fueled by increased purchases due to low domestic stocks and improved demand prospects. In contrast, Japan's primary aluminium imports dropped by 16% in August, continuing a trend of weak demand in the construction sector and sluggish exports. For the first eight months of the year, Japan's imports of primary aluminium ingots were down 30% from the previous year. To address these market conditions, some Japanese aluminium buyers negotiated a premium of $97 per metric ton over the benchmark price for shipments in October-December, representing a 24% decrease from the prior quarter. Despite the decline in imports, aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports remained high at 360,700 metric tons by the end of August, exceeding the considered appropriate range of 250,000-300,000 tons. From a technical standpoint, aluminium witnessed short covering, with open interest decreasing by -2.22% to reach 3,794. Aluminium prices increased by 2 rupees. Key support levels are at 205.7 and 203.9, while resistance is likely at 208.7. A potential breakout above this resistance could lead to a test of 209.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-209.9.
* Aluminium gains as China's Aug aluminium imports rise on demand hopes, thin stock
* Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay global producers a premium of $97 per metric ton
* Japan's primary aluminium imports fall 30% in Jan – Aug due to slow demand


Cottoncandy 
Cottoncandy prices rose by 0.3%, closing at 61080. Reports of a pink bollworm infestation in Haryana's cotton belt contributed to the uptick. However, the global cotton industry is grappling with reductions in both production and consumption, as indicated in the 2023-24 Cotton outlook. The U.S. cotton projections for 2023/24 anticipate higher beginning stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks. The season-average price for upland cotton is projected to be 80 cents per pound for 2023/24. The 2023/24 world cotton projections also point to lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month. India is expected to produce 330-340 lakh bales (each 170 kg) of cotton in the upcoming 2023-2024 cotton season starting on October 1, with sowing surpassing 12.7 million hectares. In the current season, 335 lakh bales of cotton have arrived in the market, with some new harvest coming from Karnataka and northern cotton-growing states. Cotton picking in Telangana is expected to gain momentum in the second or third week of November. The center has assessed the pre-sowing price forecast for cotton in 2023-24, expecting normal rainfall and an increase in crop area. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed fresh buying, with a 10.48% increase in open interest, settling at 116. Cottoncandy has support at 60980, with the potential to test 60870 below. Resistance is expected at 61200, and a move above this level could lead to prices testing 61310.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 60870-61310.
* Cotton gains on reports the cotton belt of Haryana, is witnessing an attack by pink bollworm.
* India is expected to see production of 330 lakh to 340 lakh bales in 2023-2024 that begins on October 1.
* China's cotton production was lowered to 5.9 million metric tons on reduced planted area for 2023/24
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 28992.2 Rupees dropped by -0.33 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices witnessed a significant increase of 2.26%, closing at 13376. This uptrend was driven by low-level buying after prices had previously dropped, primarily due to an improved production outlook. Market participants sold off their positions in anticipation of increased supplies in the coming months. The subdued demand is mainly attributed to the lower quality of the produce in the market. However, the market may find support from better export prospects, as demand for turmeric has increased both in developed and developing countries. Farmers have shifted their focus, leading to expectations of a 20-25% decrease in turmeric sowing this year, particularly in states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jul 2023 saw a significant rise of 15.05% compared to the same period in 2022. While July exports dropped compared to June, there was a notable year-on-year increase. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the southwest monsoon is set to withdraw over the next few weeks. This year's monsoon has displayed mixed patterns, with a late onset and variable rainfall. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with a -2.57% drop in open interest, settling at 13,855. Turmeric now has support at 12932, with the potential for testing 12488 below. Resistance is expected at 13660, and a breakout above this level could lead to prices testing 13944.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12488-13944.
*Turmeric rose on low level buying after prices dropped driven by improved production outlook.
* Market participants offloaded their positions in anticipation of rise in supplies in coming months
* Demand has been subdued at prevailing levels as most of the produce are coming in the market are inferior quality.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13327.1 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.


Jeera
Jeera (cumin) prices saw a slight decline of -0.08%, closing at 58870, primarily due to profit booking after recent gains driven by limited local supplies. The market is experiencing increased festive demand, and the scarcity of quality crops is prompting millers to buy on price dips. However, Indian jeera prices remain competitive globally, which is dampening overseas demand. Chinese purchases of Indian jeera have decreased in recent months, affecting overall Indian exports. The possibility of China buying Indian cumin in October-November adds further uncertainty to market dynamics. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is expected to surpass 85 lakh bags this year, while the likely supply is estimated at 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports have declined during Apr-Jul 2023, dropping by 7.99% compared to the same period in 2022. July saw a significant drop in exports compared to June and July of the previous year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the southwest monsoon is set to withdraw over the next few weeks. This year, the monsoon has been somewhat erratic, with a late onset and fluctuating rainfall patterns. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a -5.18% drop in open interest, settling at 4,449. Jeera has support at 58230, with the potential to test 57580 below. Resistance is expected at 59460, and a breakout above this level could push prices to 60040.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 57580-60040.
* Jeera dropped amid profit booking after prices gained due to shrinking supplies in the local market.
* Increased festive demand and limited availability of quality crops in the market is prompting miller to buy
* However, sluggish export demand is still a major concern for Indian traders
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 59828.7 Rupees dropped by -0.14 percent.