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GOLD

Gold prices saw a modest increase of 0.16%, closing at 59752, driven by hawkish comments from policymakers at the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE). Concerns over the Israel-Hamas conflict negatively impacted bullion demand. The strengthened U.S. dollar and spiking Treasury yields, coupled with Powell's remarks on potential rate hikes, contributed to market dynamics. Powell acknowledged a slowdown in inflation, emphasizing the challenges in achieving a sustainable 2 percent rate. Despite a festival-related improvement in gold demand in India, higher prices led to slightly lower purchases in the main hub. This uptick, however, enabled dealers to reduce discounts. China's gold reserves increased to 71.20 million fine troy ounces by end-October. In Japan, gold traded with discounts or premiums, and in Hong Kong and Singapore, bullion was sold with varying premiums. From a technical perspective, the market is undergoing fresh buying with a 0.07% increase in open interest, settling at 10604. Gold prices rose by 93 rupees. Gold is supported at 59610, and a breach could test 59465 levels, while resistance is expected at 59840, with a potential move above leading to testing 59925.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 59465-59925.
* Gold steadied after a string of hawkish comments from Fed, ECB and BoE policymakers
* Waning concerns over the Israel-Hamas war also dented demand for bullion.
* Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the U.S. central bank "will not hesitate" to resume raising rates if it becomes appropriate.

 

SILVER

Silver prices remained unchanged at 70032, reflecting the impact of a stronger dollar and Treasury yields amid hawkish signals from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed uncertainty about inflation, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman hinted at potential rate hikes due to a robust economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari cautioned against premature declarations of victory over inflation. Easing concerns over Middle East conflicts diminished safe-haven demand for silver. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams highlighted the Fed's long-term policy improvement, emphasizing a shift from tactical decision-making to a strategic approach. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted progress in battling inflation and suggested attention would turn to the duration of keeping rates unchanged if this progress continues. Technically, the market experiences fresh selling with a 0.75% increase in open interest, settling at 24278, while prices remained unchanged at -1 rupees. Silver finds support at 69925, potentially testing 69815 if breached, and resistance is expected at 70185, with a move above targeting 70335.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 69815-70335.
* Silver remained in range amid hawkish signals from US Fed officials.
* Prices weakened as well as easing concerns over a wider geopolitical conflict in the Middle East reduced safe-haven demand for the metal.
* Fed Chair Powell said that the US central bank is “not confident” that it has done enough to bring down inflation.

 

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil concluded yesterday with a decrease of -0.23%, settling at 6455, as market focus shifted to the upcoming crucial meeting of OPEC and its allies on November 26. This meeting will determine the group's decision on production levels. Attention is particularly on whether Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary 1 million barrel-per-day cut set to expire at the end of the year. China's October crude oil imports rose by 13.52% compared to the previous year, reaching 48.97 million metric tons or 11.53 mbpd, driven by increased purchases and expanded domestic fuel demand during the Golden Week holiday. OPEC+ emphasizes a proactive and preventative approach for a stable crude market, according to its general secretary. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Venezuela's crude oil production will modestly increase to an average of 900,000 bpd by the end of 2024 under eased U.S. sanctions. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation with a -0.27% drop in open interest, settling at 8842. Crude oil prices decreased by -15 rupees. Support for Crudeoil is identified at 6438, with a potential test of 6422 if breached, while resistance is expected at 6475, with a move above potentially testing 6496.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6422-6496.
* Crude oil dropped as market attention turns to a key meeting of OPEC and its allies this month
* Venezuela's oil output to rise modestly after US sanctions relief – EIA
* China October crude oil imports up 13.5% on last year
 

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas concluded yesterday with a slight decrease of -0.2%, settling at 253.8. This dip is attributed to record output and forecasts predicting mild weather until late November, curbing heating demand and allowing utilities to continue injecting gas into storage. November has seen an uptick in natural gas production following a record high in October, and current storage levels are approximately 6% above the typical seasonal average. Anticipated warmer weather until mid-November further diminishes heating demand. While gas flows to U.S. LNG export facilities are increasing, they remain below the peak observed in April. Exports to Mexico have declined, but expectations rise with the launch of New Fortress Energy's LNG exports. In terms of numbers, the average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from the record of 104.2 bcfd in October. LSEG forecasts a drop in U.S. gas demand to 101.3 bcfd next week due to milder weather, followed by an increase to 108.9 bcfd as colder weather boosts heating use. Technically, the market experiences long liquidation with a -0.07% drop in open interest, settling at 37111. Prices decreased by -0.5 rupees. Natural gas finds support at 253.1, with a potential test of 252.4 if breached, while resistance is anticipated at 254.3, with a move above potentially testing 254.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 252.4-254.8.
* Natural gas dropped on record output and forecasts for mild weather to continue through late November
* Natural gas production has been on the rise in November, following a record high in October.
* Additionally, there is currently about 6% more gas in storage than is typical for this time of year.

 

COPPER

Copper concluded yesterday with a marginal increase of 0.01%, settling at 697.8. The market faced pressure from a rebounding dollar, inventory fluctuations, and uncertainties in demand from major consumers. The dollar's rise, coupled with low bond demand in the US, tightened financial conditions, affecting manufacturers dependent on US economic conditions. China's demand outlook remained pessimistic due to contracting manufacturing PMI figures and deflation in October, despite the government's efforts to boost copper-intensive infrastructure projects. In China, copper inventories decreased by 14.0% from the previous Friday, but the country's economic data presented a mixed picture. While manufacturing activity and exports slowed, unexpected growth in imports, including a 10-month high in copper imports, was noted. Globally, the refined copper market showed a deficit of 33,000 metric tons in August, compared to a 30,000 metric tons deficit in July. However, the market was in a surplus of 99,000 metric tons for the first 8 months of the year, contrasting with a 313,000 metric tons deficit in the same period last year, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying with a 0.03% increase in open interest, settling at 7341. Copper prices increased by 0.05 rupees. Support for Copper is identified at 697.1, with a potential test of 696.3 if breached, while resistance is expected at 698.5, with a move above potentially testing 699.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 696.3-699.1.
* Copper settled flat pressured by a rebound for the dollar and demand uncertainties.
* Demand in China maintained its pessimistic outlook, dragged by contractionary manufacturing PMI figures
* China's consumer prices swung back into contraction and factory-gate deflation persisted in October

 

ZINC

Zinc concluded yesterday with a 0.51% increase, settling at 228.35. The rise is attributed to supply concerns arising from incidents like the fire at Russia's Ozernoye mine and recent suspensions in U.S. mines, leading to reduced available stock. Additionally, LME zinc inventories have more than halved since early September. Nyrstar's plan to temporarily close two U.S. zinc mines by the end of November due to weak prices and inflation impact further intensified supply concerns. China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in October, indicating a fragile economic recovery. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group revealed a shift in the global refined zinc market, heading for a surplus of 248,000 metric tons this year, contrary to the previously projected deficit of 45,000 tons. The world demand for refined zinc in 2023 is expected to increase by 1.1% to 13.59 million tons, lower than the April estimate of 13.80 million tons due to tight monetary conditions. In September, China's refined zinc output was 544,000 mt, a 3.31% month-on-month increase but below expectations. Technically, the market is undergoing short covering with a -0.19% drop in open interest, settling at 4647. Zinc prices increased by 1.15 rupees. Support for Zinc is identified at 226.8, potentially testing 225.2 if breached, while resistance is expected at 230.4, with a move above potentially testing 232.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 225.2-232.4.
* Zinc rose on concerns about supply after reports of a fire at a Russian mine project
* LME zinc inventories have more than halved since early September.
* Nyrstar said it planned to temporarily close two U.S. zinc mines at the end of November

 

ALUMINIUM

Aluminium closed with a modest 0.07% increase at 204.95, driven by a rebound in aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses. However, the market faced pressure from hawkish comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, dispelling expectations of a peak in interest rates, coupled with rising exchange stocks. Powell and other Fed officials expressed uncertainty in tackling inflation and signaled readiness to tighten policy further if necessary. China's economic performance presented a mixed picture, with October seeing a slowdown in manufacturing and exports but unexpected growth in imports, including a 10-month high in copper imports. Additionally, aluminium inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses rose by 10% in a week. China's economic outlook faced challenges as domestic demand struggled, leading to deflation at the factory gate. Despite this, Chinese officials emphasized plans to open the economy, aiming to boost imports of commodities and services to nearly $17 trillion in the next five months. Technically, the market underwent short covering with a -0.24% drop in open interest, settling at 2884. Aluminium prices increased by 0.15 rupees. Support for Aluminium is identified at 204.7, with a potential test of 204.5 if breached, while resistance is expected at 205.1, with a move above potentially testing 205.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.5-205.3.
* Aluminium settled flat as stocks in LME warehouses rebounded after arrivals
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 10%
* Pressure seen on prices as hawkish comments from Fed Powell dashed expectations of a peak in interest rates.
 

COTTONCANDY

Cottoncandy settled unchanged at 56900 due to factors impacting India's cotton production, with a projected 7.5% decline in 2023/24 to 29.5 million bales. El Nino weather and reduced planting areas are contributing to the decrease. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) anticipates increased imports to 2.2 million bales, up from 1.25 million bales last year. The USDA's October WASDE report notes lower U.S. production at 12.8 million bales for 2023/24. Brazil is expected to surpass the U.S. in cotton production and exports. Australia's cotton exports to China surged in August to 61,319 metric tons, valued at $130 million. CAI's final estimate for India's 2022-23 cotton crop production is 31.8 million bales, slightly higher than the July estimate of 31.1 million bales. India's overall cotton production for the 2023-2024 season is projected to be between 330 lakh and 340 lakh bales. In the Rajkot spot market, cotton prices ended at 26908 Rupees, down by -0.2%. Technically, Cottoncandy is under long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 103 and prices at 56900. Support is identified at 56600, with a potential test of 56300 if breached, while resistance is likely at 57200, with a move above potentially testing 57500.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56300-57500.
* Cotton settled flat as India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* Imports could rise to 2.2 million bales in the marketing year that started on Oct. 1, up from the last year's 1.25 million bales
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26908 Rupees dropped by -0.2 percent.

 

TURMERIC

Turmeric prices rose by 0.71% to settle at 13606 due to potential yield losses from unfavorable weather. Slow buying ahead of new crops in Jan’24 limited the upside. Pressure was observed from improved crop conditions and expectations of stock releases. Crop readiness for harvest is projected for January to March. The IMD forecasted drier-than-average October, impacting crop growth. Current buying activity and decreasing supplies support price stability. Export opportunities have improved, with a 25% increase in turmeric exports. Anticipated 20–25% decline in seeding, particularly in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana. Turmeric exports rose by 11.51% at 82,939.35 tonnes during Apr-Aug 2023. Aug 2023 exports were 11,322.58 tonnes, down 18.20% from Jul 2023. In Nizamabad, the spot market saw prices end at 13445.65 Rupees, down by -0.7%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest gaining by 0.24% to settle at 12770. Prices are up by 96 rupees. Turmeric has support at 13542, with a potential test of 13476 if breached. Resistance is now likely at 13662, with a move above potentially testing 13716.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13476-13716.
* Turmeric gained due to the potential for yield losses caused by the crop's unfavourable weather.
* However upside seen limited slower in expectation of release of stocks ahead of commencement of new crops in Jan’24.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13445.65 Rupees dropped by -0.7 percent.

 

JEERA

Jeera prices rose by 0.2% to 44820 due to short covering after a drop in prices. Favorable weather conditions and adequate soil moisture boost upcoming sowing activities. Stockists show interest in buying following recent price downfall, triggering short covering. Global jeera demand declined as buyers preferred other origins like Syria and Turkey due to higher Indian prices. Export activity is likely to remain subdued due to unfavorable price competitiveness in the global market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November adds uncertainty to market dynamics. Jeera exports during Apr-Aug 2023 dropped by 23.76% at 69,779.04 tonnes. In Aug 2023, 8,081.60 tonnes were exported, down 2.61% from Jul 2023 and 66.98% from Aug 2022. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices ended at 45429.75 Rupees, up by 0.04%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest gaining by 1.76% to settle at 4170. Prices are up by 90 rupees. Jeera has support at 44190, with a potential test of 43560 if breached. Resistance is likely at 45760, with a move above potentially testing 46700.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 43560-46700.
* Jeera gained on short covering after prices dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost sowing.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 45429.75 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

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