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Gold

Gold prices fell by 0.69% to settle at 69,309 as investors liquidated positions amid a broader equities selloff. Despite this drop, gold's safe-haven appeal remains strong due to rising U.S. recession fears. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with markets expecting a potential 50 basis point cut. Federal Reserve policymakers, including Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee, emphasized the need for careful monitoring to avoid excessive restrictiveness in interest rates. Gold premiums in India declined as prices recovered, dampening a buying surge triggered by the government's import tax reduction. Indian dealers charged up to $7 an ounce over official prices, down from $20 the previous week. In China, gold was offered at a $2 discount to an $8 premium. Singapore saw gold ranging from a $1.25 discount to a $1.25 premium, while in Hong Kong, it varied between a $1 discount and a $1.20 premium. Japanese dealers offered gold at a $3 discount to a $0.25 premium. The World Gold Council reported a 5% decline in India's gold demand in Q2 2024 compared to the previous year. However, demand is expected to improve in the latter half of 2024 due to a price correction following the import tax reduction and favorable monsoon rains. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 3.85% to 18,559 while prices fell by 480 rupees. Gold is currently supported at 68,290, with a potential test of 67,270 if this level is breached. Resistance is anticipated at 70,420, and a move above this could see prices testing 71,530.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 67270-71530.
* Gold prices fell as investors liquidated positions in tandem with a broader equities selloff
* Prices slumped as recession worries dampened the demand outlook.
* Goolsbee cautions on Fed being overly restrictive, downplays recession fears


Silver

Silver prices dropped by 3.51% to settle at 79,598, driven by growing concerns over global economic growth and a widespread selloff in financial markets, which overshadowed the safe-haven demand for bullion. Recent data indicated that the US economy added significantly fewer jobs than expected in July, sparking fears that the Federal Reserve might be too late to prevent an economic downturn. This bearish outlook on manufacturing led to a selloff in industrial metals, including silver, which is heavily used in new energy technology across factories. Despite this, precious metals are still supported by expectations that the US central bank will need to cut interest rates more aggressively in the coming months. In other developments, the Bank of England delivered a 25 basis point rate cut to 5% last week, and the People’s Bank of China also unexpectedly reduced rates in July. Global silver ETF holdings increased to 714.47 Moz, reaching a two and a half-month high, and COMEX silver inventory stood at 302.739 Moz as of July 31. The ISM Services PMI in the US rose to 51.4 in July 2024, rebounding from a low of 48.8 in the previous month, while the S&P Global US Services PMI was revised lower to 55 from a preliminary 56, still indicating a solid expansion in the services sector. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with a 9.45% increase in open interest, settling at 28,338 contracts. Silver finds support at 77,445, with a potential test of 75,290 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 82,580, and a move above this level could push prices towards 85,560.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 75290-85560.
* Silver plunged as mounting growth concerns and the widespread selloff in financial markets offset safe-haven demand.
* US economy added far fewer jobs than expected in July, fueling worries that the Federal Reserve may already be too late in averting an economic downturn.
* Global silver ETF holdings reached 714.47 Moz, a two and a half-month high


Crude oil

Crude oil prices remained unchanged at 6,146, amid a stock market selloff triggered by U.S. recession fears. Despite the broader market decline, losses in oil were limited due to supply disruptions in Libya and concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East. Asian share markets tumbled as investors fled risk assets, betting that rapid interest rate cuts would be necessary to stimulate economic growth. Supply concerns provided some support to prices; Libya’s largest oil field, Sharara, completely halted output due to local protests. Additionally, ongoing conflict in Gaza and potential retaliations by Iran and its allies against Israel heightened geopolitical risks, supporting oil prices. In the U.S., crude oil inventories fell by 3.436 million barrels for the week ending July 26, 2024, exceeding market expectations of a 1.6 million barrel draw. This marked the fifth consecutive weekly decline in inventories, with each decrease surpassing market predictions. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub also dropped by 1.1 million barrels, marking the fourth consecutive draw. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.7 million barrels, despite a decline in weekly product supplied. Conversely, distillate fuel inventories unexpectedly rose by 1.5 million barrels due to a sharp decline in product supplied. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with an 8.75% drop in open interest, settling at 15,013 contracts. Crude oil finds support at 6,049, with a potential test of 5,951 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 6,221, with further gains possibly pushing prices towards 6,295.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5951-6295.
* Crude oil drops as US recession fears spark broader selloff
* Demand concerns rise after weak US payrolls report
* Declines were limited by Libyan supply losses

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 0.3% to settle at 164.4, driven by rising output and lower-than-expected demand forecasts for the upcoming week. This decline occurred despite a bullish smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and predictions for record-breaking heat that could increase gas consumption by power generators to an all-time high. LSEG reported that gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July, approaching the record high of 105.5 bcfd set in December 2023. Meteorologists slightly lowered their temperature forecasts for the Lower 48 states, which contributed to power demand not reaching an all-time high as some analysts had predicted. Meanwhile, the U.S. National Hurricane Center indicated that a tropical disturbance over Cuba has a 90% chance of developing into a cyclone, potentially impacting Florida's Gulf Coast or Panhandle within the next week. U.S. utilities added 18 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ending July 26th, 2024, significantly below market expectations of a 31 bcf build and down from the previous week's 22 bcf build. Despite this, storage levels were 8.4% higher than the same period last year and over 15% above the five-year average. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 2.5% to settle at 52,510 while prices dropped by 0.5 rupees. Natural gas is currently supported at 160.1, with a potential test of 155.8 if this level is breached. Resistance is anticipated at 167.7, and a move above this could see prices testing 171.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 155.8-171.
* Natural gas fell on rising output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.
* Prices fell despite a bullish smaller-than-expected weekly storage build
* Gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 103.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July.


Copper

Copper prices declined by 2.25% to settle at 777.25, driven by a wave of risk aversion amid growing concerns of economic contraction in the US and slowing growth in China. Recent data has reinforced the downturn in demand for industrial goods, with both the NBS and Caixin manufacturing PMIs indicating contraction in July, and the ISM PMI highlighting softness in US factories. Base metal demand is expected to remain muted in China as the government refrains from significant stimulus measures, focusing instead on steering the economy towards advanced technologies and new energies. Reports that some Chinese smelters are pursuing new projects to comply with output mandates have also challenged earlier expectations of production cuts, easing supply concerns and adding bearish pressure. Additionally, copper premiums surged to $25 a ton, the highest in over three months, reflecting a tightened supply. The global refined copper market showed a surplus of 65,000 metric tons in May, compared to 11,000 metric tons in April, with a year-to-date surplus of 416,000 metric tons. China's unwrought copper imports declined to a 14-month low in June, with imports down 3% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month, impacted by high global prices and weak domestic demand. For the first half of the year, copper imports were up 6.8% to 2.76 million tons. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 1.88% to settle at 13,343 while prices fell by 17.85 rupees. Copper is currently supported at 761.3, with a potential test of 745.4 if this level is breached. Resistance is anticipated at 797.5, and a move above this could see prices testing 817.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 745.4-817.8.
* Copper sank tracking the wave of risk aversion that has triggered sharp selling pressure in commodities.
* Pressure also seen amid growing concerns of economic contraction in the US and slowing growth in China.
* Both the NBS and the Caixin Caixin manufacturing PMIs pointed to a contraction in July.

Zinc

Zinc prices fell by 1.43%, closing at 247.75, as global economic concerns weighed on sentiment. U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, heightening fears of a potential recession. This, along with weak manufacturing activity in China, triggered a global selloff in risk assets. However, the weak job report increased expectations of deeper interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve starting in September, which could support industrial activity and boost metals demand. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories fell by 7.5% from last Friday, indicating strong demand. In June, China's refined zinc production rose by 1.81% month-on-month to 545,800 metric tons, though it was down 1.2% year-on-year. First-half output totaled 3.182 million metric tons, down 1.39% year-on-year, but higher than expected. Some regions like Guangxi, Gansu, and Guizhou saw production exceed expectations despite maintenance-related reductions elsewhere. Supply concerns persist, with tight zinc concentrate supplies and refinery raw material inventories being consumed more than replenished. China's MMG Ltd halted operations at a mill at its Dugald River zinc mine in Australia for repairs, expected to exacerbate market shortages. The global zinc market surplus fell to 8,300 metric tons in May from 15,300 tons in April, according to the ILZSG. For the first five months of the year, the global surplus was 193,000 tons, down from 330,000 tons during the same period last year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with a 1.7% drop in open interest, settling at 1,970 contracts. Zinc finds support at 242.7, with a potential test of 237.7 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 252.7, with further gains potentially pushing prices towards 257.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 237.7-257.7.
* Zinc prices dropped as looming concerns over global economies weighed on sentiment.
* The global zinc market surplus fell to 8,300 metric tons in May from 15,300 tons in April
* Investors were also hoping for more support policy from China


Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged up by 0.09% to settle at 210.75, despite earlier pressure from weak manufacturing data from the United States and China, which heightened concerns about the global economic outlook. Improved rainfall in China's production hub of Yunnan increased hydropower availability, enabling smelters to resume idle capacity. Manufacturing activity in China contracted slightly faster in July, with services sector growth slowing to an eight-month low. Global primary aluminium output in June rose 3.2% year-on-year to 5.94 million tonnes, driven primarily by increased production in China. In the first half of 2024, global output rose by 3.9% to 35.84 million metric tons. China, the world's largest aluminium producer, saw its first-half aluminium output grow by 7% to 21.55 million tons, with June's production being the highest in nearly a decade. The International Aluminium Institute estimated China's production at 21.26 million tons for January-June, up 5.2%. Production in Western and Central Europe increased by 2.2% to 1.37 million tons, while Russia and Eastern Europe saw a 2.4% increase to 2.04 million tons. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for Q3 was set at $172 per metric ton, up 16%-19% from the previous quarter, reflecting tighter supplies in Asia. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports stood at 317,860 metric tons at the end of June, up about 3% from the previous month. Technically, the market experienced short covering with a drop in open interest by 3.48% to settle at 4461 while prices increased by 0.2 rupees. Aluminium has support at 208.9, with a potential test of 206.9 if breached. Resistance is expected at 212.5, and a move above this could see prices testing 214.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.9-214.1.
* Aluminium settled flat amid weak manufacturing data from US and China
* Rainfall in the Chinese production hub of Yunnan improved the availability of hydropower and allowed smelters to bring back idled capacity.
* Citi forecasts aluminium recovery to $2,500/t (previously $2,550/t) within three months

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices declined by 0.11%, settling at 56,470 due to profit booking, despite underlying support from reduced planting areas in key states. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan collectively reported a significant decrease in cotton acreage to 10.23 lakh hectares from last year's 16 lakh hectares. Specifically, Punjab's cotton area dropped to 97,000 hectares, Rajasthan's to 4.75 lakh hectares, and Haryana's to 4.50 lakh hectares, reflecting a substantial reduction in cultivation. Additionally, the delay in cotton shipments from the US and Brazil has spurred demand for Indian cotton from neighboring countries. A strong trend in cottonseed prices has also supported the natural fiber prices, even as sowing for the kharif 2024 season has begun in southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, bolstered by the onset of monsoon rains. There's an expectation of increased cotton acreage in Telangana as some chilli farmers are likely to switch to cotton due to weak prices in the spices market. The 2024/25 US cotton projections indicate higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month, with production, domestic use, and exports remaining unchanged. The season average upland farm price is down 4 cents to 70 cents per pound, leading to a 400,000-bale increase in ending stocks, now at 4.1 million bales. Globally, the 2024/25 balance sheet shows increased beginning stocks, production, and consumption, leading to world ending stocks projected 480,000 bales higher at 83.5 million. In the Rajkot spot market, prices dropped by 0.31% to 27,228.25 rupees. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with a 1.17% drop in open interest, settling at 169 contracts. Cottoncandy finds support at 56,340, with a potential test of 56,220 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 56,550, with further gains possibly pushing prices towards 56,640.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56220-56640.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after seen supported as area under cotton in North India drops
* India's cotton exports in the first nine months of 2023-24 increased by 68% to 26 lakh bales
* CAI estimates closing stocks at 20 lakh bales at the end of 2023-24, down from 28.90 lakh bales in the previous year
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined by 1.49% to settle at 15,856 amid news of increased sowing. Despite the drop, the downside was limited as farmers held back stocks anticipating a further price rise. Turmeric sowing in Erode has reportedly doubled compared to last year, while Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh saw a 30-35% increase in sowing. Last year, turmeric was sown on about 3-3.25 lakh hectares, with an estimated increase to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year. Last year's low sowing and unfavorable weather reduced turmeric production to an estimated 45-50 lakh bags, with an additional carryover stock of 35-38 lakh bags. Despite the increased sowing this season, the upcoming crop is expected to be around 70-75 lakh bags, with no carryover stock, leading to a potential supply shortfall against consumption in 2025. Turmeric exports during April-May 2024 dropped by 20.03% to 31,523.94 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. However, May 2024 saw a 23.43% rise in exports to 17,414.84 tonnes from April 2024. Imports surged by 417.74% to 14,637.55 tonnes in April-May 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. In May 2024, imports slightly rose by 0.18% from April 2024 but saw a substantial increase of 321.88% from March 2023. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at 16,310.5 rupees, gaining 0.45%. Technically, the market experienced fresh selling with a slight gain in open interest by 0.06% to settle at 16,100 while prices dropped by 240 rupees. Turmeric has support at 15,684, with a potential test of 15,510 if breached. Resistance is expected at 16,160, and a move above this could see prices testing 16,462.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15510-16462.
* Turmeric prices dropped amid news of increased sowing.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year.
* Turmeric was sown in about 3/3.25 lakh hectares in the country last year, which is estimated to increase to 3.75/4 lakh hectares this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16310.5 Rupees gained by 0.45 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices dropped by 1.07%, closing at 26,370, due to expectations of higher production weighing on the market. However, robust domestic and export demand and tight global supplies limited the downside. Farmers holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices also supported the market. This season, jeera production is expected to be 30% higher, reaching 8.5-9 lakh tonnes due to a substantial rise in cultivation area. The sowing area in Gujarat increased by 104% and in Rajasthan by 16%. Global production has surged, with China's output more than doubling to 55-60 thousand tons, incentivized by high prices last season. Increased production in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, with new seeds expected soon, will likely lead to a decline in cumin prices. Turkey and Afghanistan anticipate significant increases in output, contributing to the price drop as new supplies enter the market. Pressure on prices at higher levels persists due to the expectation of increased production. In Gujarat, the sowing area increased by 30-35%, and in Rajasthan, by 35%, leading to an estimated record production of 4.08 lakh tonnes in Gujarat. Rajasthan's cumin production also increased by 53%. Jeera exports during April-May 2024 rose by 43.50% to 58,943.84 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. Despite a drop in May 2024 exports compared to April 2024, overall export volumes remain strong. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with a 1.1% drop in open interest, settling at 26,500 contracts. Jeera finds support at 26,220, with a potential test of 26,070 if this level is breached. On the upside, resistance is expected at 26,550, with further gains possibly pushing prices towards 26,730.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26070-26730.
* Jeera dropped as the expectation of higher production could weigh on the prices.
* China's cumin output soared to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26186.8 Rupees dropped by -0.9 percent.