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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.83% to 77,749, driven by strong global demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of further interest rate cuts by major central banks. The European Central Bank's third rate cut of the year, reducing the deposit rate to 3.25%, signaled that the disinflationary process is well underway. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly after the death of key Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, added to the demand for gold as investors feared regional escalation. Additionally, underwhelming fiscal measures in China’s property crisis and uncertainties regarding the US presidential election further supported bullion prices. However, strong economic data from the US tempered gold’s momentum, suggesting the Federal Reserve might maintain a less dovish stance. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports fell in September due to reduced shipments to India, the world’s second-largest gold consumer. Indian demand dropped following a temporary boost in July-August when import taxes were reduced. Physical gold dealers in India and China offered discounts amid high prices, with Indian dealers offering up to $8 per ounce below domestic prices and Chinese dealers narrowing their discounts to $3-$14 per ounce below spot prices. Technically, gold is under fresh buying pressure, with a 0.87% increase in open interest to 15,833 contracts as prices rose by 642 rupees. Gold is currently supported at 77,410, with a potential test of 77,080 if prices fall further. On the upside, resistance is expected at 77,955, with a move above potentially pushing prices to test 78,170.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 77080-78170.
* Gold reached a new record high driven by global demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of further interest rate cuts.
* Gold prices found support from rising tensions in the Middle East
* Physical gold dealers in India were forced to offer discounts, as record high prices dampened demand ahead of a key festival.


Silver
Silver prices surged by 3.99%, closing at 95,402, as a rally in gold prices and increased geopolitical uncertainties drove safe-haven demand for precious metals. Tensions in the Middle East escalated with the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, raising fears of broader conflict, while the US presidential election added further uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a close race, with market predictions slightly favoring Trump. In addition, China's positive economic data boosted demand outlooks in the world’s top metals consumer, further supporting silver prices. The European Central Bank’s third rate cut this year, aimed at curbing inflation, also contributed to the favorable environment for precious metals. On the supply side, the Silver Institute projected a significant deficit of 215.3 million ounces in the silver market for 2024, the second-largest shortfall in over two decades. Global silver demand is expected to increase by 2% to 1.219 billion ounces, driven by sectors like solar panels and electronics. India's silver imports nearly doubled in 2024, reaching 4,554 tons in the first half compared to 560 tons in the previous year, as industrial buyers restocked inventories. On the technical front, the market experienced short covering, with open interest declining by -1.01% to 26,032 contracts. Prices rose by 3,658 rupees. Silver is finding support at 93,090, with a break below this level potentially leading to a test of 90,780. Resistance is now at 96,615, with prices possibly testing 97,830 if upward momentum continues.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90780-97830.
* Silver prices climbed tracking a rally in gold prices as uncertainties around the upcoming US election.
* Moreover, upbeat economic data in China lifted the demand outlook in the world’s top metals consumer.
* The market is expected to face a deficit of 215.3 million ounces, the second-largest shortfall in more than two decades.


Crudeoil
Crude oil prices declined by 0.65%, settling at 5,839, as concerns over future demand and easing fears of supply disruptions weighed on the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both slashed their forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025. Weak economic data from China, which reported 4.6% growth in the third quarter, has increased calls for stimulus measures. Additionally, China’s refinery output dropped for the sixth consecutive month due to weak fuel consumption and thin refining margins, further dampening oil demand. In the U.S., crude oil inventories fell by 2.192 million barrels during the week ending October 11, 2024, which was in line with expectations for a smaller draw compared to the forecasted 2.3 million barrel increase. Gasoline stocks also declined by 2.201 million barrels, exceeding forecasts, while distillate inventories fell by 3.534 million barrels, compared to the expected 2.5 million drop. However, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub saw a slight increase of 0.108 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its global and U.S. oil demand forecasts for 2024, citing weakening economic activity in China and North America. World oil demand is now expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 104.3 million bpd in 2024, lower than previous estimates. Technically, the crude oil market is under fresh selling pressure, with a 9.29% rise in open interest, settling at 14,381 contracts as prices dropped by 38. Support is seen at 5,742, with a potential test of 5,646 on the downside. Resistance is expected at 5,949, with a move above possibly leading to 6,060.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5646-6060.
* Crude oil dropped due to concerns about outlook for demand and easing fears of supply disruptions.
* OPEC and the International Energy Agency slashed their forecasts for global oil demand in 2024 and 2025.
* Fears also eased about a potential retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran that could disrupt Tehran's oil exports.


Naturalgas
Natural gas prices fell by 3.39% to settle at 190.9, driven by forecasts of mild weather over the next two weeks, which is expected to keep heating demand lower than usual for this time of year. Despite the drop, there were some signals of stronger demand next week compared to prior expectations. Additionally, the recent storage build was smaller than expected, aligning with market forecasts. The U.S. gas output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September, and well below the record of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists forecast unseasonably warm weather through November 2, which should cause gas demand in the Lower 48 states to decrease from 97.9 bcfd this week to 96.4 bcfd next week before rising to 99.9 bcfd in two weeks. Meanwhile, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants has increased to an average of 13.0 bcfd in October, compared to 12.7 bcfd in September. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that natural gas production will decline slightly in 2024, with dry gas production expected to fall from a record 103.8 bcfd in 2023 to 103.5 bcfd in 2024. Gas consumption is expected to rise to 90.1 bcfd in 2024 before easing back to 89.1 bcfd in 2025. Technically, the natural gas market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by 0.7% to settle at 44,220 contracts as prices declined by 6.7. Support for natural gas is currently at 187.5, with a potential test of 184 if prices fall further. Resistance is expected at 197, and a move above this level could push prices toward 203.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 184-203.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for mild weather over the next two weeks that should keep heating demand lower.
* The U.S. EIA said utilities added 76 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September.


Copper
Copper prices rose by 1% to settle at 822.25, driven by renewed optimism following new measures to boost liquidity in the Chinese stock market. Expectations of further stimulus from China, the top global consumer of copper, also supported prices. Despite mixed economic data, China’s economy grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, slightly above market forecasts of 4.5%, though it marked the slowest pace since early 2023. Persistent weakness in the property sector and sluggish domestic demand continued to weigh on the economy, though September's consumption and industrial output exceeded expectations. Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses increased by 7.6% last week, signaling a buildup in stock levels. On the supply side, Peru’s copper production rose by 10.7% in August, reaching its highest monthly level for 2024, although cumulative output remained below last year’s levels. Globally, the refined copper market posted a surplus of 91,000 metric tons in July, down from 113,000 metric tons in June, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Year-to-date, the market was in a 527,000 metric ton surplus, compared to just 79,000 metric tons during the same period in 2023. In China, imports of unwrought copper rose by 15.4% month-on-month in September, driven by improving seasonal demand and a better consumption outlook. Technically, copper is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 13.85% to settle at 6,250 contracts while prices increased by 8.15. Support is seen at 817.8, and a break below this level could push prices to test 813.3. On the upside, resistance is expected at 826, with further movement potentially testing 829.7.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 813.3-829.7.
* Copper rose supported by new measures to boost liquidity in the Chinese stock market
* Support also seen amid expectations that more stimulus tools were coming after it released mixed economic data.
* Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses rose 7.6% from last Friday


Zinc
Zinc prices rose by 1.06%, closing at 284.9, supported by better-than-expected economic data from China, the world’s largest consumer. China's economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, surpassing expectations of 4.5%, despite a slight slowdown from 4.7% in the second quarter. Strong retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments in September also boosted market sentiment, with industrial production growing by 5.4% year-on-year, outpacing forecasts of 4.6%. However, concerns about China's struggling property sector remain, with new home prices falling significantly. On the global front, the zinc market faces a substantial supply deficit in 2024 due to a raw materials shortage that is forcing smelters to reduce refined metal production. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) revised its previous forecast of a 56,000-ton surplus to a 164,000-ton deficit. Global demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1.8% to 13.83 million tons in 2024, while output will be limited by the availability of concentrates, with production forecasted to fall by 1.8%. Despite supply constraints, the ILZSG anticipates a surplus of 148,000 tons in 2025. On the technical side, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest increased by 0.57% to settle at 2,275 contracts. Zinc prices rose by 3 rupees, finding support at 283. A break below this level could see prices testing 281.2. On the upside, resistance is likely at 285.9, with prices potentially reaching 287 if the bullish momentum continues. The market remains sensitive to supply-demand dynamics and economic conditions in China.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 281.2-287.
* Zinc prices rose amid better-than-expected economic data in China lifted market sentiment.
* Data showed that China’s economy grew 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter.
* The country also reported stronger-than-expected retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investments in September.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices rose by 1.62%, closing at 239, driven by China's aggressive stimulus packages, which boosted the demand outlook for industrial metals. Strong hydropower supply in the southwestern Yunnan province, due to improved rainfall, allowed aluminium producers to maintain robust operation rates. Additionally, China's industrial production grew by 5.4% year-on-year in September, exceeding market expectations of 4.6%, marking the fastest expansion in five months. Retail sales in China also jumped by 3.2%, the highest growth since May, further supporting demand. China's aluminium production increased by 1.2% year-on-year in September, reaching 3.65 million metric tons, thanks to strong demand and profitable margins for producers. Daily output in September averaged 121,667 tons, slightly higher than in August. The industry's average profit reached 2,379 yuan per ton in September, up 12.2% from the previous month, driven by higher aluminium prices. For the first nine months of 2024, China produced 32.56 million tons of aluminium, a 4.6% increase from the previous year. Globally, primary aluminium output rose by 2.4% year-on-year in July to 6.194 million metric tons, with China's production rising by 2.5%. On the technical front, the market saw short covering, with open interest falling by 17.22% to 1,687 contracts. Aluminium prices rose by 3.8 rupees. The metal is currently supported at 236.7, with a potential drop to 234.2 if this level is breached. Resistance is expected at 240.6, and a move above that could push prices to test 242. The market remains sensitive to supply-demand dynamics, particularly in China, and global production trends.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 234.2-242.
* Aluminium gains driven by aggressive stimulus packages announced by China that boosted the demand outlook.
* China aluminium production up 1.2 % to 3.65 mln metric tons in Sept.
* Meanwhile, hydropower supply in the southwestern Yunnan province remained sufficient amid improved rainfall.


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices dropped by 0.79%, settling at 56,460, driven by weak demand in yarn markets and payment constraints. Despite this, the downside was limited by lower production forecasts from the USDA. India’s cotton production for the 2024-25 season is projected to decrease to 30.72 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest infestations, while ending stocks are expected to decline to 12.38 million bales. However, global cotton production estimates have been raised by over 200,000 bales, with increases in China, Brazil, and Argentina offsetting reductions in the US and Spain. Acreage under cotton in India has decreased by 9% to 110.49 lakh hectares compared to the same period last year, as farmers shift to other crops. According to the Cotton Association of India (CAI), India’s cotton imports rose by 5 lakh bales in 2023-24 to 17.50 lakh bales, boosting overall supply. Exports also surged by 84% to 28.50 lakh bales, driven by higher demand from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam. In the US, cotton production has been revised downward due to damage from Hurricane Helene, with output estimated at 14.2 million bales for 2024/25. U.S. exports are expected to decrease by 300,000 bales to 11.5 million, while ending stocks have been raised by 100,000 bales to 4.1 million. Technically, Cottoncandy is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1.52% to settle at 130 contracts while prices fell by 450. Support is seen at 55,270, and a break below this could lead to testing 54,090. On the upside, resistance is expected at 57,460, with a move above potentially pushing prices to 58,470.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 54090-58470.
* Cotton dropped as yarn markets face weak demand and payment constraints.
* USDA has raised global cotton production estimates by over 200,000 bales.
* Cotton production is projected to increase in China, Brazil, and Argentina, more than offsetting reductions in the US and Spain.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices rose by 0.78%, closing at 13,702, driven by reports of potential crop damage due to heavy rains, which could lead to higher-than-expected losses. Despite this, gains were limited due to lower demand amid rising arrivals. Total arrivals were reported at 14,915 bags, a drop from the previous session’s 16,975 bags, largely due to a sharp decline in arrivals at Sangli, which saw only 890 bags compared to 11,000 bags in the prior session. Although the harvest is still five months away, the combination of low supply and unfavorable weather conditions is expected to push prices higher in the coming weeks. However, the upside may be capped by increased sowing. In Indonesia, dry weather has accelerated the turmeric harvest, which is currently at its peak. Rising acreage and reduced export demand could lead to further price declines. Turmeric sowing in India has significantly increased, with areas such as Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh seeing higher sowing estimates. The total area under turmeric cultivation is projected to rise to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year, compared to 3-3.25 lakh hectares last year. On the export front, turmeric exports during April-August 2024 fell by 6.46%, but August saw a 41.09% year-on-year rise. Imports surged by 340.21% during the same period. Technically, the market is under short covering, with a 0.86% drop in open interest, settling at 12,660 contracts. Prices are supported at 13,586, with a break below possibly testing 13,468. Resistance is seen at 13,786, and a move above could lead to prices testing 13,868.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13468-13868.
* Turmeric prices gained amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains.
* Turmeric exports during Apr-Aug 2024, dropped by 6.46 percent at 77,584.70 tonnes compared to Apr-Aug 2023.
* India’s festival season demand is expected to surge, particularly with CAIT forecasting 48 lakh marriages in the upcoming season.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13819.25 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices rose by 0.96% to settle at 25,175, driven by short covering and robust demand from cumin seed exporters in Gujarat. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have boosted export business, with cumin prices ranging between $3,150 and $3,200 per tonne. Pakistan, in particular, has been purchasing Indian cumin due to its competitive pricing compared to China. The export market saw substantial growth, with cumin seed exports during July, August, and September reaching 52,022 metric tonnes, marking a 128% year-on-year increase. This surge in demand has been further supported by festive season buying in both domestic and international markets, especially in Europe and other regions. However, the upside was limited due to the availability of approximately 30% of cumin stocks still held by Indian farmers. Arrivals in Unjha remain strong, with daily inflows of 12,000 to 17,000 bags, primarily from Rajasthan. Despite strong exports, domestic arrivals are putting pressure on prices. Jeera exports during April-August 2024 rose by 61.44% to 103,614.46 tonnes compared to the same period last year. Although exports in August 2024 showed a 27.92% drop compared to July, they were still 88.53% higher than August 2023. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest dropping by 0.33% to settle at 1,827 contracts, while prices increased by 240. Jeera is currently supported at 24,940, with a potential test of 24,710 if prices fall further. Resistance is expected at 25,320, and a move above this level could lead to prices testing 25,470.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24710-25470.
* Jeera gains on short covering as Middle East tension boosts jeera exports from Gujarat.
* Tensions in the Middle East has resulted in good export business from Gujarat
* The arrival of Ramzan earlier this year will increase domestic consumption.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25545.8 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

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