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Gold

Gold prices climbed 1.01% yesterday, settling at 100,329 as investors remained cautious amid persistent trade uncertainties and fresh concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Ongoing US trade talks, including potential new tariff announcements by President Trump and upcoming meetings between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials, have injected optimism that deadlines could be extended, calming immediate fears of escalations. Meanwhile, Bessent’s comments addressing speculation about Fed leadership have stirred the market’s focus ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, where no rate change is anticipated. On the physical side, Switzerland’s gold exports surged 44% month-on-month in June, reaching their highest level since March, as bullion returned to London vaults, which now hold 8,776 tonnes — the highest since August 2023. However, India’s gold demand remained weak due to near record-high prices, pushing dealers to widen discounts to attract hesitant buyers. India’s June gold imports slumped by 40% year-on-year to their lowest in over two years at 21 tons. In China, premiums narrowed to $5-$10 an ounce compared to last week’s $10-$25, reflecting softer physical buying sentiment across Asian hubs, including Hong Kong and Singapore. Technically, the market is seeing short covering with open interest falling by 1.5% while prices advanced by 1,001 rupees. Gold now finds support at 99,480 and 98,635, with resistance pegged at 100,790; a break above could drive prices towards 101,255.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 98635-101255.

* Gold rose as investors stayed cautious amid trade uncertainty and speculation over the Fed’s independence.

* Treasury Secretary Bessent’s upcoming meeting with Chinese officials raised hopes for extending the August 12 deadline.

* Gold holdings in London vaults rose by 177.8 tons to 8,776 tonnes, the highest since August 2023.

Silver

Silver prices edged higher by 0.53% yesterday, settling at 115,655 as markets weighed fresh signals on US trade policy and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks emphasized the administration’s focus on the quality rather than the speed of trade agreements, hinting at the possibility of new tariffs as early as August, which some Fed officials view as inflationary. This stance has tempered expectations of near-term rate cuts. However, news that the tariff truce with China will likely be extended past its August 12th deadline eased some market concerns. On the demand front, retail investment in silver has shown a mixed trend. Europe’s recovery, which began in late 2024, continues in 2025 but remains modest compared to the peaks during 2020–2022. In India, retail investment demand has remained robust, rising 7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 on firm price expectations. Meanwhile, silver-backed ETPs saw net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, surpassing the total for all of 2024 and pushing global ETP holdings to 1.13 billion ounces — just 7% shy of the February 2021 record. The silver market is poised for a fifth consecutive year of supply deficit, with industrial demand forecast to reach a record high above 700 million ounces, driven by strong growth in green energy sectors. Technically, fresh buying was evident as open interest rose by 1.81% alongside a price gain of 609 rupees. Silver now finds support at 114,535 and 113,420, while resistance is seen at 116,480, with a break above likely to test 117,310.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 113420-117310.

* Silver surged to a fresh all-time high as markets digested US trade policy and Fed outlook impacts.

* Treasury Secretary Bessent stressed trade deal quality over timing, hinting at possible aggressive tariffs from August.

* Treasury Secretary Bessent stressed trade deal quality over timing, hinting at possible aggressive tariffs from August.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices slipped by 0.9% yesterday to settle at 5,646 as traders weighed the potential impact of escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union, which could dampen global fuel demand by curbing economic activity. Adding to market dynamics, the United States withdrew 300,000 barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week for the first time since December 2023, with ExxonMobil authorized to borrow up to a million barrels to maintain refinery operations. On the supply side, OPEC’s latest monthly report offered a slightly more optimistic outlook, projecting global oil demand to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, mostly driven by non-OECD countries. However, both OPEC and the IEA continue to issue cautious forecasts, risking underestimation of potential Asian demand growth. U.S. crude inventories declined by 3.859 million barrels for the week ending July 11, 2025, breaking a two-week streak of increases, though stocks at the Cushing hub rose modestly by 213 thousand barrels. The EIA’s latest outlook also trimmed its 2025 U.S. oil production forecast to 13.37 million bpd, slightly lower than last month’s projection, citing lower prices and cautious producer activity amid geopolitical and trade headwinds. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure as open interest jumped 11.63% while prices dropped by 51 rupees. The commodity finds immediate support at 5,607, with a break below opening a path to 5,568. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 5,692, and a move above this could push prices towards 5,738.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5568-5738.

* Crude oil dropped as trade war concerns increase worries about fuel demand

* US withdrew oil from strategic reserve last week for first time since 2023, EIA shows

* OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 mbpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices slipped by 1.37% yesterday, settling at 281, as markets reacted to near-record production levels and forecasts for slightly cooler temperatures than previously expected for the next two weeks. Despite the hotter-than-normal summer so far, robust output continues to weigh on prices, with stagnant flows to LNG export terminals and healthy storage levels further dampening bullish momentum. Gas stockpiles rose by 46 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending July 11, pushing total inventories to 3.052 trillion cubic feet — around 6.2% above the five-year seasonal average and well above last year’s increase of 18 bcf for the same period. LSEG reported that average output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 107.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July so far, surpassing June’s record high of 106.4 bcfd. However, daily output has edged down recently, hitting a one-week low of 106.1 bcfd after peaking at a daily record of 108.4 bcfd on July 18. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook continues to see record-breaking trends, with dry gas production expected to rise to 105.9 bcfd in 2025 and LNG exports projected to reach 14.6 bcfd, both new highs. Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 14.57% while prices declined by 3.9 rupees. Natural gas now finds immediate support at 276.8, with a break lower opening the door towards 272.7, while resistance is seen at 285.9; a move above this could push prices to test 290.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 272.7-290.9.

* Natural gas slid on near-record output and forecasts for less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.

* Prices were also weighed down by stagnant gas flows to LNG export plants and ample amounts of gas in storage.

* Gas stockpiles were already about 6% above normal levels for this time of year.

Copper

Copper prices edged up by 0.2% yesterday, settling at 898, supported by fresh optimism over Chinese demand and shifting global supply dynamics. Market sentiment was lifted after Chinese authorities reiterated commitments to stabilize industrial growth, while the announcement of a major hydropower project in Tibet signaled sustained infrastructure activity. On the global front, the US decision to enforce a 50% tariff on imported refined copper starting August 1st continues to reshape trade flows. The tariff, which targets refined metal including traded cathode, has driven the premium between US copper and comparable LME futures to a record 25% as traders rush to reposition inventories into the US. With domestic refining capacity limited to only two operational smelters, the new levies may tighten US supply in the near term, as the country imports nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile. Meanwhile, Chilean copper output remains strong — state miner Codelco reported a 9% production increase in H1 2025, while Antofagasta’s production rose 11% to nearly 315,000 metric tons. Despite this, the global refined copper market flipped into a 50,000 metric ton deficit in April after posting a surplus in March, according to ICSG data. Technically, copper is under short covering, with open interest falling by 9.5% while prices gained 1.8 rupees. Copper now finds support at 893.6, with a break lower exposing 889, while resistance stands at 901.2; a move above this could open the path to 904.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 889-904.2.

* Copper gains supported by signs of better demand from China as authorities vow to stabilise industrial growth.

* Investors remained cautious, focusing primarily on any new developments in trade talks between U.S. and trade partners ahead of the August 1 deadline.

* Peru's copper production decreased 4.6% year-on-year to 220,849 metric tons in May.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 0.58% yesterday to settle at 268.85, supported by expectations of stronger Chinese demand and signs of tightening global supply. Fresh data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group revealed that the global zinc market shifted to a deficit of 44,100 metric tons in May, reversing a surplus of 17,300 tons in April. For the first five months of 2025, the global surplus narrowed to 88,000 tons, significantly lower than the 214,000 tons surplus recorded in the same period last year, highlighting a clear tightening trend. Concerns about availability on the London Metal Exchange added further support, with more than half of the zinc stocks in LME-approved warehouses marked for delivery — out of 118,225 tons total, around 59,900 tons are set to leave the system. Supply constraints were compounded by disruptions at Chinese smelters due to heavy rain and capacity curtailments as output has outpaced demand. Meanwhile, mined output from Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine — the world’s largest zinc mine — fell by 20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, and Australia’s Nyrstar plans to cut output by 25% amid a shortage of ores. While China’s refined zinc production edged up 2% year-on-year in May, month-on-month output fell by 1% as planned and unplanned maintenance in key provinces limited production gains. Technically, zinc is under short covering as open interest fell by 1.74% while prices climbed by 1.55 rupees. Zinc finds immediate support at 266.8, with a drop below opening the path to 264.8, while resistance sits at 270.3; a move above could push prices towards 271.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 264.8-271.8.

* Zinc gains buoyed by hopes for firmer Chinese demand.

* The global zinc market swung to a deficit of 44,100 metric tons in May from a surplus of 17,300 tons in April.

* Investors were cautious about the impact of tariffs on economic growth and inflation.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose by 0.61% yesterday, settling at 255, supported by expectations of tighter supply and improving demand sentiment from China and Europe. Production from China, the world’s top aluminium producer, is set to slow as output remains constrained by the annual cap of 45 million tons, part of the country’s broader push to meet carbon emission targets. Meanwhile, optimism over European demand strengthened after EU nations indicated plans to boost defense production, while ongoing sanctions on major producer Russia continue to limit available supply for European factories. Adding to the positive outlook, China’s announcement of a massive CNY 1.2 trillion hydroelectric dam project signaled renewed government commitment to infrastructure investment, partially offsetting the drag from the country’s persistent property crisis. Despite the supportive supply-side narrative, global primary aluminium output in June still rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 6.045 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute, while aluminium inventories at SHFE-monitored warehouses climbed 5.5% week-on-week. Japanese buyers have also negotiated a sharply lower premium for Q3 shipments, down 41% from the previous quarter, highlighting subdued demand and comfortable supply. Technically, aluminium is under short covering as open interest fell by 2.35% while prices firmed by 1.55 rupees. Aluminium finds immediate support at 253.4, with a break below opening the door to 251.8. Resistance is seen at 256, with a move above likely to push prices towards 257.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.8-257.

* Aluminium rose on the outlook of lower supply and less pessimism on demand from China.

* China's imports of unwrought aluminium and products jumped 24.1% year-on-year in June.

* Global primary aluminium output in June rose 0.9% year on year to 6.045 million tonnes.

Turmeric

Turmeric edged up by 0.38% to settle at 13,262 as the market witnessed short covering after recent declines driven by expectations of increased acreage this season. Favorable rainfall and relatively lower profitability of alternative crops are encouraging farmers to expand turmeric cultivation, with early estimates suggesting a 15–20% increase in acreage. This has pushed the total area under turmeric for the 2024–25 season to about 3.30 lakh hectares, 10% higher than the previous year’s 3 lakh hectares. Despite the higher sown area, concerns persist over actual production, as untimely rains could hamper yields. Last year’s production stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes, but fresh estimates hint at a potential 10–15% dip in yields this season, with regions like Nanded already reporting issues like small rhizomes and crop rot. At Duggirala, robust buyer interest continues for fresh stock, which is commanding a premium over older inventory due to its superior quality. On the export front, turmeric remains well-supported, with shipments during April–May 2025 up 8.37% year-on-year at 34,162.28 tonnes. May exports alone rose 10.28% year-on-year and surged over 28% compared to April. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dipped by 0.45% to 17,635 lots while prices moved up by 50. Turmeric now finds immediate support at 13,046, with further downside potential to 12,830 if this level is breached. Resistance is pegged at 13,588, and a breakout above this could lift prices towards 13,914 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12830-13914.

* Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14055.55 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Jeera

Jeera edged lower by 0.18% to close at 19,285 as the market continued to grapple with weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. The price decline was largely driven by the seasonal lull and limited foreign buying, which has kept overall sentiment subdued.  At the supply side, comfortable stock positions are adding pressure. Farmers still hold an estimated 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before the season wraps up, which could leave a sizable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is projected at 90–92 lakh bags, slightly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags due to a dip in sowing area.  Geopolitical supply concerns from other major producers such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are not translating into robust demand for Indian jeera, as export orders remain lukewarm. This is evident from export data showing a sharp 27.07% drop in jeera shipments during April–May 2025 compared to the same period last year. However, month-on-month figures show a slight recovery, with May exports up 11.26% year-on-year and 17.68% higher than April. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down by 0.49% to 6,105 lots as prices slipped by 35. Immediate support is seen at 19,200; a break below this could push prices down to 19,100. On the upside, resistance is expected near 19,410, with a move beyond this level likely to test 19,520.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19100-19520.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19921 Rupees dropped by -0.39 percent.

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