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Gold

Gold yesterday surged 2.17% to settle at a record high of 1,12,230, supported by firm safe-haven demand and rising expectations of further U.S. rate cuts. The rally gained strength after St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that interest rates are now “between modestly restrictive and neutral,” suggesting limited scope for additional cuts without moving into overaccommodation. Investors now await upcoming Fed speeches and Friday’s PCE inflation report for clarity on the future rate path. Central bank demand has also strengthened, with net buying rebounding to 63 tonnes, in line with the post-2022 average, further underpinning bullish sentiment. Physical demand trends showed mixed regional signals: in India, premiums rose to a 10-month high of $7 per ounce as festive demand persisted despite record prices, while in China, discounts widened to $21–$36, the steepest since May 2020, reflecting weaker investor appetite. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s bullion exports to China jumped 254% in August to 35 tonnes, while shipments to India climbed modestly to 15.2 tonnes, offsetting a sharp decline in flows to the U.S. Technically, gold is under short covering as open interest fell -11.25% to 10,711 while prices spiked 2,383. Immediate support is at 1,10,855, with the next level at 1,09,480. On the upside, resistance is placed at 1,12,950, and a break above could lift prices towards 1,13,670.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 109480-113670.

* Gold soared to an all-time high fueled by growing expectations of further U.S. rate cuts.

* Fed’s Musalem said interest rates are now “between modestly restrictive and neutral”

* China's gold imports in August fell 3.4% from July

Silver

Silver yesterday surged 2.86% to an all-time high of 1,33,555, driven by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of further U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed’s recent 25 bps reduction, its first since December, has bolstered the outlook for additional cuts this year, with investors eyeing upcoming Fed speeches and Friday’s U.S. core PCE data for fresh policy signals. Monetary easing expectations, coupled with robust industrial demand, have kept silver prices well-supported. On the fundamentals side, silver’s role in the solar, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors continues to underpin demand. Exchange-traded product (ETP) investment has also surged, with net inflows of 95 million ounces in H1 2025, already surpassing last year’s total. By June-end, global ETP holdings stood at 1.13 billion ounces, valued at over $40 billion, hitting record highs. Regionally, Indian retail investment rose 7% YoY in the first half, supported by strong price expectations, while European demand continued its recovery from the lows of 2022. Globally, the silver deficit is projected to narrow 21% to 117.6 million ounces in 2025 as supply rises 2% and demand dips 1%, though industrial usage remains steady at historically high levels. Technically, silver is under fresh buying as open interest jumped 6.45% to 18,612 alongside a 3,717 price rise. Support lies at 1,31,595, with further downside risk towards 1,29,630. Resistance is now pegged at 1,34,590, and a breakout above could extend gains toward 1,35,620.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 129630-135620.

* Silver rose to all time high amid expectations of further Fed rate cuts bolstered demand.

* U.S. President Donald Trump criticised the Fed, urging the central bank to cut interest rates more aggressively.

* Investors are closely watching a series of Fed speeches this week, including remarks from Chair Jerome Powell.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.09% at 5522 as the market balanced geopolitical concerns with oversupply jitters. On the supply front, Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, increased exports under the OPEC+ agreement, with September shipments expected at 3.4–3.45 million bpd. Kuwait also confirmed plans to raise its output to 2.559 million bpd from October, aligning with OPEC+’s recent quota hike aimed at regaining market share. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained elevated ahead of a UN summit on the “two-state solution,” though these risks were offset by supply growth signals. Speculative positioning also shifted as money managers turned net long in U.S. crude futures and options by 30,855 contracts, underscoring renewed bullish bets. On the U.S. data side, the EIA reported a sharp crude stock draw of 9.3 million barrels, well above expectations, bringing inventories down to 415.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also fell by 2.3 million barrels, while distillates rose sharply by 4 million barrels, highlighting mixed product balances. Refinery utilization slipped to 93.3%, with runs down by 394,000 bpd. Cushing hub inventories dropped by 296,000 barrels, while net U.S. crude imports declined significantly by 3.11 million bpd. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling as open interest surged by 1000.08% to 12,981 while prices eased by 5 rupees. Support is placed at 5465, with further downside risk to 5407, whereas resistance is at 5578 and a break above could extend gains toward 5633.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5407-5633.

* Crude oil prices dipped as concerns over Russia and the Middle East were countered by oversupply jitters.

* Iraq, has increased oil exports under an OPEC+ agreement.

* Kuwait's oil production capacity reaches 3.2 million barrels a day

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled lower by -1.77% at 249.7, pressured by ample storage levels following a larger-than-expected injection. U.S. utilities added 90 bcf into storage during the week ending September 12, surpassing forecasts of 81 bcf and well above last year’s 56 bcf build and the five-year average of 74 bcf. This left inventories 0.1% below last year’s levels but still 6.3% above the five-year average, highlighting comfortable supply. Despite the bearish storage news, downside remained limited by forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather through early October, boosting near-term cooling demand. On the demand side, LSEG projected U.S. gas consumption, including exports, to climb from 101.1 bcfd last week to 104.2 bcfd this week. At the same time, production eased to 107.3 bcfd so far in September, down from a record 108.3 bcfd in August, offering some support to prices. Hurricane Gabrielle’s intensification added further weather-related uncertainty to supply-demand balances. From a broader perspective, the EIA projected record U.S. output at 106.6 bcfd and consumption at 91.5 bcfd in 2025 before slight easing in 2026, alongside higher LNG exports, which are expected to reach 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Rising gas prices relative to oil in 2026 are expected to redirect drilling activity toward gas-focused regions. Technically, natural gas is under long liquidation, with open interest pluging by -24.73% to 17,948 as prices declined by 4.5 rupees. Immediate support lies at 245.3, with further downside potential to 240.9, while resistance is placed at 257.2 and a breakout could push prices toward 264.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 240.9-264.7.

* Natural gas fell due to ample amounts of gas in storage after a larger-than-expected injection last week.

* Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain warmer than normal through at least October 4.

* U.S. EIA said energy firms injected 90 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled higher by 0.40% at 910.25, supported by short covering though gains were capped by rising inventories and a weak global economic backdrop. Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed inventories rising 12.5% to the highest since June at 105,814 tons, while LME stocks surged 56% over the past three months. Chinese consumers are restocking ahead of the October 1–8 public holiday, though overall activity is likely to remain subdued. On the demand outlook, Citi projects refined copper consumption to grow 2.9% in 2025 to 27.5 million tons, shifting the global market into a 308,000-ton deficit from this year’s 63,000-ton surplus. Supply-side dynamics added mixed signals. China’s copper output dropped 5% in early September, reducing global refined supply by around 500,000 tons, partly offset by production growth in Chile. Codelco’s output rose 6.4% to 118,500 tons in July, while Escondida posted a 7.8% increase to 114,800 tons. In contrast, Collahuasi saw production slump 27.2% to 34,200 tons. The ICSG reported a 36,000-ton global surplus in June, narrowing from 79,000 tons in May, with the first half of 2025 showing a 251,000-ton surplus compared with 395,000 tons a year earlier. On trade flows, China’s copper concentrate imports rose 8% in August to 2.76 million tons, reaching 20.05 million tons in the first eight months, up from 18.59 million last year. % to 2,587. Immediate support lies at 906.2, with further weakness likely to test 902.2, while resistance is at 912.8, and a breakout above could target 915.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 902.2-915.4.

* Copper dropped on profit booking restrained by climbing inventories and a weak global economic backdrop.

* SHFE Copper inventories climbed by 12.5% to the highest since early June at $105,814 tons.

* LME stocks have jumped 56% over the past three months.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled higher by 0.58% at 277.85, supported by tightening supply signals and falling global inventories. LME zinc stocks dropped to their lowest since May 23 at 48,825 tons, reflecting an 80% slump this year. The cash LME zinc premium over the three-month contract climbed to $51 a ton, its highest since October 2023, further highlighting supply tightness. On the domestic front, China’s zinc production in August reached its highest monthly level since Q1 2024, though September output is expected to dip slightly by 16,400 mt to 609,800 mt due to operational constraints. Despite increased zinc inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, up 4.9% from last Friday, supply concerns remain, with smelters facing production pressure from oversupplied capacity, weather disruptions, and rising costs. Earlier, Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar cut its annual production by 25%, pointing to tightening global supply. Meanwhile, Chinese refined zinc production in July surged 23% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month, supported by resumed operations after maintenance in multiple provinces and capacity additions in Henan and Yunnan. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest fell -22.19% to 1,813. Immediate support is placed at 275.9, with a decline below opening downside targets at 273.7. On the upside, resistance is seen at 280.6, and a move beyond this could extend gains toward 283.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 273.7-283.1.

* Zinc gained as LME zinc stocks fell their lowest since May 23 at 48,825 tons.

* Zinc supported as LME cash premium hits $51/T, highest since Oct, on falling stocks

* China's central bank left a key interest rate unchanged, as authorities appear in no rush to ease monetary settings.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled lower by -0.78% at 255.2 as global supply growth and mixed demand dynamics weighed on sentiment. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output in August rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.277 million tonnes, while China’s domestic production increased 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM, reinforcing abundant supply conditions. Despite this, speculative buying and firm physical demand triggered a sharp drawdown in LME aluminium stocks, which plunged nearly 100,000 tonnes to 375,000 in the first part of September. On the fundamentals side, supply risks emerged after Guinea Alumina lost all mining licenses, potentially disrupting ore shipments that feed Emirates Global Aluminium. Meanwhile, WBMS data highlighted a persistent supply deficit, with July’s global production at 6.127 million mt against consumption of 6.2469 million mt, leaving a shortfall of 119,900 mt. From January–July 2025, the cumulative deficit stood at 985,300 mt. In China, inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 0.6% from last Friday, pointing to steady demand. Trade data showed unwrought aluminium exports in July rose to 542,000 tonnes, while August imports grew 12.9% YoY to 320,000 tonnes, lifting cumulative imports for Jan–Aug 2025 by 2.7% from last year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell by -17.69% to 2,559, alongside a price drop of -2 rupees. Immediate support is placed at 253.6, with a break lower opening downside potential toward 252. On the upside, resistance is seen at 257.4, and a move above this could test 259.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 252-259.6.

* Aluminium dropped as Global aluminium output rises 0.9% year on year in August

* China’s domestic aluminium production in August 2025 increased 1.22% YoY and 0.33% MoM.

* Japan's August aluminium stocks rise 6.3% m/m.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.18% at 12314 as selling pressure emerged amid expectations of higher acreage supported by favourable rains this season. However, the downside remained capped due to reports of crop damage from recent heavy rainfall, especially in Nanded, where nearly 15% of the crop area has been affected. Concerns have risen further after IMD forecast normal to below-normal September rainfall across parts of South India. At the same time, farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted, with no fresh arrivals over the past two days, providing additional support to prices. On the production side, preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage may rise 15-20% in 2024-25 as farmers shift away from less profitable alternatives, with the total area recorded at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. At the Duggirala market, robust demand for fresh arrivals continues, with new crop fetching premiums over old stock, indicating healthy quality-driven buying. Trade activity remains strong at 1,000–1,200 bags per day, with nearly 50–55% of the new crop already marketed. Government procurement initiatives in Himachal Pradesh are also expected to support farmers. On the export front, shipments during Apr–July 2025 rose by 2.29% to 63,020.23 tonnes versus last year, though July exports slipped marginally by 0.27% month-on-month, they surged 9.31% compared to June 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling with open interest rising 0.37% to 16,285. Support is seen at 12198 and below at 12084, while resistance is expected at 12488, with a breakout above likely testing 12664.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12084-12664.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* While downside capped as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12836.05 Rupees dropped by -0.83 percent.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled marginally lower by -0.08% at 19,530 as weak domestic and export demand weighed on the market following the conclusion of the retail season. The downside was, however, limited after the GST council reduced the GST rate to 5%, which is expected to support FMCG exports and domestic consumption. Traders highlighted that the fall was largely driven by subdued foreign buying activity and comfortable domestic supplies. Farmers still hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3–4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is anticipated to be similar to last year due to favorable crop conditions and good sowing. Geopolitical disruptions in key jeera-producing countries such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have constrained supplies, but limited export demand from India continues to pressure market sentiment. Estimates indicate domestic cumin production at 90–92 lakh bags this year, down from 1.10 crore bags last year. Gujarat and Rajasthan are expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags and 48–50 lakh bags, respectively. Jeera exports during April–July 2025 fell sharply by 19.81% to 73,026.35 tonnes compared with the same period last year. July exports dropped 20.83% YoY and 15.58% MoM. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest declining -5.9% to 3,591. Support is placed at 19,460, with further weakness potentially testing 19,400. Resistance is seen at 19,620, and a breakout above could push prices toward 19,720.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19400-19720.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19411.4 Rupees dropped by -0.27 percent.

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