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Gold

Gold prices slipped sharply by 2.19% to ?1,27,008 as sentiment turned cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that the elevated tariffs on Chinese goods may not remain in place for long, raising hopes of easing trade tensions ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Earlier, Trump had threatened an additional 100% tariff by November, but his latest remarks signaled a softer stance. Meanwhile, dovish comments from Fed officials supported expectations of further rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 25 bps cut in both October and December meetings. HSBC lifted its long-term gold forecast, projecting prices to reach $5,000/oz by 2026, citing geopolitical and fiscal risks as key drivers. Physical demand across Asia remained robust despite record-high prices. In India, premiums surged to a decade-high of $25/oz amid festival-driven buying and supply constraints, even as smuggling rose due to inflated domestic rates. In contrast, Chinese bullion traded at steep discounts of $20–$66/oz below global prices as local investors shifted focus to equities. Data showed Switzerland’s gold exports to China jumped 254% in August to 35 tons, while shipments to India also rose to 15.2 tons. Technically, gold is witnessing long liquidation with open interest falling by 4.27% to 14,817. The metal has immediate support at Rs 1,24,545 and could test Rs 1,22,080 if selling persists, while resistance is seen near Rs 1,30,885 and further at Rs 1,34,760.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 122080-134760.

* Gold dropped after President Donald Trump signaled that the high tariffs on Chinese goods would not remain in place long term.

* Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut by the U.S. Fed in October with another in December, seen as 98% and 95% chances respectively.

* HSBC raised its forecasts as a bull rally gained momentum, projecting gold to reach $5,000 an ounce in 2026.

Silver

Silver prices plunged sharply by 6.6% to Rs 1,56,604 as U.S. President Donald Trump admitted that the proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods would not be sustainable, easing trade tensions and triggering profit booking. Despite the steep correction, silver remains higher for the week, marking its ninth consecutive weekly gain, supported earlier by concerns over U.S. regional bank instability, geopolitical risks, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Broader support also stemmed from rising U.S. debt levels and government spending, boosting safe-haven appeal. A notable development in the physical market was a liquidity crunch in London’s silver trade, which sparked a global rush for physical supply. Strong Indian demand further tightened the market, even prompting some mutual funds to pause inflows into silver ETFs. The effective federal funds rate rose slightly to 4.11%, remaining within the Fed’s 4%–4.25% target range. Global silver ETP holdings reached 1.13 billion ounces by June 2025, with inflows of 95 Moz in the first half, surpassing last year’s total and lifting total holdings’ value beyond $40 billion for the first time. According to the Silver Institute, the global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 Moz in 2025 as supply rises and demand eases marginally. Industrial demand is seen steady, while investment demand is rebounding, particularly in India. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure with open interest up 1.04% to 24,267. Support is placed at ?1,50,065 and Rs 1,43,525, while resistance is seen at ?1,66,780 and Rs 1,76,955.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 143525-176955.

* Silver dropped after Trump acknowledged that his proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods is not sustainable.

* Earlier prices reached all time high of 1,70,000 amid concerns over rising US debt and government spending, and expectations of more Federal Reserve rate cuts.

* A liquidity crunch in London’s silver market triggered a global scramble for physical supply, while strong Indian demand further tightened the market.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged lower by 0.26% to ?5,053 as market sentiment weakened following the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) forecast of a growing supply glut in 2026 and news that U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to meet again to discuss the Ukraine situation. Adding pressure, the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories rising sharply by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels, far exceeding expectations for a modest 288,000-barrel build. The increase was mainly driven by lower refinery utilization, which fell 6.7 percentage points to 85.7% as refineries entered seasonal maintenance. U.S. production also climbed to a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks declined by 267,000 barrels, and distillate inventories dropped by a significant 4.5 million barrels, reflecting tighter product supply. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by 703,000 barrels, and net U.S. crude imports fell sharply by 1.75 million barrels per day. OPEC maintained its oil demand growth forecast for 2025–2026 but indicated a smaller supply deficit ahead as OPEC+ accelerates its output increases, raising concerns about potential oversupply in the coming year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down sharply by 49.37% to 4,622. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs 4,940 and may test Rs 4,828 on further weakness, while resistance is seen at ?5,210 and ?5,368 on the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 4828-5368.

* Crude oil prices edged lower after the IEA forecasts a growing glut.

* U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet again to discuss Ukraine.

* U.S. crude inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels last week.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 2% to ?265.1 amid a decline in U.S. output and strong demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and below the August record of 108 bcfd, according to LSEG data. The drop in output, combined with record-high LNG flows, supported prices even as mild weather forecasts limited further gains. Updated models indicated warmer-than-normal conditions through late October, delaying the onset of heating demand until the final week of the month, NatGasWeather noted. U.S. utilities injected 80 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas into storage for the week ending October 10, aligning with expectations. Total inventories now stand at 3,721 Bcf, 0.7% above last year’s level and 4.3% higher than the five-year seasonal average. The earlier surge in production has left storage well-supplied, easing concerns of winter shortages. Meanwhile, LNG exports continue to strengthen, with average flows to U.S. liquefaction plants at 16.3 bcfd in October and daily feedgas hitting a six-month high of 17 bcfd following the restart of Berkshire Hathaway’s Cove Point terminal. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest fell by 13.83% to 34,512 while prices gained Rs 5.2. Natural gas has immediate support at Rs 257.7 and Rs 250.3, while resistance is seen at Rs 269.5 and Rs 273.9 on the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 250.3-273.9.

* Natural gas gained amid decline in output and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

* However, upside seen limited amid mild weather forecasts and robust storage levels eased concerns over supply tightness.

* NatGasWeather said that significant cooling may not arrive until the final week of the month.

Copper

Copper prices declined by 1.08% to ?983.1, tracking a broad selloff in global financial stocks as renewed concerns over credit stress at U.S. regional banks weighed on market sentiment. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 550 tons to 110,240 tons, the highest since late April, signaling steady supply conditions. In China, persistent deflationary pressures and a prolonged property downturn have raised expectations for fresh monetary stimulus to support demand. Meanwhile, the premium for LME cash copper over the three-month contract narrowed to $32 per ton after touching $227 earlier in the week, reflecting easing tightness as traders rolled over short positions. On the supply side, global disruptions continue to offer some support, with Chile’s Codelco reporting its lowest production in over two decades and Indonesia’s Grasberg mine facing shipment delays due to a fatal mudslide and export license expiry. Despite these issues, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a global refined copper surplus of 57,000 tons in July and projected a surplus of about 178,000 tons for 2025, before shifting to a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026. Demand from data centers is emerging as a new growth driver, expected to reach 260,000 tons in 2025 and 650,000 tons by 2030. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 7.19% to 5,382. Copper has support at ?975.9 and Rs 968.6, while resistance is seen at Rs 992.5 and Rs 1,001.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 968.6-1001.8.

* Copper fell tracking a fall in global financial stocks as signs of credit stress at U.S. regional banks rattled markets.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.5% from last Friday

* In China, hopes for fresh monetary stimulus were high after data showed that deflationary pressures persisted in September

Zinc

Zinc prices slipped by 0.33% to ?290.45, tracking weakness across industrial metals amid a selloff in U.S. regional bank shares that reignited concerns over credit risks and global economic growth. Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose by 2.5% from last week, signaling moderate supply pressure. However, losses were limited on expectations of potential capacity cuts by Chinese miners and refiners. The premium for the LME cash zinc contract over the three-month contract eased to $75 per ton from $202 earlier in the week, reflecting reduced near-term tightness. Still, low LME warehouse stocks — at their lowest since early 2023 — keep the market prone to volatility. On the supply front, Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting announced a 6.6% year-on-year decline in refined zinc output for the second half of FY2025–26, while Toho Zinc’s Annaka plant closure is expected to curb regional production. Meanwhile, Ivanhoe Mines reported record zinc production of 57,200 tons in Q3 from its African operations, with a 37% quarterly jump at the Kipushi mine. The global zinc market swung to a surplus of 30,200 tons in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), while the cumulative surplus for 2025 so far stands at 72,000 tons. Technically, the market is under long liquidation with open interest down 4.56% to 2,572. Zinc has support at Rs 288.3 and Rs 286.2, while resistance is seen at Rs 292 and Rs 293.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 286.2-293.6.

* Zinc dropped following a rout in U.S. regional banking shares on worries about mounting risks and credit quality.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.5% from last Friday.

* The global refined zinc markets are set for larger surpluses in 2026, the ILZSG said.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped by 0.57% to ?261.95 as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that high tariffs on Chinese goods may not remain long term, hinting at a possible easing of trade tensions ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Market sentiment remained focused on U.S.-China trade developments, with investors cautious amid shifting policy signals. On the supply side, China reduced its annual output growth target for base metals to 1.5% for 2025–2026, aligning with the aluminium production cap of 45 million tons amid efforts to curb overcapacity and deflationary pressures. China exported 521,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products in September, slightly down from 534,000 tonnes in August, while imports rose 12.9% year-on-year to 320,000 tonnes. Domestic aluminium production in September increased by 1.14% YoY but fell 3.18% MoM, with the liquid aluminium ratio rebounding to 76.3%. Casting ingot volumes dropped 8.67% YoY to about 857,000 tonnes, signaling tighter supply of ingots. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% YoY to 6.277 million tonnes in August, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest down 9.98% to 2,462 as prices fell Rs 1.5. Aluminium has immediate support at Rs 260.4 and Rs 258.9, while resistance is placed at Rs 263.7 and ?265.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.9-265.5.

* Aluminium dropped after Trump signaled that the high tariffs on Chinese goods would not remain in place long term.

* China exported 521,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, in September, down from August's 534,000 tonnes.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2.2% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 0.44% to ?14,728 amid concerns over crop damage in key growing regions of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka due to excessive rainfall. The continuous rains in Erode have not only increased arrivals from other states but also triggered disease outbreaks, making storage and preservation difficult. Heavy rainfall in Nanded further worsened conditions, affecting nearly 15% of the crop area. This supply disruption has supported prices, though gains remain capped by expectations of higher acreage this season, supported by favorable early rains and better sowing conditions. In Warangal, farmers’ turmeric stocks are almost depleted, and the absence of new arrivals in recent days has added to the firmness in spot markets. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could increase by 15–20% for the 2024–25 season, reaching 3.30 lakh hectares compared to 3 lakh hectares last year. At the Duggirala market, strong buyer demand for fresh crop arrivals continues, with newer stock fetching a premium due to superior quality. Meanwhile, turmeric exports during April–July 2025 rose by 2.29% to 63,020 tonnes from 61,610 tonnes a year earlier, while July exports increased 9.31% month-on-month, reflecting improving global demand. Technically, the market witnessed fresh buying as open interest rose slightly by 0.04% to 12,215 contracts, while prices gained Rs 64. Turmeric finds support at Rs 14,500 and Rs 14,270, whereas resistance is likely at Rs 14,970 and Rs 15,210. A move above Rs 15,210 could open the door for further bullish momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14270-15210.

* Turmeric gains as yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.

* Also, due to continuous rains in Erode, disease outbreaks have started emerging in some areas.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13895.65 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices edged higher by 0.37% to Rs 19,225 on short covering after recent declines triggered by subdued export demand following the end of the retail season. The downside remained limited as sentiment improved after the GST Council reduced the tax rate to 5%, a move expected to boost FMCG exports and support domestic consumption. Despite this, overall market tone stayed cautious due to comfortable supply levels and weak overseas interest, as current export requirements are largely being met from existing stocks. Farmers are reportedly holding around 20 lakh bags of cumin, of which only 3–4 lakh bags may be traded before the season’s end, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags. Production prospects also remain stable, with national output projected at around 90–92 lakh bags this season, down slightly from last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat is expected to produce 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan’s crop is pegged at 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, production estimates have been revised downward in China, Syria, and Turkey due to adverse weather, which could eventually support Indian exports once demand revives. However, jeera exports during April–July 2025 fell 19.81% year-on-year to 73,026 tonnes, reflecting sluggish global demand. Technically, the market witnessed short covering as open interest declined by 0.67% to 3,558 contracts while prices rose Rs 70. Jeera has immediate support at Rs 19,160 and Rs 19,070, whereas resistance is seen at Rs 19,300 and Rs 19,350. A breakout above Rs 19,350 could trigger further upside momentum.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19070-19350.

* Jeera gains on short covering after price dropped due to weak export demand post retail season.

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18796.35 Rupees dropped by -0.68 percent.

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