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Gold

Gold settled higher by 0.74% at Rs 144,138, supported by falling crude oil prices that eased inflation concerns ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. However, gains were limited by a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields, as markets remained concerned that interest rates could stay higher for longer. Traders are pricing in an 82% probability of a US rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Analysts lowered their 2026 gold price forecast to $4,495 per troy ounce from $4,509 previously, citing strong Treasury yields, dollar strength and tighter monetary policy expectations, while maintaining a recovery outlook for 2027. Goldman Sachs retained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400 per ounce, highlighting continued central bank diversification as a key long-term driver. China's central bank extended its gold buying streak to 23 consecutive months in September, increasing holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces from 76.73 million ounces in August, although the value of its reserves declined to $323.52 billion. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports rose 6% month-on-month to 165.2 tonnes in September, their highest level since February 2025, driven by increased shipments to Britain, while exports to China and India declined. Physical gold demand in India improved as lower prices during the Dussehra festival boosted purchases, with domestic premiums rising to $9 per ounce, while Chinese jewellery demand remained subdued. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 2.34% to 15,622 contracts while prices increased by Rs 1,065. Gold has support at Rs 142,740, followed by Rs 141,340, while resistance is placed at Rs 144,900. A sustained move above Rs 144,900 could push prices towards Rs 145,670, whereas a break below Rs 142,740 may trigger further downside towards Rs 141,340.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 141340-145670.

• Gold gained as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

• Traders price in 82% chance of a Fed rate hike in December

• COMEX gold speculative net longs fell 2,392 contracts to 108,685;

• Gold expected to average $4,495/oz in 2026, $4,650 in 2027

Silver

Silver settled higher by 0.47% at Rs 196,717, supported by easing inflation concerns as crude oil prices declined ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. However, gains remained limited by a stronger US dollar, which rose to 102.2 for a third consecutive session, and elevated Treasury yields. Markets are expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, while investors will closely monitor its guidance on the possibility of a December rate hike. US durable goods orders increased 1.8% month-on-month in September, exceeding expectations of 1.5%, while building permits declined 0.4% to an annualised rate of 1.398 million. Analysts lowered their silver price outlook amid expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, forecasting an average price of $66.75 per ounce in 2027 compared with $70.30 for 2026. Despite recent weakness, the silver market remains structurally tight, with the global deficit projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, marking a sixth consecutive year of deficit. Total demand is expected to decline 2% due to weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, while coin and bar demand is forecast to increase 18%. Industrial silver fabrication is projected to fall 3% to a four-year low, reflecting concerns over global economic growth. Global silver supply is expected to decline 2%, while approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting persistent supply risks. Silver prices have fallen around 35% from their January record high of $121.60 per ounce, although improving liquidity in the London market has eased immediate supply pressures. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.86% to 16,539 contracts while prices increased by Rs 924. Silver has support at Rs 193,030, followed by Rs 189,340, while resistance is placed at Rs 198,900. A sustained move above Rs 198,900 could push prices towards Rs 201,080, whereas a break below Rs 193,030 may trigger further downside towards Rs 189,340.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 189340-201080.

• Silver prices recovered, rebounding from 11-month lows as declining oil prices eased inflation concerns ahead of Fed meeting.

• However, gains remained limited by a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields.

• COMEX silver speculative net longs fell 1,988 contracts to 3,746.

• Silver expected to average $70.30/oz in 2026, $66.75 in 2027

Crude oil

Crude oil settled lower by 2.31% at Rs 9,498, pressured by renewed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war, which raised hopes of easing geopolitical tensions and improving energy supply conditions. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei called for an end to the current state of neither war nor peace, while diplomatic discussions involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signaled potential progress towards negotiations. However, downside remained limited by persistent supply risks, as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and escalating security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz threatened regional oil flows. Gulf crude exports declined for a fourth consecutive week, with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz running at approximately 60% of normal levels. US crude inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, exceeding expectations for a decline of 820,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories dropped by 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels, contrary to expectations for a decline. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its outlook for 2027 amid expectations of inventory rebuilding and deferred demand recovery. OPEC also reported higher September production across the wider OPEC+ group, led by a substantial increase in Saudi Arabian output. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although output remained below year-ago levels amid ongoing refinery disruptions. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 3.26% to 14,165 contracts while prices fell by Rs 225. Crude oil has support at Rs 9,380, followed by Rs 9,265, while resistance is placed at Rs 9,705. A sustained move above Rs 9,705 could push prices towards Rs 9,915, whereas a break below Rs 9,380 may extend the decline towards Rs 9,265.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9265-9915.

• Crude oil fell as renewed diplomatic efforts raised hopes of ending the US-Iran war and easing pressure on energy markets.

• October attacks on commercial shipping were highest near Hormuz since 2017

• CFTC: As of the week ended Oct 20, speculative net long positions in WTI crude rose by 311 contracts to 110,930 contracts.

• Investors are also monitoring upcoming elections, including in Israel, for potential implications for regional stability and oil supply.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled lower by 1.23% at Rs 288.4, pressured by forecasts of above-normal temperatures across most of the northern two-thirds of the United States, which are expected to limit near-term heating demand. Prices also faced pressure from recovering production, with output across the US Lower 48 states averaging around 113.3 billion cubic feet per day over the past week. However, average production so far in October remained lower at 111.6 billion cubic feet per day, while gas flows to the nine major liquefied natural gas export terminals increased to 18.2 billion cubic feet per day from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September, providing some underlying support. US natural gas inventories increased by 77 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 16, below market expectations of 79 billion cubic feet and the five-year average injection of 87 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.644 trillion cubic feet, remaining 4% below year-ago levels but 1% above the five-year average. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to increase to 92.4 billion and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. Liquefied natural gas exports are forecast to reach 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per million British thermal units from $3.50, citing stronger production growth and expectations of a comfortable supply-demand balance. The bank expects supply to exceed demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest increasing 15.68% to 50,788 contracts while prices declined by Rs 3.6. Natural gas has support at Rs 283.50, followed by Rs 279.00, while resistance is placed at Rs 293.00. A sustained move above Rs 293.00 could push prices towards Rs 297.50, whereas a break below Rs 283.50 may extend the decline towards Rs 279.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 279.00-297.50.

• Natural gas prices dropped as warm weather forecasts dampened expectations for near-term heating demand.

• Prices faced pressure from a recovery in daily production, with output across the US Lower 48 states averaging around 113.3 bcfd

• Speculative net short positions across four major NYMEX and ICE natural gas markets increased by 26,764 contracts to 126,900 contracts.

• Average gas flows to the nine major LNG export terminals rose to 18.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 17.9 bcfd in September

Copper

Copper settled higher by 0.88% at Rs 1,405.35, supported by improving sentiment around artificial intelligence stocks and stronger demand from China, although a firmer US dollar capped gains. China's Yangshan copper import premium surged to nearly a 13-year high of $188 per tonne, highlighting strong demand for imported metal, while the London Metal Exchange cash contract traded at a $199.50 per tonne premium over the three-month forward contract, indicating near-term supply tightness. China's economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, while September industrial production increased 5.5%, supporting the demand outlook. Chinese copper imports rose 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September. However, supply disruptions at major mines in Chile and Peru continue to influence market sentiment. Chilean state miner Codelco reported an 8.9% annual increase in August production to 101,700 tonnes, while output at Escondida declined 27.6% to 76,100 tonnes and Collahuasi production fell 25.1% to 26,500 tonnes. Peru's copper output also declined 5% year-on-year in August. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening markets outside the United States. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July. It projected the global refined copper surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, as production growth is expected to outpace consumption. Refined copper usage is forecast to increase by 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, supported by electrification, renewable energy, digitalisation and data centre demand. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 20.84% to 6,749 contracts while prices rose by Rs 12.3. Copper has support at Rs 1,395.50, followed by Rs 1,386.00, while resistance is placed at Rs 1,410.50. A sustained move above Rs 1,410.50 could push prices towards Rs 1,416.00, whereas a break below Rs 1,395.50 may trigger a decline towards Rs 1,386.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1386.00-1416.00.

• Copper rose as sentiment around AI stocks recovered and demand strengthened in China.

• The surge in the Yangshan premium hit a nearly 13-year high of $188 a ton— highlights the scramble for available metal.

• The cash LME copper contract last traded at a $199.50-a-ton premium over the three-month forward.

Zinc

Zinc settled higher by 1.55% at Rs 419.05, supported by declining inventories, elevated electricity costs and tight near-term supply conditions. Stocks held on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5% week-on-week to 137,139 tonnes, their lowest level since March, while London Metal Exchange inventories stood at 133,700 tonnes. The LME cash zinc contract traded at a premium of around $80 per tonne over the three-month forward contract, indicating immediate supply tightness. Supply concerns were reinforced by a 3.4% year-on-year decline in Western refined zinc production during the first half of 2026, as high energy costs and limited raw material availability weighed on smelting operations. Uncertainty surrounding Nyrstar’s strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands further added to supply risks. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, although expectations of recovering Chinese mine output and improved concentrate availability could limit further gains. The global refined zinc market shifted to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August from a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group. However, the market recorded a surplus of 96,000 tonnes during the first eight months of 2026, lower than the 133,000-tonne surplus in the corresponding period last year. The ILZSG expects the global refined zinc market to move from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, with refined production forecast to rise 2% to 14.21 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is projected to increase 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, supported by stronger consumption in Europe, India and the United States, while slower Chinese demand growth amid weakness in the property sector could restrain the outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 10.75% to 1,618 contracts while prices rose by Rs 6.4. Zinc has support at Rs 412.50, followed by Rs 406.00, while resistance is placed at Rs 422.50. A sustained move above Rs 422.50 could push prices towards Rs 426.00, whereas a break below Rs 412.50 may trigger a decline towards Rs 406.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 406.00-426.00.

• Zinc rose supported by declining inventories, high electricity costs and tight near-term supply. Stocks

• Stocks held on the SHFE dropped 5% from the previous week to 137,139 tonnes, marking their lowest level since March.

• Uncertainty over the future of Nyrstar’s loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands has also raised some concerns over the supply outlook.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled higher by 1.4% at Rs 332.15, supported by improving macroeconomic sentiment following a stock market rally and resilient demand in China. Falling inventories provided additional support, with stocks at three major Japanese ports declining 9.5% month-on-month to 223,200 tonnes at the end of September, while London Metal Exchange inventories fell to 234,100 tonnes. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange also declined 10.2% week-on-week. However, gains remained limited by a stronger US dollar, caution ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting and concerns over a potential global surplus in 2027. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined 1.4% year-on-year to 6.014 million tonnes in September. Meanwhile, China maintained strong production levels, with third-quarter output increasing 2.2% year-on-year to a record quarterly high of 11.84 million tonnes. Production during the first nine months rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, supported by strong smelting margins and high operating rates. Supply concerns from the Gulf region eased as Emirates Global Aluminium restarted 631 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, with full production expected in the first quarter of 2027. Additional supply from Indonesia and rising Chinese exports are also expected to ease market tightness. Indonesian aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year-on-year. Analysts expect the global aluminium market to move into a surplus potentially exceeding one million tonnes in 2027, driven by new Indonesian capacity and recovering Gulf production. Japanese buyers agreed to premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting easing supply concerns. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 16.4% to 4,245 contracts while prices rose by Rs 4.6. Aluminium has support at Rs 328.00, followed by Rs 323.50, while resistance is placed at Rs 334.50. A sustained move above Rs 334.50 could push prices towards Rs 337.00, whereas a break below Rs 328.00 may trigger a decline towards Rs 323.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 323.50-337.00.

• Aluminium gains supported by improving macroeconomic sentiment tied to a stock market rally and demand strength in China.

• Japan's September aluminium stocks down 9.5% m/m

• Global primary aluminium output in September fell 1.4% year on year to 6.014 million tonnes.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled lower by 1.22% at Rs 26,984 due to profit booking after recent gains driven by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Declining carry-forward stocks and concerns over weather-related crop damage continued to provide underlying support. In Karnataka, drought conditions have affected turmeric cultivation across 13,446 hectares, with estimated crop losses valued at Rs 18,824 lakh, according to a joint survey by the state departments of horticulture and revenue and the Karnataka State Disaster Management Authority. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from over 20 lakh bags last season, tightening overall availability. Concerns over El Niño-related dry spells and lower-than-expected acreage expansion in some key growing regions also supported prices. However, India's turmeric production is projected to increase by around 15% in 2026, supported by an estimated 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased crop damage concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, improving crop prospects. Meanwhile, stringent European Union maximum residue limit requirements are creating challenges for non-IPM-compliant supplies, while demand for certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026 from 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to the UAE, the Netherlands and Brazil rose 50%, 57% and 37%, respectively, in August, while exports to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined sharply. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices increased 0.89% to Rs 25,304.95. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.6% to 18,555 contracts while prices declined by Rs 332. Turmeric has support at Rs 26,330, followed by Rs 25,680, while resistance is placed at Rs 27,750. A sustained move above Rs 27,750 could push prices towards Rs 28,520, whereas a break below Rs 26,330 may extend the decline towards Rs 25,680.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 25680-28520.

• Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling.

• Concerns were lingering amid worries about El Niño–type patterns and the potential impact of dry spells on yield formation.

• Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 25304.95 Rupees gained by 0.89 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled lower by 1.49% at Rs 25,520 due to profit booking after recent gains, although tightness in nearby supplies and concerns over lower production continued to provide underlying support. The futures curve indicated continued near-term supply tightness, while shrinking availability of premium-quality bold seeds and tapering arrivals across major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan supported prices. Farmers have also been holding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period. However, upside remained limited as farmers liquidated stocks to generate cash for the upcoming season, NCDEX warehouse inventories increased and industrial spice processors continued hand-to-mouth purchasing. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has weighed on logistics and demand from traditional buyers, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria have pressured Indian export premiums. Estimates indicate that India's cumin production may decline to 90-92 lakh bags this year from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output projected at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has also reportedly reduced China's production outlook to 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes, respectively. India's jeera exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026 from 14,532 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes, while annual exports for September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. Shipments to the United States, Singapore and Mexico increased in August, but exports to the United Arab Emirates and Bangladesh declined sharply. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices edged down 0.05% to Rs 25,924.20. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, with open interest declining 4.1% to 8,493 contracts alongside a Rs 385 fall in prices. Jeera has support at Rs 25,300, followed by Rs 25,080, while resistance is placed at Rs 25,890. A sustained move above Rs 25,890 could push prices towards Rs 26,260, whereas a break below Rs 25,300 may extend weakness towards Rs 25,080.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25080-26260.

• Jeera on profit booking after prices GAINED rallied amid continued tightness with traders monitoring sowing and festival demand.

• Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

• Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 25924.2 Rupees dropped by 0.05 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views