Australia Forecasts Record Barley Output Amid Mixed Grain Prospects by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Australia’s grain outlook for marketing year 2026/27 presents mixed prospects, with record barley production offsetting a decline in wheat output. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, barley production is forecast at 17.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 4.4% year-on-year, while wheat production is projected to fall 11.1% to 32.0 MMT. Improved October rainfall has lifted sorghum production prospects to 2.3 MMT and increased milled rice production expectations to 195,000 MT. Wheat exports are forecast at 25.0 MMT, while barley exports may reach 13.0 MMT. Rice imports are projected to hit a record 325,000 MT.
Key Highlights
- Australian barley production is forecast to reach a record 17.7 MMT in 2026/27, up 4.4% year-on-year.
- Wheat production is projected to decline 11.1% to 32.0 MMT due to reduced acreage and regional weather concerns.
- Sorghum production forecasts increased to 2.3 MMT following widespread mid-October rainfall across major growing regions.
- Wheat exports are projected at 25.0 MMT, while barley exports could reach a record 13.0 MMT.
- Rice production is forecast at 195,000 MT, while imports are expected to hit a record 325,000 MT.
Australian wheat prices have gained support from improved international market conditions, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures for marketing year 2026/27 trading around 15% above the previous 10-year average as of October 15, 2026. Improved global wheat prices could encourage Australian growers and exporters to release stored supplies, supporting export volumes despite lower production. Meanwhile, stronger barley production and sustained Chinese demand are expected to keep Australia's grain export market active.
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), Australia's wheat production is forecast at 32.0 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27, down 11.1% from 36.0 MMT in the previous year. Reduced planting in Queensland and northern New South Wales, alongside higher nitrogen fertilizer costs, contributed to the decline. However, favorable rainfall and mild spring conditions across southern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia have improved crop development and grain-filling prospects.
In contrast, barley production is projected to reach a second consecutive record of 17.7 MMT, up 4.4% year-on-year. Higher fertilizer costs and concerns over El Niño-related moisture stress encouraged growers to shift acreage from wheat toward barley. Wheat exports are forecast at 25.0 MMT, supported by substantial carryover stocks, while barley exports could reach a record 13.0 MMT, driven primarily by Chinese demand.
Sorghum prospects have also improved following widespread rainfall in mid-October. Production is now forecast at 2.3 MMT, compared with the earlier estimate of 1.9 MMT. Exports are projected at 2.2 MMT, with China remaining the dominant buyer.
Rice production is forecast to recover to 195,000 MT on a milled basis as improved rainfall boosts irrigation water availability. However, output remains below historical levels, prompting expectations of record imports of 325,000 MT in 2026/27.
Australia's grain outlook remains mixed, with record barley supplies and stronger sorghum prospects offsetting lower wheat output and continued dependence on rice imports.
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